MANCHESTER – Semi-finals are upon us, and with that, comes the intrigue. Last week saw the end of the one-sided clashes – in theory at least, given that England stuck 60 on Samoa less than a month ago – and now we’re into the tough stuff.
We’re also far enough along that we can compare and contrast, with the sample size growing and more analysis possible. So what have we learned?
Well, Samoa are a lot better than they were at the start of the tournament, for one, and England are better yet. The Kangaroos were always good and the Kiwis might be good, or might be rubbish, or might be somewhere in between.
We can be pretty confident how each side is going to line up, so let’s break it all down.
Kangaroos v Kiwis
Right, well: the Kangaroos. I’m not sure Mal knows what his best team is, but they seem to be going great regardless, which will happen when all your players are really good.
I remain, as regular readers will know, wholly unconvinced on the policy of agile forwards over big guys, and that is about to be put to the test in Leeds on Friday night (Saturday morning AEDT).
Lebanon proved that it is more than possible to slow the Kangaroos down, and even though they didn’t get close to winning, they did make the Australian attack look less than fluent for long periods, especially in the second half.
Michael Cheika, as all of his players mentioned, took an active role in how the ruck worked – quelle surprise, you might say, from a rugby union coach – and got some rewards from it. Australia were blunted at times.
That said, they also – and Cheika said it post-match – blew the ruck apart in the first half and ran in so many tries that it didn’t really matter. So there’s that.
It’s obvious to say that this will come down to the forwards, but it’s obvious because its true. If New Zealand can win the ruck, they have the arsenal to win the game, but if they so much as draw in that area, the rest of the brilliance from Australia will shine through.
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Michael Maguire will likely opt for an entirely big man approach, with Jared Waerea-Hargreaves returning alongside the Bromwich brothers, James Fisher-Harris, Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Joseph Tapine. Isaiah Papali’i was used off the bench last week and may well be again, with Isaac Liu edged out to allow Jared to return.
The calculation has to be that the Kiwis can win the middle, draw the spine and have the outside backs not matter. They need to bully the Kangaroos, and that’s possible, especially is Reagan Campbell-Gillard fails to recover from his leg cork in time.
The spine battle is enticing, especially with Joey Manu and James Tedesco to face off from fullback, but they’ll both be working off the back of their big fellas. Michael Maguire’s game plan starts and ends there, or, at least, it should do.
The Kangaroos have vastly superior outside backs and the idea of Josh Addo-Carr and Latrell Mitchell running with a head of steam will give Madge nightmares. His boys in the middle need to stop them getting the ball.
(Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images)
England v Samoa
The forwards, too, are crucial to the second semi – though they may not prove decisive. Samoa struggled so badly in the first game because England dominated the contact, but largely that was through their backs.
For all we’d heard about the much-vaunted Samoan backline, fresh off a Premiership with Penrith, they had no answer to hard carries from Dom Young, Tommy Makinson, Kallum Watkins and Herbie Farnworth. England out-Samoaed Samoa.
That was due to two major factors. Firstly, England’s defensive linespeed was too much and continually forced Samoa to kick under pressure, which aided the start of their sets. Secondly, Samoa, for want of a better phrase, entered the contact with too much ego. They wanted to run straight over England, whereas England wanted to find their front.
Obviously, it would be better for Samoa if they didn’t try to do that again. Against the likes of Victor Radley and Tom Burgess, it won’t work. There seemed to have been a direction to hit with the upper body and enable second phase play – just imagine Junior Paulo and you’ll know what that looks like – but it catastrophically backfired.
The other major difference might be in the halves. George Williams is close to player of the tournament at this stage and had the ball on a string with his short kicking. Joseph Suaalii has impressed with the ball from fullback but is still a rookie and has been ruthlessly exposed by worse kickers than Williams at times in this tournament.
The set ends from Samoa were dreadful in week one, and while some of that was a function of England’s linespeed, a lot was Jarome Luai being a bad kicker and Anthony Milford having one of his many off-days.
He had an on-day last week and won man of the match against Tonga, but he’ll have to be better still if Samoa are going to defeat a red hot England. My suspicion is that he won’t be.
JennyFromPenny
Guest
Sure some out there would yearn for the Kangaroos to be Caucasian. So where would this team be from ? Not Australia, nor Terra Australis. I mean before that.
JennyFromPenny
Guest
One thing Samoa could easily improve is the kick off. Sua'ali'i just has no intention to kick it any further than 30m, as if it makes no difference where the set starts. Territory is the name of the game this world cup, and any first tackle made inside the opponents 10m, is worth gold. They made most of their first tackles on the 30m line. Not nearly good enough, and yet the only fix required, kick the damn thing further.
mushi
Roar Guru
The world cup looks more like an NRL heritage all star comp, which is cool and different. I wouldn't mind an aboriginal team.
mushi
Roar Guru
Yeah the focus on one aspect is odd. Power only matters if you still have line speed and vice versa. Both packs are great and this semi is the real final.
mushi
Roar Guru
Don't underestimate line speed difference as a counter for size, or the back three returns for that matter. Even turning it into a grind if the smaller pack meets you a metre earlier it matters. Particularly once grant comes on (big guys can't rush) I think it will actually come down to the engagement of the edges because I think the diametrically opposed motor and power will negate in the middle.
Rugbynutter
Roar Rookie
Yawn
JennyFromPenny
Guest
Radley included there ?
JennyFromPenny
Guest
Tonga beat NZ last World Cup in the quarters, then almost beat England in the semis, ranked No.#2 in the world since. This was five years ago. Tupou still plays for the Blues.
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Yes. Not sure what it's based on. Aussie front rowers Tino, Reg and Carrigan all among the best in the league. JFH and Tapine are as good. But the Storm pack didn't exactly set the comp alight this year. Yeo is the best lock in the modern game, with clear daylight to the next contender... a bloke called Murray who is playing in the second row. Off the bench you have Martin vs Nikora - no contest. And Foran vs Grant - nuff said.
Cam
Roar Rookie
England's line-speed is too good and will hand Samoa another touch-up, the Poms are going well and will be tough to beat in the final. I will be taking the +12.5 for the Kiwis. Temp will be 9 degrees in Leeds when the teams meet and should help the big Kiwi pack to get around the ground. It will also most likely be dry, which brings the Aussie backs into the frame. I'm not sure how relevant it will be, but the Kiwis had the advantage of knowing their best 17 coming into the World Cup, whereas Australia probably missed the opportunity to develop combinations by chopping and changing. I think NZ also will benefit from playing a tough match vs Fiji.
Big Daddy
Roar Rookie
If Samoa can beat England does this mean they become tier 1 and all their SOO player's become ineligible
souvalis
Roar Rookie
The disrespect for the Aussie forwards is mind boggling.
Dean
Roar Rookie
Hey Mike NZ v Oz is such a clash a contrasts with average forwards / strong backs v strong forwards / average backs. The trivia item for me is that the Kiwi style of pack is the one that I expected Mal to select and that his focus pre tournament would be to find enough big bodies when the first choices confirmed their heritage allegiance. I see this now as a test of frameworks and whether the Oz forwards can generate enough speed of play v whether the Kiwi forwards can turn it into a contest of strength. Samoa shows the difference between the tier 1 and 2 teams and the importance of an international standard player in every position. The lack of a genuine game manager undermines the quality across the rest of the park and elevates the expectations of Jarome Luai to be the dominant playmaker. He tends to play best in the Munster mould of being of being to pick and choose his moments, with Milford much the same. Very similar resource problem to many of the NRL clubs and puts a different context around Australia's quandary of Clearly v DCE as an embarrassment of riches.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Yep ! The first England v Samoa clash was an aberration in result. England were red hot and ably assisted by the officials, whilst Samoa were way down in showing their true abilities. This semi final will be much tighter. NZ & Australia have not really produced there best form as yet , and not sure they will this week either. As such, the Australians should have enough individual class to get them home.
Chris
Roar Pro
No matter how the Kiwis come into a match against Aus, they are always a great chance. It should be pretty close but I'm not sure Jahrome Hughes is 100%.
JennyFromPenny
Guest
They have him in. England needed him out.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Samoa really need Junior
Republican
Guest
......could be a NZ v Samoa final although I reckon Albion will be too good on home soil. I have little doubt the Kiwis will be in the final but v who?
JennyFromPenny
Guest
It's not too much surprise to see Samoa's fortunes turn around with the injection of Taylan May from week 2 on, replacing Tabua-Fidou. One of the best coming out of his own end, stinging defence and attack. If he was fit at the time, and chosen Australia as his jersey of choice, he would very much be pushing for one of the green and gold wing spots (as obviously would To'o). The loss of wrecking ball Paulo is one thing, but giving many more minutes to Spencer Leniu is a scarier thought. I mentioned after week 1 about the recollection of Parra going down to the Dragons 37-0 last round 2009, before back off the canvas prints to win 25-12 in the finals. Souths did the same this year. Feels a lot the same. Not to say Samoa laid down, but there was never any real danger of not finishing second in the pool, and looking at the draw pre-world cup to know it was last week's play-off to be back here again. Should be a good one. Sheek will be sh*tting himself.