Carlton season preview: Can Blues return to the finals on the back of young stars?

2022 was a case of close, but no cigar, for the Blues. They saw themselves in the top four after nine games, and in the top eight for the entire season apart from in the last two minutes against the Pies in the last game of the season when Jamie Elliott broke navy blue hearts.

It was a season which showed plenty of promise, regardless of the heartbreak. The emergence of Charlie Curnow as one of, if not the best, key forward in the competition. The rise of Sam Walsh, and the reaffirming of Patrick Cripps being one of the games best players resulting in a Brownlow Medal.

What will be for the Blues in 2023? We are going to assess each position on the ground, the most important players, and where the season will be won or lost in 2023. Here is my best 22.

B: Caleb Marchbank, Jacob Weitering, Lewis Young
HB: Adam Saad, Mitch McGovern, Sam Docherty
C: Blake Acres, Patrick Cripps, Adam Cerra
HF: Jack Martin, Charlie Curnow, Jack Silvagni
F: Zac Fisher, Harry McKay, Jesse Motlop
FOLL: Marc Pittonet, Sam Walsh, George Hewett
I/C: Tom De Koning, Matt Kennedy, Nic Newman, Zac Williams

Defence

This is still the weakest position on the ground for Carlton in 2023 and it’s the area where I can see them being very vulnerable. We all know that Jacob Weitering is a star. He has been named in the All-Australian squad for the last three years and is arguably Carlton’s most important player. The issue is the other key defenders.

Lewis Young did improve as the season went along, but there are surely queries on his ability to be the second key defender in any finals-bound team. This is the year for him if he is to cement his spot in the team. He just turned 24 and should be nearing his peak.

Caleb Marchbank is a constant on the injury list. He has the ability, but it’s hard to trust him to get on to the park. And Mitch McGovern is very similar. He has played 12 out of a possible 44 games in the last two seasons. It’s fair to say that one of these two players need to have an injury-free season, or it will continue to be the Carlton Achilles heel.

The positive of the Carlton defence is that they can generate defence into attack very quickly with the likes of Adam Saad, Zach Williams, and Sam Docherty using various attributes to quickly transition. Saad was terrific last season and was rewarded with his first All-Australian blazer, whilst Sam Docherty averaged 28 disposals a game. This will continue to be an area of strength.

Midfield

The Blues have arguably a top-four midfield in the competition.

Patrick Cripps is the reigning Brownlow Medallist and is one of the best players in the game and Sam Walsh, who will miss a chunk of the season but be back in the second half of the year, is also one of the best midfielders in the game. They will lead this midfield again which ranked second in disposals per game and fourth in least opponent clearances per game in 2022.

Improvement will be decided by the likes of Adam Cerra, Matt Kennedy, Blake Acres, and Zac Fisher.

Carlton need Cerra to become a star. They traded the No.6 selection in the 2021 draft (Josh Rachele) for the Melbourne-born midfielder, who was taken at pick No.5 in 2017. He showed glimpses of brilliance in 2022 but it’s fair to say that his season was very similar to 2021 at Fremantle in which he showed little improvement. He needs to go from that 23 disposal-per-game midfielder to a player who averages 28 and kicks 12-15 goals a season.

Adam Cerra of the Blues runs with the ball. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

Zac Fisher is another who needs to improve. His goal kicking improved dramatically in 2022, but he needs to find more of the ball, and be better with it. With more midfield time expected, he needs to be doing what Cerra did in 2023, which is where the improvement will come from.

The Blues targeted a need in the off-season and recruited a true winger in Blake Acres. He had a career-best season in 2022, averaging a career high in disposals. I’m questioning this recruit though. His disposal efficiency is just okay for an outside player and at 27, there isn’t too much improvement to come. He needs to, at the very minimum, perform how he did last year.

Guys like Paddy Dow (pick No.4) and David Cunningham (pick 23) are players the Blues have invested a lot in, and they need them to fire to elevate the squad to the next level.

Attack

The Blues forward line will be led by their twin towers and Coleman Medallists in Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow. These two superstars are about to both hit their peaks together and it spells trouble for opposition teams.

They combined for 109 goals last year and it is hard to see that changing this season. If anything, I expect them to improve again as they didn’t have a whole lot of time playing together before last year due to their respective injuries.

Tom De Koning is going to be a very intriguing watch in 2023. He could be an absolute superstar this young man and at 23, he needs to start developing into a consistently good player. If he becomes that star forward-ruck, it’ll go a long way to the Blues playing finals for the first time in 10 years.

The small forward position is still the glaring issue for the Blues. My thoughts on Jack Silvagni are well-documented and even if he is a best-22 player, it won’t be as a small forward as he is simply too tall.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Corey Durdin, Jesse Motlop, Matt Owies, and Zac Fisher all rolled through that area last season and the best return was from Fisher who kicked 18 goals. Considering he is more of a winger/half forward flank it leaves the cupboard bare. Owies kicked 14 goals from 17 games, Motlop 12 from 12 games, and Durdin 15 goals from 21 games.

That simply isn’t good enough and it wasn’t really addressed in the off-season. Motlop is the hope as you would expect some improvement and that would bring him towards 25 goals when playing most games, but he needs help and at the moment, it doesn’t look like there will be any.

Prediction

The Navy Blues will be playing finals for the first time in a decade in 2023 and the heartbreak of last year might have been a blessing in disguise.

You can expect improvement from the likes of Cerra, Williams, De Koning, Motlop and Fisher, which should help bring them September action assuming they get a clean bill of health, and their stars maintain form. 2023 is the year that the Blues are finally back!

Ladder position: Sixth.