Not too far from my house in Sydney, there is major bus exchange. Head north-west and you’ll end up in Castle Hill or Cherrybrook. Alternatively, catch the 610 in a south-west direction and in around 15 minutes you will find yourself at CommBank Stadium.
Last Sunday evening, while taking a stroll around the neighbourhood, Parramatta fans spilled off the local bus services at the exchange, cock-a-hoop with their 30-4 win over the busted Dogs.
There was plenty of noise, heaps of smiling faces and a few intruders in blue and white kit were copping a friendly verbal pasting from the locals.
One middle-aged woman looked well lubricated as she sprinted against the lights, crossing the busy main road whilst shouting, “Parraaaaaaa”. A young fella brandished a large flag that drew plenty of toots from passing Eels fans in cars and the whole scene reminded of grand final week in 2022, when the dream of ending one of the NRL’s longest premiership droughts had the locals in a lather.
As others dressed in Eels jerseys wandered through, a guy said, “The Eels are back!”
Eels fans are sensing their team is on the rise, but could it be a false dawn? (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Which made me think: “Don’t go off too soon buddy”.
There was one meritorious win over the Panthers in Round 4, but little else of note early on. However, Parramatta have now claimed the last four points on offer to them.
A 28-22 win at Accor Stadium on Easter Monday against the Tigers was far closer than they had hoped and more difficult than most had expected, whilst the Bulldogs were put to the sword with a little more ease due to a horrific injury count that actually worsened during the match.
Watching the fans enjoy the better results and the team having done all it could over the last fortnight to re-ignite a season that began in the slowest manner possible, had me wondering just how real the Eels actually are.
Could the recent wins, due to the fragility of the opponents, be nothing more than a false dawn? Does the data support a true reversal in fortunes or have the Eels simply played a couple of soft opponents?
We will have an answer of sorts in a few hours’ time. The Broncos will meet Parramatta in Darwin for a match that could well define the Eels and their season when looked at in retrospect.
If they win over the red hot competition leaders, the rebound in form will be confirmed. If they get towelled up by a team dominating a host of statistical categories and it will be fact that Parramatta have only snatched wins when expected against lesser opposition and are a little off the pace of the serious contenders.
Statistically, the numbers suggest the Eels have some fundamental weaknesses in their game, ones likely to be exposed by Kevin Walters’ men.
Parramatta sit 11th in completions, at a not disastrous 76 per cent, yet it will be the 79 errors affecting those completions that will have coach Brad Arthur concerned. That error count sees the Eels ranked a poor 13th in the NRL and their 119 ineffective tackles places the blue and gold second worst, with only the Storm poorer in that metric.
There have been far too many missed tackles, 217 in fact, with most of the teams looking likely to make the top eight this season well under the 200 mark in that statistical category.
Aside from the eight line breaks made by Maika Sivo, no other Eel has more than three and the team ranks 11th collectively for total line breaks. Clint Gutherson is the only Eel inside the top 50 for tackle breaks, at 50th.
Maika Sivo continues to be a powerhouse for the Eels. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Concerningly, there have been plenty of run metres (12,334), offloads (85) and total runs (1,350), without too much to show for it, with the Eels ranked in the top three in the competition in all three areas.
Just three wins and a worrying 150 points conceded has Arthur’s team well off the pace of the competition benchmarks. Reed Mahoney’s dummy-half running has been a key loss, with Gutherson again the only Eel inside the NRL top 50 with 17 efforts, well below the numbers being racked up by the game’s clever decision makers in that area.
In a nutshell, the Eels appear to get a decent amount of ball, sitting mid-table and bang on 50 per cent possession, can manage to score on their day, yet also concede far too easily.
Parramatta’s statistical profile is not of a top eight team right now, let along top four. Two recent wins may have given some the impression that they are about to step into contention once again, yet the Broncos could well obliterate that view in Darwin.
Or it appears the Eels have another false dawn on their hands.
danwain
Roar Rookie
It's not luck, the NRL clearly looks after them, happens every year. Also, check out magic round, every year they play it at home but the deal is that it's never a Broncos home game.
Smiffy
Roar Rookie
Thanks Stuart for the article. Interesting to read about the poor stats for Parra. I would say though that singling them out as not the real deal seems a bit rough given the state of the comp so far this year. Looking at the table and the results so far if you take the 2 points for the bye off the Panthers, Sharks, Manly, Roosters and the Titans, Parra move up to 8th. All the real deals have all had 3 (Bunnies, Sharks, Storm) or 4 (Panthers) losses. Of them its the Bunnies that look the best of the bunch given their draw and that they have beaten both the Sharks and Panthers. Its such a up and down comp that I would say that calling anyone the real deal or not at this point in time is premature.
Andrew01
Roar Rookie
They are 6 wins 2 losses historically. But they got belted by the Cowboys last year 35-4. I say belted, it was one of the more bizarre stat lines for a belting with the Eels completing at 84%, having 41 tackles in the opp 20m compared to 10, and more post contact metres. But the line breaks were 1-7. They trailed 19-0 at the hour mark, scored a try then conceded 3 in the last 5-10 minutes.
Tetley
Roar Rookie
Yep. Agree.
Cam
Roar Rookie
For sure, they are absolutely flying at the moment, but the next couple of months might put the skids on the Kevolution. If they come out the back of Origin and are still in the top 4, I reckon they are well in the mix for the title.
Tetley
Roar Rookie
And then there’s the bunnies! Horror draw but sitting high on the ladder.
Tetley
Roar Rookie
It's a good point. But to trot out a well-worn adage you can only play what's in front of you and the broncos have done that pretty well this year. I think this is a good test for them.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Have the Eels ever lost in Darwin ? I think it is their favourite ground ?
Andrew01
Roar Rookie
If the Eels win- it will be a statement. If they lose, it really tells us nothing. Short turn around, humid conditions (so unfriendly to the team with poorer preparation), against a good opponent. It is what it is. The stats quoted stack up and all come back to the guy in the middle. Josh Hodgson. 6 games played for 77m - with one 40m run (of sorts) in there from broken play. The 6th most minutes played by a hooker this year and he has the 15th most metres (and it would be more like 23rd without that one run mentioned above). Add in all the tackles he bounces off and the misses that he doesn't get counted for because he is too slow and that is the root cause of the issues on both sides of the ball. With Walsh at the back I am looking for a Broncos long range try to night. A tired kick chase and watch for the aforementioned paramatta hooker not to be in the kick chase line - which is usually the hallmark of a good hooker. That said Clint Gutherson is the only Eel inside the top 50 for tackle breaks, at 50th Yet the Eels coming into Rd 8 rank 2nd in total metres after contact and 5th in average points per game - so attack can't be too bad considering the draw they have had.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Yes the Eels are the real deal but only because the premiership this year seems to be wide open so pretty much all the 'top' teams are the real deal this year with a real shot at winning. I still have my money on the Panthers though. Even though they have lost a couple both were pretty close with the opposition having to play their absolute best to win. All the other contenders have lost games by a big margin or to opposition that weren't at their absolute best or lower ranked teams. In finals you need to be playing your best consistentlyevery week and at the moment only the Panthers can lay claim to that.
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Yeah, their draw is pretty good. A great number of home games. Does anyone know if this is due to others team taking some coin to play their home games at bronco’s stadium? Or it just luck?
E-Meter
Roar Rookie
We're not back. The win against Canterbury was a much needed step forward. More importantly only one try was conceded. But yes Canterbury have major injury worries and not full strength. The game before we only just beat Wests, who are hopeless writ large. Big test tonight and a win would boost the confidence tank.
Nick
Roar Rookie
Since the great choke of 2001, the only other time the Eels have produced a premiership winning squad was in 2009, but unfortunately there was also a better illegally built squad running around winning trophies for fun. They've not been the real deal since. Despite making the GF, they were just making up the numbers last year
Cam
Roar Rookie
You make a good point with the Broncs, this season they have had one game outside of Qld and enjoyed a dream draw, including five home games on the trot, mostly against bottom 8 teams. They play the Eels in Darwin and then get six in a row against top 8 teams, with matches in Sydney, Melbourne and NZ. Kev Walter’s will lose his best players to Origin (Reece Walsh, Cobbo, Haas, Capewell and Carrigan), which also has a knock-on effect with juggling minutes and resting these players coming out of Origin. Brisbane could potentially drop a bunch of their next 7 matches and kill their season (Eels away, Souths, Manly, Storm away, Panthers, Warriors in NZ, Shark’s away).
Tim Carter
Roar Pro
Beat me to it, McTavish (my favorite police drama). There are so many teams who have been dealt finals football draws who are 'struggling', and a bunch of teams who have had an easy ride and are placed higher on the ladder than their performances warrant.
McTavish
Roar Rookie
“The Broncos will meet Parramatta in Darwin for a match that could well define the Eels and their season when looked at in retrospect.” The same could be said for the Broncos. They too have only a Panthers scalp as their notable win against premiership level quality opposition for the year, even though they sit top of the ladder.