Five reasons Australia can get out of their World Cup group

With just one week to go until the Socceroos open their sixth FIFA World Cup campaign against defending champions France, there has been a lot of pessimism around the potential for a successful tournament, and rightfully so.

You could argue that this is the worst Australian squad to represent the green and gold at the world’s biggest sporting event.

A lacklustre qualifying battle saw the Aussies finish third in their group to endure two gruelling play-off matches, not playing the best football by any stretch.

Coach Graham Arnold has also not helped spin the perception of the national team in a positive light, with many not a fan of the 59-year-old’s work.

The talent pool is not the same as in 2006 when the golden generation achieved Australia’s only knockout stage appearance and sent the country into a frenzy.

The hype is obviously nowhere near the same. Still, there are five genuine reasons that have not been talked about enough as to why Australia can raise eyebrows around the globe and qualify out of a group containing France, Denmark and Tunisia.

Some of these points may seem irrelevant, but it’s the small one-percenters that can make all the difference.

1. Familiarity playing in Qatar

Host country Qatar is going to provide many countries with challenges adapting, especially early on in the tournament.

The good news for Australia? The incredibly tough conditions have already been adapted to by playing multiple games in Doha.

The COVID situation forced Arnold’s men to play some of their ‘home’ games in Qatar and similar areas where the conditions are not much different.

Since 3 September 2021 the Socceroos have played five games in Qatar, winning all five. One was a friendly and the other four were qualifiers, including the two play-off legs against the UAE and Peru just a few months ago.

It represents such an advantage being familiar with the surroundings and what to expect, such as the hot weather, air-conditioned stadiums and the pace of the pitch.

Speaking about the experience gained from playing in the backyard of the World Cup hosts, Graham Arnold is adamant that this will help give Australia the upper hand.

“We’d had four games there and won all four games,” he said, per The Age. “The boys are extremely happy there, so for us to go into that game against France … we know what it’s like, and so it’ll be good for us, an advantage.”

(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

2. Scorching weather – just how Australia likes it

Back when Qatar were controversially awarded the hosting rights, they promised that the World Cup schedule would include the traditional June and July time slots in the calendar.

Instead, that promise was broken due to the 50-plus degree heat becoming an instrumental problem, forcing the date to be changed to November and December, when the weather can still reach deep into the 30s.

This plays perfectly into Australia’s hands.

Most of the players selected in Arnold’s 26-man squad have either previously played or currently play their football in the A-League, which is a summer competition, unlike the domestic leagues of most other countries competing in Qatar.

For those in the top European leagues, where they are not accustomed to playing in this sort of heat, it will come as a massive shock to the system.

That’s on top of the excruciating playing schedule that the best players and clubs have had to face, with matches being crammed in to accompany the World Cup, such as the Champions League group stages finishing one month earlier than usual.

Fitness is going to be a massive factor in who progresses deep in this tournament filled with uncertainty, but although players from France and Denmark are constantly playing at a high level, this may well be too much even for those professional athletes in the unpleasant heat.

(Photo by Mohamed Farag/Getty Images)

3. Australia to capitalise on France’s slow start

On paper it’s obvious that the Socceroos are absolutely miles off the pace in terms of quality, talent and experience compared to two-time world champions France.

According to Transfermarkt, France’s total squad value of $1.66 billion compared to Australia’s $59 million proves the gulf in class and the uphill battle that awaits the country from Down Under.

Barely anyone is willing to give the Aussies a chance to even make the contest relatively close, which would be tough to argue against.

Les Bleus are vulnerable though. Don’t be surprised if they struggle during the tournament.

One of the points that have already been mentioned is that Australia have adapted to the conditions, whereas France will be swimming in uncharted waters with only one week to prepare.

The big nations notoriously start off slow in major tournaments and then ease their way into form.

Incredibly, since 1998, four of the past five defending world champions have failed to make it past the group stages.

One of those teams coincidentally includes the French, who were knocked out early in 2002 after winning the World Cup four years prior.

They are known for creating unsettling disharmony in the dressing room, which was also evident back at the 2010 World Cup and was viewed as an embarrassment.

Key players such as Kylian Mbappé have recently caused unwanted attention for the team with his feud regarding image rights with the French Football Federation (FFF), while midfielder Adrien Rabiot is not always a well-liked figure, with his agent (his mum) known for making controversial comments.

Injuries are another key factor.

Stars such as Paul Pogba, N’Golo Kanté and Mike Maignan are pieces that coach Didier Deschamps will desperately miss despite the depth they possess.

Let’s not forget their form leading in. One win, two draws and three losses have been registered in the UEFA Nations League in a group containing Denmark, Croatia and Austria.

The chemistry has been lacking and the football they are playing demonstrates a worrying trend of inconsistency.

The Aussies kept it tight against Deschamps’s men in the opening match of the 2018 World Cup, narrowly losing 2-1.

Will France underestimate Australia too much?

(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

4. Ajdin Hrustic and Garang Kuol

As important as Aaron Mooy has been and still is to the make-up of Arnold’s side, 26-year-old attacking-midfielder Ajdin Hrustic is arguably Australia’s most important player.

Already establishing himself in Europe with Eintracht Frankfurt and now Hellas Verona in Italy’s top flight, Hrustic will be crucial in unlocking defences and being the attacking instigator, especially against teams like Denmark and Tunisia.

The No. 9 role has been an issue for the Socceroos for a number of years now, but the playmaker role occupied by Hrustic is in safe hands, with his football IQ and his ability to link up with the midfielders and forwards treasured assets.

He is by no means the answer in terms of where the goals are going to come from, but expect him to make a massive contribution and act as the talisman to push the Socceroos over the line.

Then there is an 18-year-old by the name of Garang Kuol, who has experienced his life change in the space of a few months.

His performance in the A-League all-stars match against Barcelona caught the attention of many before he was called up by Graham Arnold for his Socceroos debut, which led to Newcastle United securing the talented winger’s signature.

An argument could be put forward to suggest that his lack of game time with the Central Coast Mariners this season will hurt him during the World Cup.

That’s true. Fitness could play a part. No-one said he would be an automatic starter, though.

The feeling is that Arnold will use Kuol as an ace up his sleeve to bring on as a substitute to change games.

(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

This has been demonstrated at the Mariners, where Kuol has contributed with two goals and two assists in four matches despite not starting a single game.

The teenager is the most exciting prospect that Australia has produced since Daniel Arzani when he was hyped up at the previous World Cup.

Kuol’s pace, skill, flair and fearlessness to take the game on are what make him so special. He is not on the same level, but he keeps you on the edge of your seat like Kylian Mbappé and Rafael Leão and makes people think to themselves that something is always going to happen.

With not many games played, Australia’s three opponents will not have much video footage to go through and dissect.

His impact off the bench could be the difference between qualifying for the next round and being sent packing early.

Could this be the tournament in which Garang Kuol announces himself to the world?

5. A united group with low expectations

There’s no doubt that Graham Arnold has received criticism and been scrutinised for his style of coaching and tactical awareness, but one thing that he has been able to implement is a strong team bond that has translated onto the pitch.

This has helped through the COVID pandemic, which forced the players to be closer together in camp and understand each other’s strengths and weaknesses, creating a great environment.

Progressing to the World Cup after knocking out the UAE and Peru in one-off ties is by no means an easy feat, and it required mental strength and real unity to overcome those periods of being dominated. Peru is no pushover.

Just like any other World Cup, the expectations are going to be low for this green and gold outfit.

According to analysts Stats Insider, Australia is predicted to have a small 17.5 per cent chance of advancing out of Group D.

Let’s be honest, most realists are not expecting much from them in the next couple of weeks.

In saying that, the old cliche rings true in that the Socceroos, or any Australian sporting team for that matter, thrives on the underdog status and being up for the challenge.

Four points were accumulated in both the 2006 and the 2010 campaigns in tough groups. While in 2014 and 2018 we accumulated only the solidarity point combined, there were positive performances, such as the games against Holland, France and Denmark, where a true fight was shown.

The quality cannot be matched, but that Australian spirit with the weight of expectation lowered for a squad filled with a lot of inexperience can also be an underrated positive.

There are problems with this Australian team that cannot be denied, but what also cannot be denied is that you should never write off Australia causing surprises.

It is a massive ask to qualify out of this group but not an impossible one.