Is it really happening? Could St Kilda and Essendon finally be legitimate contenders?

Is it really happening? Could St Kilda and Essendon actually be legit?

It was easy enough to write off the Saints and Bombers after the first four rounds and assume that reality would soon be hitting them square between the eyes.

St Kilda opened the season against two of last year’s finalists in Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs, and although they won both matches it was clear that those particular teams were woefully out of form across the first two weeks. And frankly, neither have done much to recommend them since.

The Saints then beat the Bombers themselves in Round 3, before trouncing a Gold Coast outfit that is responsible for some of the worst performances of any side this year.

Essendon were similarly blessed by the fixture Gods early in the season. While St Kilda had the benefit of playing supposedly good teams at the right time, the Bombers’ draw did look soft on paper.

Most expected Hawthorn to be a poor team this year, and that was evidenced in Round 1 when Essendon ran amok in a 10-goal thumping. They also accounted for the Suns in an unimpressive Round 2 win, before their loss to St Kilda.

In Round 4, the Bombers eeked out a win against the Giants, who no one expects much of this year.

However, last weekend, in the wild success that the AFL’s Gather Round seemed to be, the critics were made to stand up and take notice of both clubs.

There is a fair bit of schadenfreude against Essendon in the rest of the AFL supporter population, amplified by the drugs saga from a decade ago, and many were eagerly awaiting the Bombers getting their comeuppance against Melbourne in Adelaide. They would be exposed for who they truly were.

Those people had plenty of egg on their faces to go with their bacon and hash browns on Sunday morning, after the Dons played an almost complete game against the premiership favourite Demons.

Anthony Caminiti of the Saints celebrates a goal. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

They lost the clearances, which is going to happen to most teams when going up against Brodie Grundy, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca, but won every other major statistical category.

They matched Melbourne in the contest, used the ball well but particularly going inside 50, applied fierce pressure all over the ground including up forward, defended hard, and created great scoring opportunities and took them.

Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish got a lot of ball, but we expect that from them. Dylan Shiel is having his best season in the red sash, Andrew McGrath might be finally ready to become an All-Australian half-back, and Will Setterfield has added that midfield grunt this team has been sorely lacking for a long time.

But it’s the lesser lights finding another level or two where real improvement comes from, that can catapult a team up a ladder. Sam Durham came a long way last year and is still progressing. Five goals between Sam Draper and Andrew Philips is gold from your two ruckmen. There are a series of players playing with confidence and belief.

Every player is contributing, and there is a sense of team and role about the Bombers that hasn’t been felt for many years. Brad Scott didn’t achieve much in 10 years at North Melbourne, but his role at AFL House and the natural experience that comes with time seems to have worked in his favour.

St Kilda has had precious little to celebrate in its history as one of the true minnows of the competition, with only one VFL/AFL premiership along the way. Still, they survive.

Collingwood are the acid test for any team in the league right now, and the Saints passed it with flying colours in only going down by a goal to them last Sunday.

Perhaps they were flattered by kicking three goals in the last five minutes of play due to the Pies slightly taking their foot off the throttle, but there was nothing fake about the first three-quarters of a flint-hard struggle and the age-old battle between attack and defence.

Ross Lyon is synonymous with defensively sound teams. It is the very core of his DNA. But to have his team only conceding 59 points per game, having only been in command for a short time, is a stunning achievement in the early part of the season.

The points-against gap between St Kilda and the second-best defensive team (16 points – Sydney has conceded 75 points per game), is essentially the same as the gap between second and 14th.

In dry conditions this season, Collingwood has averaged 29 scoring shots per game. They’re an offensive juggernaut. The Saints kept them to 20.

Essendon’s Will Setterfield celebrates kicking a goal. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

St Kilda fans will be ropeable if Callum Wilkie doesn’t get All Australian selection this year, given what an impressive defensive pillar he’s become. The unheralded Blues reject Liam Stocker and the young Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera are contributing above their station.

Mason Wood is having his best-ever season, Hunter Clark is putting together the most consistent patch of form in a career riddled with injury and form issues, and the likes of Mitch Owens, Mattaes Phillipou and Marcus Windhager all have something special about them.

Ross Lyon teams have often struggled to fire up forward, but the Saints are currently respectable in that regard. And that’s with their two best forwards, Max King and Tim Membrey, yet to play. Key driver Jack Steele has missed the last three games, and Jack Billings is yet to be seen either.

Yep, the Saints and Bombers have made us sit up and take notice now, and the focus will rightly intensify on them to see if they can keep proving they are up to finals. Occupying the top two spots on the ladder will give them a great start.

St Kilda have Carlton and Port in the next two weeks, two teams that have fluctuated in form this year, but they’ll fancy themselves in each game before having an easier time against North.

For Essendon though, a brutal examination awaits in the next four games – Collingwood, Geelong off a five-day turnaround, then Port and Brisbane both interstate. The Bombers have been stitched right up by AFL House there.

These two clubs, for so long either forgotten, irrelevant, or downright pathetic, appear to be on the right path at long last. Credit where it’s due to their new coaches and the off-field management that may have finally gotten things right. Let’s see how far it can take them in 2023.