There have been almost 70 coaches sacked since the start of the NRL era, which averages out to around three each year.
Heading into 2023, that trend looks likely to continue with several coaches already under heavy pressure to keep their jobs.
There is no such thing as 100 per cent job security when you’re an NRL coach but the likes of Melbourne’s Craig Bellamy, Trent Robinson at the Roosters and Penrith’s dual premiership-winning mentor Ivan Cleary are as close as you can get.
There are a few coaches like Gold Coast’s Justin Holbrook, Canberra’s Ricky Stuart and Parramatta’s Brad Arthur who wouldn’t want a poor season or they could be under scrutiny, but here are the three coaches who have to perform of they will perish.
Anthony Griffin – St George Illawarra Dragons
Anthony Griffin enters the season with eight weeks to save his job. Or is it six weeks? Either way, the prospect of an NRL coach entering the season already on the clock is a league reporter’s fever dream.
According to the usual wild speculation and rumour-mongering on Twitter, Griffin is lucky to still have a job. Had it not been for an ill-advised contract extension handed out prior to the 2022 season, his moribund tenure as leader of the Red V might already be over.
Griffin’s original appointment in September of 2020 was about as warmly received by St George Illawarra fans as a building site running out of Dare Iced Coffee. The former Broncos and Panthers mentor arrived in Wollongong with a serviceable 55 per cent winning percentage across 173 first grade games and a reputation for doing things the old school way.
Griffin inherited an aging roster weighed down by underperforming and unavailable stars, and a culture poisoned by knucklehead senior players. His task was to administer a cultural antidote, excise the cancerous growths from the locker-room and cultivate the rich crop of junior talent coming through the lower grades.
Anthony Griffin. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
In 2021, he achieved none of those goals. Instead of blooding young players, Griffin signed a busted Andrew McCullough and a threadbare Josh McGuire. Instead of fixing the culture, we had Weekend at Vaughany’s. The Dragons lost their final eight games of the season and finished 11th.
Last season wasn’t much better. Outside of a career year from halfback Ben Hunt, St George Illawarra were mediocre at best. They won as many games as they lost (12) and missed qualification for the finals by four competition points. Most concerning was their defence, which conceded 23.7 points per game (PPG) off the back of a whopping 938 missed tackles— the highest in the NRL.
Heading into 2023, the vibes around this team couldn’t be worse. Whispers of player unrest continue to circulate, which certainly wasn’t helped by the no-show at the end of season presentation night nor by continued social media sniping by former players.
To make matters worse, first-choice fullback Cody Ramsey will sit out the season as he battles a serious illness and five-eighth Talatau Amone has been stood down indefinitely due to his legal issues.
Ironically, only youth can save Griffin now. He must turn to the disgruntled duo of Tyrell Sloan and Jayden Sullivan, each of whom have previously requested a release from the club, to help guide his stagnant attack.
Will it be enough to push the Dragons into the top eight? It’s very unlikely. And with the glowing reports on Red V alumni Ben Hornby and Dean Young, this situation will come to a head before too long. Come July, Griffin will be explaining to the NRL 360 crew why he deserves another chance.
Adam O’Brien – Newcastle Knights
Adam O’Brien lobbed into Newcastle prior to the 2020 season as the next big thing. The original Cameron Ciraldo. Spawned from the Craig Bellamy coaching tree and having spent time with Trent Robinson and Brad Arthur, he had the pedigree of a prize-winning Labradoodle.
Upon arriving in the Hunter, O’Brien traded in his Ben Sherman for Hark Yakka, popped his new blue collar and got busy. His early press conferences hit all the right notes – improving the culture, instilling a work ethic, embracing his players. Not even George Lucas could sell new hope this well.
Now three years into his coaching career, it’s difficult to evaluate O’Brien’s tenure at Newcastle. Looking strictly at results, his could be viewed as a successful appointment. He’s led the Knights to the finals in two of his three seasons in charge, breaking a six-year post-season drought.b
Yet O’Brien’s Newcastle sides have never been viewed as legitimate contenders. Despite being stacked with blue-chippers like Mitchell Pearce, Kalyn Ponga, David Klemmer and Bradman Best, the Knights have largely under-achieved since he arrived.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
In fact, it could be argued that they are getting worse each season. The Knights finished seventh in 2020 and qualified for the finals with a +47 point differential. The following season they again finished seventh, but this time with a -147 point differential. They were predictably waxed in Week 1 of the finals both years.
In 2022, the lipstick had well and truly washed off this pig. Newcastle fielded the competition’s second-worst attack (15.5 PPG), third-worst defence (27.6 PPG) and finished with a point differential of -290. Had it not been for the inept play of the Tigers and the mental exhaustion of the Warriors, the Knights would have collected their fourth wooden spoon in eight seasons.
Luck certainly played a significant part in this steady decline. Two games into O’Brien’s head coaching career, the competition was shut down due to COVID-19. Navigating a team through that mess would have been taxing enough, but Newcastle also lost their top three hooking options to season-ending injuries.
Pearce and Ponga missed significant portions of 2021 due to injury, with the former prematurely departing the club at the end of the year. The 2022 season started with a bang, which unfortunately turned out to be the rupturing of Jayden Brailey’s Achilles tendon. Add to this Ponga’s multiple missed games and injury had cruelled another season of Newcastle football.
The 2023 season represents O’Brien’s last roll of the dice, and his job will hinge on the success of Ponga’s move into the halves. Many have questioned the logic of shifting a player with a recent history of multiple concussions into the front line of defence. It’s a fair question.
Newcastle fans hold their breath every time Ponga attempts a low tackle or is slow to his feet. O’Brien will be right there with them.
Kevin Walters – Brisbane Broncos
Kevin Walters joined the Brisbane Broncos at their lowest ebb. Anthony Seibold had been fired less than two years into a five-year contract, Chairman Karl Morris was conducting defensive media conferences with the regularity of the Palaszczuk government, and the club had collected their first wooden spoon.
Buoyed by a groundswell of “old boy” support, Walters was installed as coach prior to the 2021 season and promised to bring back Bronco DNA. While I’m not sure about Kevy’s knowledge of nucleotides, this roughly translated to getting the club back to where it was when he was a player.
With an inexperienced roster devoid of talent along the spine, Walters’ first season in charge was predictably poor. More concerning than Brisbane’s 14th-placed finish, however, was the negative headlines being generated off the field. From players punching on in pubs to a litany of arrests and some shocking Jake Turpin haircuts, this was a club mired deep in dysfunction.
The signing of Adam Reynolds proved to be a turning point. The former Bunny brought his wealth of experience and elite kicking game to Red Hill, and the impact was instantaneous.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Brisbane won 13 games, including seven straight during mid-season. They fell off towards the end of the year, but that can be excused from such a young side.
Unfortunately for Walters, the improvement of his football team was overshadowed by further off-field issues. Payne Haas’ contract saga became a constant source of speculation, culminating in the prop being booed at Suncorp Stadium. Walters himself was struggling to relinquish responsibilities to football and performance director Ben Ikin, with the whole saga being narrated on Triple M by Gorden Tallis.
Worse still was the shade being thrown at Walters on various podcasts, by no less than his own players. Tyson Gamble admitted that it was Reynolds, not Walters, who ran the show at the Broncos, while Selwyn Cobbo shared that Kevy was a great bloke, but not much of a coach. Only in rugby league.
Walters enters this season with a roster capable of playing finals football. With the arrival of Reece Walsh at fullback, the emergence of Cobbo, Herbie Farnworth and Ezra Mam across the backline, and a forward pack littered with representative players, there are no more excuses.
After the experience with Seibold, the Broncos will have more escape clauses in Walters’ contract than a Jennifer Lopez pre-nup. Unless Walters can take this club back to the finals, he’ll be back in the commentary box next season.
The Wollongong Ocean
Roar Rookie
I think all coaches can coach, but everything needs to fall in place for success. Superstar signings, positive culture etc. Hard gig, you are either hated or loved…. Very little in between.
Craig
Guest
See the Roosters have been demanding that Dom Young be released immediately, from Newcastle. Obviously they wish to put Suaalii in the centres for 2023 & without him there see centre as a weakness again. However , also see the wing as a problem then without Young. So want him at the club now. Newcastle went back with, ‘ sure give us a decent forward such as Nat Butcher & a transfer fee & we’ll do a deal ‘. Which the Roosters rejected. Why would any club release one of their best players this close to the start of the season, just because the Roosters want to try & toss their weight around? Young still has a year of his contract to go. You get nothing for nothing Roosters.
Dionysus
Guest
The jury is still out on Kevvie for me. Considering what he inherited, I think this season should be the true measure of Kevvie
Paul
Guest
I’m not a Newcastle supporter as such. Have gone to some Newcastle games with my nephew. Who’s a big Newcastle supporter. So he tells me every bit of news out of the club & I sometimes have a look myself. One of the problems as can be seen , after last season. Is that they let some first grade forwards leave . Including some locals who were improving . Then there were 4 of those at Jersey Flegg level , that they let go. All promising players. They included Bradbury a prop, who they’d elevated to the top 30 squad, to take over from one of the others they’d let go. Bradbury is a junior rep player & 1 of the top rated props for his age. For him, they get an alright veteran inexperienced fullback. The club keeps recruiting ordinary players, to replace ordinary players. Such as Clune & Milford ( for last year ). While at the same time letting the best of those they develop get away. They also had no junior development officer last season, after the one they had left . After disagreements with the club. So the reserve grade coach , was doing that job too. Bennett left the juniors system & juniors development at the club in a mess when he left. As he didn’t care about any of it . Only about buying players for first grade to keep his reputation up. Which he didn’t succeed in doing at Newcastle. His record when he left , was the worst for 20 plus years. While spending an enormous amount of money. Things with the last couple of coaches & at a board level haven’t improved much at all. It’s only this last less than a year , that any grade has done much in recent times. Including the success in the women’s team winning a GF & the Jersey Flegg making the GF. Ponga is overpaid & overrated at a club level . Plus mostly injured. He’s a real chance of being knocked out of the game altogether with another head knock or 2. According to most, O’Brien only cares about his immediate future. That’s what all the recent poor buys have been about & the running around trying to find a fullback, at any cost. Then the do anything to make Ponga happy, which probably also comes from the board. So everything’s not great within the club. As already stated above , at least some success last season, may be a change in fortunes? I hope so for them. ( Going by the trials form , it’s not a fantastic year to come ) . They really need to just get all the ducks in a row. Forget about the ordinary buys & concentrate more on their own juniors development & retainment . Which of course again means , don’t let the best of them get away. I think there’s a lot there for St.George too!
JennyFromPenny
Guest
Short of winning a Premiership sums up Parramatta to a tee.
GB
Roar Rookie
Griffin and O'Brien are definitely dead men walking. I think O'Brien will be the first coach to be axed though, as the Knights have higher expectations than the Dragons, who have let things Drag-on at Kogarah for far too long.
steveng
Roar Rookie
Kevie has a few 'high paid bludgers" in that Bronx squad and they are not pulling their weight but they are real good at making excuses.
Dionysus
Guest
I have no criticism of Brad Arthur and find it surprising that he is tottering on the brink of a sacking given Parra's results in recent years. Sure he hasn't won a premiership but he has certainly been knocking on the door and there is a lot to be said for that. However, I think your yardstick of performance could have been chosen better particularly the injury issues that plagued Melbourne and even the Roosters weren't devoid of issues. At the end of the day, the ladder, wins/losses and PD are the only meaningful measures and as I said earlier, maybe not Top Drawer but certainly far from the relegation zone. I am not a Parra supporter but if I was and the club did give Brad the boot, then the club had better have some truly exceptional candidate waiting in the wings.
Gus O
Guest
Hi Paul, I’m a St G supporter, so absolutely not throwing stones. You clearly know more about Newcastle, so I’d appreciate your comments. I assume the switch to 5/8 is Ponga’s preference? It also looks like the entire recruitment strategy is focused on supporting/enabling Ponga’s switch. To me it also looks like the coach publicly walks around on eggshells, going out of his way to keep Ponga happy and get the most out of him, and that the entire club has gone all-in on the Ponga era. Fair enough so long as there is honesty behind closed doors. No argument from me against developing and retaining local juniors as the ongoing life blood of a club… but if the immediate plan is committing to Ponga at 5/8 (like it or not), it looks to me that Newcastle has recruited very well in halves and fullback, and has better depth if Ponga is injured. That being said, I’m unfamiliar with Max Bradbury and don’t know the detail of the deal with Cronulla to recruit Miller. To me Newcastle now look more competitive (on paper) than 2022, and local juniors are more likely to want to play for a competitive club. What am i missing?
Gus O
Guest
“Jake Turpin haircuts”. Thank you Tom :)
Boingo
Guest
Just on injuries - it's tempting to write these off as 'bad luck' but there's also a degree of risk management involved. Good conditioning staff know how to reduce the risk of player injury. Players themselves have a responsibility to manage their injuries properly. Look at a player like Cooper cronk and how he dealt with injuries and his health in general. Or Brad thorns. Compare that to guys like Ponga or Josh dugan who go out on the piss or use their injury down time to stuff around and not rehab properly. No sympathy here for those players or the clubs that tolerate it.
Paul
Guest
Totally agree with you. The correct call is to at least say to Ponga, at contract time. You never get through a season without significant time out through injury. Not saying that’s your fault. We just can’t pay a million, for a part time player. We will offer you $650,000 a year which is still a good contract. Could only see a couple of clubs like the Dolphins wanting to pay more . If he wants to go, big deal. As you say, invest in the future of the club . Stop letting the best of the locals get away. It’s a good area in general & has a lot going for it , in a nice coastal area. There must be a heap of juniors from the Central Coast to the North Coast who’d jump at the chance to play for the club. Including those who are currently in the Roosters system from the coast. Who will never play first grade there, as they buy in their team.
Saints
Guest
Hook only hires yes men as assistant coaches. He didn’t want to work with actual decent assistant coaches at Penrith & ignored them. So not sure how it could possibly be anyone else’s fault for anything that’s wrong at St.George , do with coaching now . Other than Hook’s! I’d be delighted to see St.George play fantastic football in 2023 & make the 8 looking like a great team. Then I could say , ‘Sorry Hook, you’re better than I thought as a coach’! Not holding my breath though.
Tom Rock
Expert
Hi Paul. I agree with everything you said. The recruitment, retention and development at Newcastle has been on the nose for years. They are paying the wrong players, and as a result the team sucks on the field. When they do finally luck into a good player like Dom Young, he doesn't want to saddle his future to the Knights. Hard to blame him. It's a vicious cycle... I would have preferred for Newcastle to let Ponga walk. Spend the money in other areas and focus on the next generation. The Knights are multiple seasons away from being competitive, so why waste that much cash on a bloke who gives a poor account of himself both on and off the field.
Noel
Roar Rookie
Yeah, I agree. The situation reminds me very much of the Meninga/Hagan relationship at Origin. Meninga was the front man, but Hagan was running the team. Bennett will handle the press and the off field intangibles, but I very much think this is a Woolf team. If he's taking over, they want the game plan, defensive systems and recruitment strategies to remain consistent. I think it could work very well.
Randy
Roar Rookie
but Limp Bizkit were not good lol and RHCP are overrated at best - they have some good songs.
Paul
Guest
Tom, as a Newcastle supporter. Your biggest worry must be the shedding of local talented players that happens regularly. They can’t afford to lose them . Lose a lot of props for example, then let a lot of promising forwards go from the Jersey Flegg level as well. Letting Max Bradbury go to Cronulla , wasn’t a good idea & short sighted at best. Especially when you’re getting a veteran inexperienced fullback in return. I heard that they want to return to the developing players from within policy. Which is the way to go for Newcastle. Especially as they , like the teams from Sydney’s West have a hell of a problem gaining any top players by buying them. As the Roosters etc, always somehow have more money to spend? Then Newcastle helps develop a young winger for example, then has them bought away as well. Only developing their own players & getting the ‘let’s stick together as a group’ way of thinking amongst locals can improve Newcastle’s fortunes long term.( Newcastle had success at Jersey Flegg level last season & there’s a start ) Of course even when clubs go that way & gain some success, they even have their locally developed players bought away from them. Just ask Penrith. At least that may come , ‘after a bit of success’.
Chris
Guest
The Broncos don’t have the biggest membership, that’s Melbourne. They are though the biggest league club . I don’t see all these similar stories about the Storm ? Maybe it’s because they are a bit hidden away down in AFL heartland? Although given that they are , no doubt AFL loving supporters & media would be all too willing to shine a light on any small misdemeanours committed by anyone to do with them. There’s something not quite right around the Broncos, that has the players playing up as they have done so often. As for the teams you’ve noted there, for not being well supported. I see weekly stories about the Knights on here. They also get very healthy crowd numbers at games , especially when they perform a bit better. Better crowd numbers than many other clubs.
matth
Roar Guru
Bennett will be safe this year, except that at his age it mind end pretty quickly if the energy isn’t there anymore. More likely in that scenario Woolf would run the team with Bennett as figurehead and giver of grandfatherly advice
matth
Roar Guru
At any other club he’d be as safe as houses