Ready or not, the Queensland Reds’ moment of truth is on Ballymore’s doorstep.
Judgement Day won’t be delivered by the end of the working week but will likely be sealed in the minutes before Close of Business hours on Friday afternoon.
Bizarrely, some might not even see it.
Friday’s 2:05pm AEST kick-off in Apia is a historic moment for rugby in the Pacific and, indeed, Southern Hemisphere rugby, but the early afternoon start time will mean many watching back in Australia either won’t know the match is on or won’t be able to tune in.
Nonetheless, the result holds huge ramifications.
The Reds always knew a decision would have to be made this season regarding Brad Thorn’s future, they just hoped it would be on his terms. It still promises to be, albeit just not the way both parties hoped.
After the celebrations of early 2021 where 42,000 fans watched the Reds beat the Brumbies in an epic at Suncorp Stadium to take out the Super Rugby AU competition, Queensland’s fall has been stark and uncomfortable to watch as the losses have mounted and players have either left or others failed to develop as expected.
The Reds have won just once against New Zealand opposition in the past two-and-a-half years.
That’s the only result that matters. Not the Reds’ dismantling of a dishevelled Force outfit in Melbourne.
Indeed, it’s what Thorn spoke about in 2021 when he spoke about the importance – and necessity – of playing New Zealand opposition rather than sticking to an Australian-only competition.
On his own metric, the Reds have been found wanting.
Injuries have played a part, but they are excuses and would merely camouflage the franchise’s shortcomings.
Importantly, the Reds, The Roar understands, aren’t trying to use them as a reason for their fall from grace.
But like it or not, the Reds head to Samoa to take on Moana Pasifika with Thorn’s future firmly on the line.
Even before their heavy loss to the Brumbies, where they had a half-century put on them by the fiercest rivals in recent years, it’s believed QRU board members thought Thorn could fall on his sword were they to lose.
He didn’t, but the result was yet another humiliation.
Thorn, whose frustration was obvious at half-time and full-time, said he’s not a quitter in the moments after the result.
Should the Reds lose in Apia to the winless Moana Pasifika, he might not have a choice.
Winless in their past three matches, a fourth consecutive defeat could just be the straw that breaks Thorn’s strong back.
The Reds have had urgent meetings to start the week and are hopeful of simplifying their game plan to give them the best chance of a positive result on Friday.
The playing group is said to still respect Thorn but is questioning his game plan. That’s not solely the head coach’s responsibility, but the buck stops with Thorn.
The QRU will save their mid-season review for next week, which just so happens to be a bye-round.
The Reds don’t want to preconceive Friday’s result nor Thorn’s future, but they always thought 2023 would be his last year as head coach.
Thorn himself admitted that he wasn’t sure what his future held beyond 2023 earlier in the year, believing a break could be necessary after a dramatic rise from player to coach within the space of three years.
One thing is for sure, he won’t be the Reds’ coach in 2023.
Whether he remains as head coach beyond this weekend remains to be seen. That is the question on the tongues of many.
Some believe cutting him adrift, particularly with a bye-round to follow, makes sense and would allow a caretaker to prove themselves for the remainder of the season.
First-year assistant Mick Hennan, who coached Queensland University to six titles, could be an option should the Reds pull the cord.
But a number of sources have cautioned against the move, believing they would throw Heenan under the bus given the mountain the Reds have to climb and the difficult finish to the season they have, where they will play three New Zealand sides in their final four matches.
Some have also spoken about the huge leap from club coaching a couple of nights a week to jumping into the furnace on a full-time basis.
The Reds also want to land a big fish.
Sources have told The Roar the Reds have long wanted their next big signing announcement to be a coach, not a player.
You can understand why too, because, for all the talent in Queensland, the Reds have only had one strong season this century. It’s an inditement on the QRU.
Former Wallabies coach Robbie Deans, who has turned the Panasonic Wild Knights into Japanese heavyweights over the past decade, is likely the preferred target.
Deans has a strong relationship with the Reds given the Super Rugby franchise’s partnership with Wild Knights.
Over three decades of coaching, Deans has built one of international rugby’s strongest reputations of developing and nurturing talent and, indeed, delivering results.
Those three attributes are what the Reds need, either as a coach or director of rugby.
“Robbie Deans was a fantastic coach for the Crusaders, came and coached the Wallabies and when he got sacked from the Wallabies he went to Panasonic and has been there ever since and has done a fantastic job,” Wallabies coach Eddie Jones said of Deans on his podcast Eddie recently.
Whether the former Wallabies coach, whose winning percentage (58.67) was marginally higher than Jones’ first stint with Australia (57.89) and considerably higher than Ewen McKenzie and Michael Cheika (50) and Dave Rennie (38), wants the job remains to be seen.
While the 63-year-old’s family predominantly lives in Australia, Deans likely doesn’t need the task in the twilight of his coaching career.
The Reds’ Super Rugby-winning defence coach Matt Taylor would likely be interested, too.
Taylor, who is currently Peter Hewat’s assistant at Ricoh Black Rams, has a decade of international coaching experience in Scotland and the Wallabies.
The well-liked defence coach has some allies in Australia, with the former Wallabies assistant well respected by Scott Johnson, who is currently an advisor to the Reds, and met with board member Pat Howard before heading to Japan.
Closer to home, respected Super Rugby assistants Rob Seib (Brumbies), Jason Gilmore (Waratahs) and Tim Sampson (Rebels) are all products of Queensland’s pathways and would likely jump at the chance of taking on the role.
The question is: are any proven Super Rugby head coaches?
The answer is no, not yet anyway.
Not including Laurie Fisher, who won’t be seen in anything but a Brumbies bucket hat, nor Jim McKay, who isn’t travelling with the Reds, Sampson is the most experienced professional head coach currently in Australia and is quickly rebuilding his reputation in Melbourne.
But the Reds can’t afford to get their next head coach wrong.
For a state with as much talent coming through the pathways, Australian rugby is relying on the Reds rising once more. Nor can it be a Halley’s Comet like in 2011 either.
Chivas
Roar Rookie
The point I took exception to Twas was that you think his support only comes from kiwis who like him because he was born in NZ and played for the AB's or are outdated. I simply call bs on that. I think he had more support than those two factions. In fact i doubt that people eho think him kiwi me kiwi had sny say in the matter at.all. i'd love to see your evidence.
Chivas
Roar Rookie
As well as generalisations you now want to put words in my mouth. Righto...
Chivas
Roar Rookie
I agree with that Oz.
Chivas
Roar Rookie
I think its hilarious that an expert like yourself isnt on the QRU board. You would think they would be champing at the bit for someone like you. I wonder why they haven't been in contact. You could straighten the reds out in a heartbeat right and have them making money and exciting fans. Reach out to them Twas and let us know how it goes.
Cattledog
Roar Guru
Horses for courses RR. We have a different psyche to NZ well understood by Aussies
Cattledog
Roar Guru
I agree Don, the Australian psyche is different to NZ thus, in my opinion, NZ coaches have not performed as expected in Australia. Matty Taylor would make a great head coach for the Reds. He knows how to get the best from players and if not undermined, will turn around the Reds fortunes. Possibly hard to get him back but I hope the QRU don’t have their rose coloured glasses on. Brad, it’s time to go!
TJ-Go Force!
Roar Rookie
Yeah I think there is validity to your point too Bluesfan. You’d like to think, that’s what they would have done. I was thinking about this more, and actually the best year to launch a domestic comp is 2026, 2027 or 2028. Building up to or off the back of the success of a home World Cup. The next 4 years are so pivotal to bringing rugby back.
Honest Max
Roar Rookie
Mark Ella and Lewis played different positions. Stop listening to ignorant people.
Muzzo
Roar Rookie
Some do work Quacker, & if anything why would anyone trust someone that know sfa about nothing, as you?? At least I can spout I've possibly put more back into the game since my playing days that you possibly ever have. Is that your private school education coming out, I assume?
rusty
Roar Rookie
dream on
Busted Fullback
Roar Rookie
G’day numpty. I put the beginning of Frisby’s problems in the hands of Cheika on the EOYT that NF was chosen for. Even before the tour had finished, NF looked as though he had lost all interest in the game. As a schoolboy he had all the talent and skill, but because of that one tour we are now left to ponder what might have been, thanks to MC not BT.
Doctordbx
Roar Rookie
Not getting enough attention today Muzzo you want to pick up a 24 hour old comment? Just roll out of bed on school holidays? I'm here for you mate... I can be the father you never had.
Muzzo
Roar Rookie
Well your proof of it, as even your nome de plume suggests. Like train without a station?? Why not train without a tunnel, as that would be far more appropriate Gubba!!
Muzzo
Roar Rookie
Oh the Quack has jumped out of his pond!! ffs talk about stupid. ( him )
Megeng
Roar Rookie
He once told his listeners that he is the best coach that ever lived
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Don I 100% agree that every losing coach cops it ( Deans did win at 58% tho ) but if the coach is a Kiwi in Aus they cop it more. Aus rugby players are very different people to NZ rugby players and NZ coaches dont suit coaching entitled players.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
I think it's hilarious Chivas challenges the notion that the QRU, an organisation with a history of making poor coaching appointments, has made a poor coaching appointment...
Bluesfan
You know you might be right - but given RA's relationship with the NZRFU I would imagine that they would have run the spec's of this type of comp over the desk of the likes of Stan and Fox - re: all important TV rights $ and reality is that there was little/no interest. Personally I'm sure if TV Rights holder had shown any interest in that type of concept - RA would have dropped Super/NZRFU in a flash - Hamish McLennan is clearly a switched on exc in regards opportunities and if he saw this potential comp as one he would have jumped at it.
Don
Roar Rookie
Mostly self interested, club biased and insular. So yes, old fashioned...
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
I don’t think he’s necessarily lost LSL and ASY. LSL fell out of wallaby contention, ASY was never in it, and both got good money offers. Hard to compete. Tupou, Mafi and Stewart all regular starters all trying to go to the rebels? That probably indicates issues with something at the Reds. None would be getting different money where they are now.