The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions Round 5: It's Gather Round time!

Welcome to Gather Round, everyone!

All 18 teams are heading to Adelaide (or in the case of Adelaide and Fremantle, staying there) for a four-day festival of footy the likes of which our game has never seen before (except when watching the NRL Magic Round the AFL has shamelessly ripped off).

On a tipping front, things finally seem to be getting easier: I got a 6 last week, which has gone embarrassingly close to doubling my season tally. I’m still five behind the leaders in our experts’ competition, but baby steps.

This week looks to once again be pretty straightforward – so the only question left is, how will I stuff it up this time? Let’s find out.

Tim Miller

Last week: 6

Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, GWS, Collingwood

Congratulations to the nine teams who won the coin flip to earn home side rights for this weekend’s games: what a stroke of luck for the AFL that both Adelaide and Port Adelaide won them! That would have been embarrassing otherwise. *sarcasm reader melts down*

It’s the Crows starting Gather Round off against Carlton; the Crows’ first chance at prime time in many a year. Wins over Port Adelaide and Fremantle have got the footy world buzzing, but the Blues are a different beast altogether.

Fair warning: I’m picking Carlton in this one – with Sam Walsh, Matt Kennedy and Blake Acres back they’ve got enough depth to overcome the loss of Sam Docherty, plus Harry McKay avoided a suspension. I’m still not yet sold on the Crows’ midfield against the best sides out there, plus that Blues defence is a tough nut to crack.

A Friday double-header was probably unavoidable given concurrent games weren’t an option this weekend; congrats to Freo fans who will have to find a way to watch their team play Gold Coast during the middle of working hours. This is a danger game for the Dockers, against a Suns side that, while equally poor for three rounds, did beat Geelong two weeks ago. I haven’t quite given up on Fremantle yet; I will if they can’t get it done here.

A Tom Lynch-less Richmond plays a McCartin brothers-less Sydney in the battle of wounded Giants in the night proper. While the Tigers also have no ruckman with Toby Nankervis out, Peter Ladhams isn’t exactly Max Gawn either. This is the sort of backs-to-the-wall game Richmond have made a habit of winning since their golden era started; but this ain’t the Tigers of old, and the Swans will be out for redemption after consecutive losses.

Let’s speed run through Saturday afternoon: I can’t see Brisbane losing to North Melbourne if they can knock over Melbourne and Collingwood, though Mt Barker is a fair way off the Gabba. Ditto Melbourne beating Essendon – both being 3-1 is probably just a trick of the light given the Bombers’ easy draw, though I’ll have to eat my words if they can knock off the Dees.

To Saturday night, where my Bulldogs play Port Adelaide. The Dogs have a more than handy 4-5 record against the Power in Adelaide, including THAT preliminary final. That’s enough for me to back in my boys for the first time since Round 2 – and yes, I’m nervous that I’ll jinx them, having tipped incorrectly in their games four out of four weeks so far.

Geelong have a choice of either going through the motions for a six-goal win against an injury-plagued West Coast, or racking up a cricket score like they did in the second half against Hawthorn. If you’re an Eagles fan, you’re probably taking a ten-goal loss here.

GWS play Hawthorn in a match I suspect most people will stop paying attention to at half time; the Hawks try hard but are basically a rabble, and the Giants, while no Geelong, have too much talent to be dropping a game like this.

The blockbuster of the weekend wraps up the round – yes, Collingwood and St Kilda would have got 70,000 to the MCG, but the South Australian government gave up $14 million for the opportunity to host a big game like this. All I’ll say is, you’d better fill the joint for this one!

This is when we learn for sure whether the Saints are genuine, or whether their wins over Fremantle, the Bulldogs, Essendon and Gold Coast was just cashing in against mid-table opposition. I reckon they’ll take the fight right to the Pies, but I can’t help wondering whether they’re due a down week like Collingwood had last week.

Magpies for mine – so if my tipping this year is any guide, you should probably be putting your house on St Kilda.

(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Dem Panopoulos

Last week: 6

Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, GWS, Collingwood

Gather round, gather round, for South Australia is going to put on a show for us all this weekend.

Sure, the weather looks like it’ll make for sloppy, low-scoring football, but this latest, ‘borrowed’ innovation should be good fun regardless.

The in-form Crows hosting the undefeated Blues is an intriguing contest to kick things off. I’m interested to see if the Blues can speed up their ball movement to counteract the pressure Adelaide will inevitably apply. The drier conditions lean it slightly in Carlton’s favour, but I’m still backing the Crows.

Without doubt, my most disappointing teams through the opening month of the season have been the Dockers and the Suns. It’s probably best they play each other so early, one team is going to have four losses to their name and have to work hard to get back. It’s possible though. Dockers for me.

The Tigers are depleted but the Swans are lacking in the key defensive stocks. The rain actually negatively impacted Richmond against the Bulldogs last week, so with the forecast, it’s hard to support them.

I’m not convinced by Brisbane, but more on that in tomorrow’s piece. They’ll still win easily against North. We can expect the Demons to also handle Essendon with relative ease – they’re such a powerful unit with a couple of stars to welcome back soon. The premiership favourites should put on a show.

Back in the day, we used to flip a coin when we were unsure – I’m not sure if we can do the same with a Bitcoin, but if we could, it’d land on the Dogs in the wet over Port Adelaide

Geelong beats an Eagles team that will try hard for a bit, but given their inexperience, will taper off. Immediately after, GWS and Hawthorn should play a relatively fast-paced sort of game: they’re not the best users going forward, so they won’t be affected by the wet as much as others. The Giants have been more competitive so far this season, so should get the chocolates.

Finally, my big tip is that in completely dry conditions, Collingwood would beat St Kilda by 10+ goals with their speed of ball movement and ability to overwhelm stern defences. In the wet, they’ll have to settle for just the four points.

Shane McAdam of the Crows. (Photo by Mark Brake/Getty Images)

Cameron Rose

Last week: 5

Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Geelong, GWS, Collingwood.

Another poor week from me with just 5 – but this week looks the easiest of the lot to tip so far. Of course, that’ll probably mean upsets galore, so be warned.

Even with Harry McKay now available, Carlton will have their work cut out for them to knock over the Crows at Adelaide Oval. They’re flying at the moment with one of the most potent forward lines in the game, and as the showpiece event of ‘Gather Round’ the Crows have got extra motivation to claim their third win in a row

Fremantle and Gold Coast begin a Friday double-header banished to Norwood: off-Broadway probably suits both teams at the moment, with the loser here to be in dire straits. Freo should win – but don’t be surprised if the Suns’ midfield gets on top.

A Tom Lynch, Toby Nankervis-less Richmond is a very different outfit to come up against, and they weren’t exactly all-conquering with those two. Sydney, on the other hand, have lost both McCartins and Lance Franklin – sadly, though, they’ll probably function better without Buddy in attack. It’s hard to see the Tigers getting up here.

To Saturday, and Brisbane get the chance to finally get a win away from the Gabba against a North Melbourne outfit with bubble well and truly burst by back-to-back losses. A solid introduction to AFL football for Mount Barker.

Back to the Adelaide Oval next for the double-header, with one game far more interesting than the other. They’re both 3-1, but Melbourne aren’t going to be troubled by an Essendon outfit whose only opposition of note to date has been St Kilda, whom they lost to. Saturday night should be tight – I’m backing Port’s home ground advantage and improving forward line to be too much for a Dogs outfit that, consecutive wins aside, are still the worst team in the league at defending in transition.

Sunday is a proper mixed bag. Geelong could easily do to West Coast what they did to Hawthorn, just over a full game instead of a half. This will probably get ugly. GWS taking on Hawthorn could be ugly too, just on both teams’ count: the Giants have been plucky but outclassed for much of the first month of the season, and should benefit from taking on a clearly worse opposition for once.

As befits the AFL, the match of the round has been scheduled for twilight on Sunday evening. In fairness, no one could have predicted how good St Kilda were going to be – though fixturing Collingwood at that timeslot seems counter-productive. This will be a cracker, the ball will move at the speed of light all game, and the Pies will win a thriller despite Rowan Marshall racking up a billion hitouts in the ruck.

(Will Russell/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Liam Salter

Last week: 6

Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood

Gather ’round, it’s ‘Gather Round’ (he says, assuming the AFL’s marketing team would approve of any AFL journo using some variation of that in a headline)! 

All nine clashes are coming from my city this week, and I officially have zero clue who or what to tip anymore. Ain’t it fun?

It wasn’t surprising that tonight’s Crows-Blues clash sold out very, very quickly: both are flying at the moment, and this is a tough one to predict with any certainty. It’s inarguable that Carlton are a stronger side – they sit second, after the resurgent Saints, for very good reason – but I’m so enamoured with the Crows’ development right now I can’t go past them here. Starting off with a risky tip? Yep. 

Moving to Friday, the double-header opens in Adelaide’s affluent east, with Freo and the Suns earning the dubious honour of a twilight Friday arvo start at Norwood Oval – which may actually be a good thing given how atrocious their form has been. This was always going to be a non-negotiable win for the Dockers, but it’s now absolutely vital they win if they’re any hope of arresting their struggling season – and win they should do, plunging the Suns further into their disappointing opening to 2023.  

Battered and bruised, the Tigers would be peeved with their closely run loss last weekend, but, like their opponents in Sydney, have been beset by injury. Richmond’s outs are likely more significant than the Swans, though, so I’ll back the Sydneysiders.

In the spirt of South Australia stealing the footy limelight away from our Victorian frenemies, I’m sticking with non-Victorian teams for two more games, backing the Lions (likely easily) and Port Adelaide (likely narrowly) to defeat the Kangas and the Bulldogs, respectively. Neither are sure bets though – with the Dogs almost certainly to push the Power all the way through their Saturday evening clash.

But don’t worry, the Essendon-Melbourne clash in between means at least one Victorian team is guaranteed a win on Saturday, and the Demons it shall be. 

Sunday is a very mixed bag – now they’re (probably) up and running, you’d expect the Cats to comfortably beat the Eagles in what is essentially the warm-up for Sunday’s second Adelaide Oval game, while in the middle in Norwood is the Giants and the Hawks. With neither team performing well, I’m going to back Sam Mitchell’s underdogs to earn a scratchy victory. 

But everyone knows the real show comes a few hours later with the Magpies and the Saints. Yet another ‘release a club statement’ controversy aside, the Pies need redemption after a loss last week, whereas the Saints would obviously be out to keep their spot atop the ladder.

The Magpies faltered last week, but tend to respond strongly after a loss, and unfortunately, I suspect Ross Lyon’s brilliant start as Saints coach will hit its first hurdle here. The Pies in a close one. 

Rowan Marshall (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

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