Overlook the All Blacks at your peril: they are masters of reinvention and the smart money has never left them for RWC

Peek at a betting site if your browser lets you, and you may be surprised to see the All Blacks as co-favourites to lift the Webb Ellis Cup later this year. France and New Zealand are 4-1 or thereabouts. Ireland and South Africa fit in between 5-1 and 8-1. How can this be?

Did Ireland not beat the All Blacks in a series on New Zealand soil, the “hardest thing to do in rugby” as Andy Farrell put it, fair and square, two to one, just last year? It was probably the greatest Irish team sport achievement in history, eclipsing all Grand Slams, football feats, field hockey exploits, or Olympic glory.

They’ve hardly taken a backward step since, beating France and South Africa too, and remaining top ranked.

Perhaps it is less a statement against Irish hopes and more of a deep faith in Kiwi learning acuity. Or maybe it is an honest look at relative depth (reserve locks aside, which both teams seem to lack). Or just a “I’ll believe Ireland can get past the quarters when I see it.” Or all of the above.

Irish rugby has never scaled heights higher than a series win in New Zealand. They seem poised for another Grand Slam. But the 2007, 2015 and 2019 World Cups caused bookkeepers to doubt Ireland’s staying power in a seven-match tourney.

Watching this precise and relentless Irish squad, one cannot help but get the sense the coaches are the most valuable players, and that includes the coach with number ten on his back.

Gruff Northerner Farrell is supported by fanatically detailed assistants Mike Catt, he of obsessive study habits, flanker of yore Simon Easterby and even gruffer Paul O’Connell. They are elevating players like Mack Hansen, Caelan Doris, Jack Conan, Hugo Keenan, Stu McCloskey, and James Lowe substantially higher than their natural sets of talents suggest. Keenan is playing better than Freddie Steward with less genetic giftedness. Doris won’t win a tale of the tape with the French loosies but he, like seemingly every Irish player at the moment, knows precisely where the ball is.

And yet it still seems Irish rugby is a bit of a satire. The natural expression of the Irish seems irony.

Robbie Henshaw on the break looks wry. Johnny Sexton’s joy looks sour. Tadgh Furlong appears to have eaten minutes before he takes the pitch. Peter O’Mahony is a true rugby poet; fertile and colloquial. Tadgh Beirne steals the ball as if he is making a mockery of the ruck; dignified calm.

If Jonathan Swift included a rugby match in Gulliver, he would have surely had the Laputans using the current Farrell-Catt-POC system to overcome the giants. Swift’s most enduring maxim was that the greatest benefactor of mankind is he who can make two blades of grass grow where one grew before. This is what this Irish coaching staff, ably supported by thinkers like Leo Cullum and until recently, Stuart Lancaster, is doing in Dublin: making the isle even more emerald, but with tongues wedged snugly into cheeks.

So, yes, back in July 2022, Ireland won a three-Test series against New Zealand, rising from the Auckland ashes of the first Test (19-42), winning in the end rather comfortably in Dunedin (23-12) and Wellington (32-22). A deep belief held them together after the first two tour games.

But also a way of playing which felt right. Short passes. Clean cleaning. Third channel attack on the diagonal. Precision kicks through. Speed of thought and execution on new ball; not just set starter plays.

About a 25% likelihood exists of an Ireland-New Zealand quarterfinal. Despite better front row play, a renewed zeal for fitness, and a clearer idea on midfield play, would the All Blacks be underdogs?

Maybe not.

The most recent seismic rugby shift for the All Blacks was in 2009.

That year, the Springboks beat the All Blacks three times. Within a year, New Zealand had changed foundations and launched their goldest golden phase of the professional era.

In claiming the Tri-Nations title, the No. 1 Lions-beating Boks became the first and only side to sweep the All Blacks in a series. How did they do it? A monster pack with specimens, slow poison, power, 60 metre range from the tee or drop, and then quick strikes by an efficient backline armed with pin-point bombs to chase.

(Photo By Brendan Moran/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

But only the next year, the All Blacks had shored up their back three, introduced new blood, improved shepherding patterns, and fixed their scrum. They won the 2010 Tri-Nations with ease, 6 from 6, and went into the magical sweep of 2011 to 2017 seasons when all comers were swept.

New Zealand rugby has shown itself remarkably able to reinvent itself in a hurry to get back on top.

If Ireland used their older players (O’Mahony, Bundee Aki, Iain Henderson, Keith Earls, Sexton, Conor Murray) intelligently to complement younger lads like James Ryan, Keenan, Doris, Dan Sheehan, and Hansen, it seemed as New Zealand under Ian Foster, Brad Mooar, and John Plumtree, in the two later Tests, were extracting the very worst mixture of the over-30 crowd (Codie Taylor, Sam Cane, Sam Whitelock, and assorted weary props) which threw a wet blanket on young stars.

Also, it looked very much like the All Blacks felt the series was over after having scored four tries in 17 first-half minutes at Eden Park, and captain Sexton knocked out.

But in a gripping Dunedin rematch, Ireland finished the stronger and won a chaotic match 23-12.

Angus Ta’avao’s red card was a big moment, but overall, the All Blacks were profoundly reckless.

Ireland had found their rhythm in the red zone; whilst the All Black coaches bizarrely cost themselves their best player (Ardie Savea) in a misunderstanding of the rules.

Doris was Hercules, Sexton was recovered, and Dunedin was silenced.

There was no backlash in the rubber Test. Ireland jumped all over the hosts in a 22-3 first half. The All Blacks looked dishevelled and ragged on both sides of the ball; poise deserted them, and it was old O’Mahony sobbing tears of joy at the death.

The All Black front row in that match was populated by Bower, Taylor, Laulala, Coles, Tu’inukuafe, and Tu’ungafasi. It will not, again. Just as 2010 brought new back threes along.

What have the All Blacks already addressed? What might they still fix or improve?

Why would a quarterfinal between Ireland, who have won the majority of the teams’ last eight Tests, be different than the recent contests, in which the Irish looked the fitter, smarter, and more fluid?

In 2016, at Chicago, Ireland upset the rugby world with a 40-29 win. New Zealand bullied the Irish in their home stadium a fortnight later (21-9). Ireland won in Dublin (16-9) in 2018 and were again dominated in the revenge Test in Tokyo (46-14). Ireland took the 2021 match 29-20 in Dublin. Then, the series in New Zealand. Nothing suggests either team can sweep the other for three games.

Also, the All Blacks have changed their coaching staff. Famously immediate in his impact at Ellis Park, Jason Ryan is getting hard nut style combat rugby from his pack. As shown by the Boks and Wallabies in Dublin in 2022, the best way to negate Ireland’s attack is take away most areas of the pitch, get over the ball even if pilfers are not there, tie up and tire the Irish tight forwards, get into the lanes of passing, and come to the collision zone with full intent.

That is the style Ryan brings, along with maul excellence.

Take the last Bledisloe match: the All Blacks scored four maul drive tries. Samison Taukei’aho is now an integral part of the pack (he was not, for the Irish series). The All Blacks turned the Wallabies over almost 20 times, allowing the likes of Will Jordan to run free. Line breaks were created from new ball; not laboured starter plays. The All Blacks only gave up 8 penalties even as their style of tackling was far more domineering than at the start of 2022. Ryan is recreating a bulldozer.

On attack, the combination of Ian Foster and Joe Schmidt conspired to create far more healthy chances in the red zone and just outside the 22, courtesy of far superior starter plays (a Schmidt specialty) than Brad Mooar had devised.

In selection, the rise of 24-year old Ethan de Groot, 25-year old Taukei’aho, 26-year old Tyrel Lomax as a dynamic front row, with Fletcher Newell and a complete additional front row of 30-year old stalwarts, poses far more questions of Ireland than in early 2022.

Bench play was a problem for the All Blacks all of 2022; even in the last match versus England.

The old firm of Whitelock and Retallick does need great backup to supplement Scott Barrett (who is, as our Highlander asserts, a lock), but this is looking better with the likes of athletic Tupou Vaa’i and others. Fortunately for the All Blacks, depth at lock is also an issue for Ireland.

At loose forward, there appears to be a squadron of willing, fast, physical athletes on the ready, including Shannon Frizell and Dalton Papali’i, all led by one-of-a-kind Ardie Savea, but Ireland may continue to hold the edge in this realm for 2023.

The backline conundrum faced by the All Blacks also appears to be solved: Beauden Barrett is not the starting flyhalf (as he was in the pivotal second Test in Dunedin). For backup, the best bet is likely Stephen Perofeta, but the coaches wasted time on the Barrett vs Mo’unga debate in the first half of 2022, whilst the Blues man was in supreme form and wasted.

The midfield is changed. Quinn Tupaea is not going to be the No.12 at the World Cup; nor is David Havili first choice.

The All Black backs present as a large unit now: Jordie Barrett at 12, Rieko Ioane at 13, powerful wings, and a rejuvenated Aaron Smith whipping the ball as far has he ever has. There is still tightening to do on transition defence, but sub-20 point All Black productions may be a thing of the past.

The manner in which the game is being refereed and administered (faster) should suit the All Blacks against any team except Ireland.

The backdrop of all of this is that New Zealand have to prepare for two very different quarterfinal matchups: Ireland and South Africa.

A century of DNA and lore support the All Blacks’ knowledge of how to beat the Boks. The two 2022 Tests present a microcosm of how not to do it (get strangled and drown) and how to do it (take a red hot go from broken ball and steal lineouts). Wind up with the Boks in a quarterfinal and you would surely bet on the All Blacks.

So, it is more likely the Irish Way which must be studied. How do the All Blacks best interrupt and stall the fractal attack? Where can Sexton be put into a vice and sat down? What can be done about the POC super lineout? What Henshaw lines can be prevented or put into alleys?

Outscore with rapidity or slow them down?

Surely the entirety of New Zealand rugby is united on understanding how the Irish won, why they won, what can be undone or redone, and if there was any complacency, the first ever home loss to Argentina must have shaken other timbers in the foundation.

History has never shown us a New Zealand rugby firmament unable to adapt and respond.

The smart money has never left the All Blacks for the Cup this year. They will enter either quarterfinal as favoured, because their long history of responding intelligently and passionately to defeats is not extinct.