Super Rugby Pacific tipping Week 2: Super Rounds and second-week syndromes

He started all right on debut last week, the new guy.

Christy ran four from four with Digger going into the fifth game of the weekend in Townsville and would’ve been feeling pretty good about himself only to learn firsthand how unforgiving Super Rugby tipping has always been!

This week it’s crunch time: back it up or pack it up. You’re only as good as your next round et cetera, et cetera.

And making it that little bit trickier this week is the removal of home-ground advantage for all but one team and adding the travel factor in for all 12 teams as everyone converges on Melbourne for the second annual Super Rugby Pacific Super Round in Melbourne starting Friday evening – or “second inaugural” as Nick McArdle butchered last week, before quickly correcting himself.

How’s it going to work for everyone?

Will the three other Australian east coast teams have some degree of advantage with relative closeness and not having to worry about customs and passports? Are the Blues and Moana Pasifika the best-placed NZ teams, being able to fly one single leg? Are the Highlanders more disadvantaged than even the Drua or Force given the number and length of legs they’ll need to get to Melbourne?

So as much as the only one- and two-wrong tippers need to back up their strong starts, so too do the six teams who claimed Ws last weekend.

And then we consider the bounce-back factors as well. Who has the most upside after Round 1?

Who has the most to lose in Melbourne this weekend? And are we all still talking about the same thing now?

Last week: Digger 5, Geoff 4, Christy 4, Harry 3, Brett 2. The Crowd 4.

Digger

Crusaders, Hurricanes, Chiefs, Waratahs, Blues, Force

It’s early days of course, and while the situation can change rapidly, I feel it is best to take advantage of the current standings and declare:

Guru > Editor > Experts.

Now for the more important business of this weekend’s matches, the first three of which all look straightforward.

Both the Crusaders and Highlanders will be disappointed with their opening efforts at home and be looking to bounce back hard, but the Crusaders are likely to bounce higher. The Hurricanes have a lot of points in them, and I do not see how the Rebels will stop them. I expect the Chiefs pack will be too much for Moana Pasifika to contend with.

The next three matches are a little trickier to settle upon. I give the Drua a real shot against the Waratahs in what promises to be an exciting match-up, but I suspect the stronger Waratahs set piece will see them home.

If we get a repeat of the same quality as the two games last season between the Brumbies and the Blues, we are in for a real treat. I am unconvinced the Brumbies are playing with enough cohesion at this early stage of the season to hold back a Blues side stacked with attacking threats, so I will nominate the primary colour to get it done.

The Reds are a bit of an enigma to me. Despite being a side that has looked like one of the better Australian squads in the past few seasons playing their interstate rivals, they fall completely flat against the sides across the ditch. And after last weekend playing in difficult conditions in the far north, I suspect they may be a bit better for it this week. But the Force did look more organised generally in their game, particularly with possession.

It’s a difficult match to pick with any degree of certainty. I will follow the form guide offered from the last round and tip the Force.

Sure thing: A simple sure thing from me this week, and that is we will see a continuation of the excellent officiating we saw during Round 1, and a few more set plays from quick taps will be great to watch.

Surely someone will bring back the wall?

(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

Geoff

Crusaders, Hurricanes, Chiefs, Waratahs, Blues, Force

How fantastic to have all of the sides in the one place this weekend, including the Force and Moana Pasifika, who missed last year’s Super Round due to COVID. Concerns remain around promotion and event management, but none of that should get in the way of another great round of rugby.

The Crusaders and Highlanders both got their backsides handed to them on a plate last week. It’s the Landers who will need another plate. The Rebels are a better side than what their second-half Perth fade-out suggests, but they’ll have their work cut out reining in the Hurricanes.

The Chiefs look the business in 2023 and will have too much class for Moana Pasifika. The Drua have more show up against the Waratahs and will have the crowd right behind them, particularly if they can get some momentum up. The Waratahs should do the little things better, though, and get the win.

Sunday brings two compelling contests. The Brumbies started well in Sydney but will find the impressive Blues a step too high at this stage, but it’s the final match that shapes as the most intriguing. Already, this feels like a ‘line in the sand’ match for the Reds; a quick reset or else confirmation that they’re in for a long, ugly season.

I liked what the Force delivered in their comeback win against the Rebels, and I think they can do it again.

Sure thing: Eddie Jones has been tireless in his efforts to engage the rugby community since returning to the Wallabies coaching role, but tomorrow all of that fun comes to an end when he gets to sit next to me at a rugby lunch and face a barrage of questions like, “But surely you scroll through the comments on The Roar and take advantage of all the suggestions?”.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Christy

Crusaders, Hurricanes, Chiefs, Waratahs, Blues, Reds

The Crusaders are done, are they? Not a chance. The Highlanders are in for more pain with Sam Whitelock’s return to steady the ship and help lead the Crusaders to a big win after their poor second half against the Chiefs.

The Rebels won’t get run over the top in the second half like the Reds did by the Hurricanes, but they still won’t have enough class to register their first win of the season.

Darren Coleman’s Waratahs face an anxious opening 20 minutes, but they should have too much class despite Angus Bell’s injury. The Chiefs, meanwhile, will hammer Moana Pasifika. Sorry.

The Reds will benefit from some high quality returning to their side, while the semi-final rematch between the Blues and Brumbies promises to be a cracker. It’s the game of the weekend by a country mile. In fact Sunday promises to be the day of the round.

Sure thing: They say first impressions count. Well, for Eddie Jones, the new Wallabies coach is set to get his first impression of Suliasi Vunivalu in an official match. In Narrabri Jones was hugely impressed by Vunivalu’s physique. Now Australian rugby fans will get the chance to see whether the former Melbourne Storm flyer has what it takes on his old stomping ground. The clock is ticking on his time in Australian rugby.

(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

Harry

Crusaders, Hurricanes, Chiefs, Waratahs, Blues, Reds

The best way to ride the Crusader horse to the promised land is to get on it and never get off. The odiferous men from the South stunk up the joint last week and ended up meekly surrendering to the Chiefs, but this week they will be brutally efficient in clearing the Highlanders from the pitch.

The Hurricanes look like they have two of the best hookers in New Zealand, and Asafo Aumua may be the best Cane No. 2. I will wager Digger a bowl of jambalaya the Canes play even more plentifully than he bets.

The Chiefs will take some stopping. Moana Pasifika (and the Drua) showed they can maul and set a piece, but they’re not ready for this.

The Waratahs will be upset that this round of rugby, with its sudden influx of fans and teams, will suddenly render Melbourne the most populous city in Australia, but will take it out on the high-flying Fijians.

The Blues look like they could qualify for the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals ahead of Wales and England. Cricket score. Well, a Laidlaw score. For Brett’s team.

The theme of this round is renew, reset, revamp, revenge, redo and red arses. The Reds’ rumps are redder than maroon. They will bounce back.

Sure thing: Nobody has gone wire to wire in this tipping panel – at the top. Wooden spoons are, however, won early.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Brett

Crusaders, Hurricanes, Chiefs, Waratahs, Blues, Reds

You’ve gotta feel sorry for some teams this Super Round weekend.

Imagine being the Highlanders, coming into the second match of the year after a pantsing at home, knowing they’ve got to lift for the South Island derby and then having to remind themselves the Crusaders are coming off a similar but slightly smaller opening-round pantsing. Nowhere to hide for the Clan.

And then imagine being the Rebels going all the way to Perth to close out the first weekend of the season and getting off to a really promising start only to suffer a second-half fade-out. And then imagine playing on the first night of the weekend where literally everyone comes to your patch for the weekend and then copping the Hurricanes coming off a thumping of one of the supposedly fancied Australian sides. Rough.

Saturday looks worryingly straightforward. Chiefs will have too much firepower for Moana Pasifika, and the Drua will have plenty of firepower but not quite enough class for the wounded Waratahs. But good luck, Max Jorgensen; Andy Muirhead talking to the touchie will be the least of your problems this weekend.

Sunday’s harder. Way harder. I really like the Force, even with the rumours of returning Reds. The westerners’ pack looks better, and their backline will match up really well with Queensland’s too. But I can’t shake the feeling that the Reds’ bounce-back factor will be real.

And so that leaves me the Blues-Brumbies. I absolutely think the Brumbies can win this game and was quite happy to tip them, but I do have more confidence about getting a Blues tip wrong because of their stupid sucky history and all that. So, bugger it; Blues.

Sure thing: Go ahead Blues, make my day.

Get your tips in now. The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEDT.

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