The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions Round 9: Wait... you're picking CARLTON?

8s and 9s were the order of the day last week – and for most of you out there, I’m guessing the one that would have stopped a rare perfect round was the ultimate scourge of tipsters, Carlton.

The Blues’ loss to Brisbane in Round 8’s only real 50/50 game has sparked a week of intense media criticism, left fans despondent, and the team under real pressure to turn things around soon. So basically every other week at Ikon Park these days.

With another straightforward round ahead of us, the Blues’ clash with the Western Bulldogs on Saturday night again looms as the biggest tipping challenge of the weekend – and it has certainly divided our expert tipping panel.

Are any upsets in store for the weekend, or will it be Michael Voss’ men who decide the fate of us all once more?

Tim Miller

Last week: 9

Geelong, Gold Coast, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane, Carlton, Adelaide, Collingwood

Let’s get this out of the way: yes, I’m tipping Carlton against my Bulldogs.

Why? Simple. Nothing is more certain to galvanise the group than a week with the footy world ganging up on them. Geelong haven’t looked back since they were deemed ‘cooked’ by David King earlier this year, for one. Then there’s the fact the Blues have a great recent record on the Bulldogs, winning three of their last five matches, losing one of the others by under a goal and leading by 27 points midway through the third quarter of the other.

Add to that my ongoing pessimism about backing in the Bulldogs, and it’s a simple choice: either I get my tip right, or my team dodges a bullet. I’m hedging my bets.

It’s a pretty easy run through most of the rest: Friday night’s double-header should see Geelong power past Richmond even without Patrick Dangerfield, while Gold Coast showed enough against Melbourne to be comfortable favourites against a West Coast outfit held together by duct tape and prayers at this point.

As for Saturday, the most interesting thing about Port Adelaide’s clash with North Melbourne will probably be how many Kangaroos fans head to Tassie just to boo Jason Horne-Francis. Port by plenty, though Melbourne will likely beat Hawthorn by more, though the Hawks did push Melbourne all the way nearly 12 months ago to the day. In between, it’s disaster for the loser of Sydney and Fremantle, two major pre-season premiership contenders. Home ground advantage and the fact Freo only beat Hawthorn last week has me siding with the Swans.

Disappointingly, the Blues and Bulldogs go head-to-head with the only other really interesting game of Saturday – Brisbane hosting Essendon. The Lions are red-hot right now and really should be too strong for the Bombers, but the Dons have put up a real fight in their three consecutive losses, and might just be due a win. I’m not brave enough to tip them, though.

On to Mother’s Day, and Adelaide’s clash with St Kilda pits the best defence in the league against its most exciting forward line. Home ground advantage makes Adelaide hard to tip against, especially with the Saints coming slightly off the boil in recent weeks – but if Ross Lyon’s men can head back to Melbourne with a win, they’re almost locks for top four.

Finally, Collingwood have been relegated to the twilight zone when they face GWS: they’ll win, but I for one can’t wait to see if the Giants get stuck into Nick Daicos and whether Toby Greene gets booed as much as Lance Franklin did. *sarcasm disclaimer*

Patrick Cripps of the Blues celebrates his teams win on the final siren during the round two AFL match between the Western Bulldogs and the Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium on March 24, 2022 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor / Getty Images)

Dem Panopoulos

Last week: 8

Geelong, Gold Coast, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane, Carlton, Adelaide, Collingwood

Rarely do we get to this point of the season and can enter almost every game with confidence in our tips, yet here we are – and it’s glorious.

The strange, cross-over double-header Friday night is here to stay long into the future on Mother’s Day weekend, and for once, it makes you think whether rugby league has got it right in terms of their separation of games – although I daresay it’s easier to have a 6pm Friday night game when you expect only 4,000 people to attend.

Anyway, the battle of two wounded felines kicks us off. The Tigers won last week over West Coast, but did they REALLY win anything? To be completely honest, they’re not as bad as their record shows, only offensive inefficiency has held them back from a few more wins – but the Cats are impossible to not tip here.

In the second match, Gold Coast are officially a good, competitive team. They should beat the Eagles, although it’d be vintage Suns to show wonderful signs against a flag favourite, only to lose to the prospective wooden spooners. Still, up the Suns.

Sydney too, aren’t that bad overall. They need to make a statement sooner rather than later, but a win against the Dockers who don’t travel well to NSW will only serve to tick a box though. Port Adelaide have been super impressive and North Melbourne are finally playing some younger guys, making this a fun contest if you don’t care for the scoreboard. Port easily.

Melbourne will beat Hawthorn in their second twilight Saturday game in a row; this time, they ought to do it more handily than their win over Gold Coast. Lucky for them, the Hawks couldn’t quite get Noah Anderson across. On Saturday night, the Bombers beat Brisbane at the Gabba last year, although it’s easy to forget that the Lions were missing 16 players due to COVD and nearly had to bring Rhan Hooper out of retirement. The same result is unlikely.

I reckon Carlton might just silence a few people this weekend – it’s not as if the Bulldogs are playing incredibly well themselves. They’re just winning games, so we ignore any potential issues, and it means they might be due a loss.

In January, it seemed like a huge call to suggest Adelaide would finish above the Saints, and the reaction indicated as much. Not even a galaxy brain meme would have thought that these teams would be seen as even peripheral flag chances at this stage of the season, so credit to both clubs. It’s the Crows at home for me.

Finally, Collingwood should leave any fans celebrating Mother’s Day smiling – no jokes here. The Pies are just that fun to watch, and will be too strong for GWS regardless of whether Toby Greene gets up.

(Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

Cameron Rose

Last week: 8

Geelong, Gold Coast, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane, Carlton, Adelaide, Collingwood

We have three potentially interesting games this weekend – four if you’re a glutton for punishment – but the rest makes this a pretty drab weekend of AFL action.

Let’s get the boring out of the way first. Friday night’s double-header could hardly be less captivating – I doubt many people on the east coast will be staying up late to watch Gold Coast thrash the pants off West Coast, while Geelong losing Patrick Dangerfield would make them vulnerable… if Richmond weren’t missing Toby Nankervis and Tom Lynch and just aren’t that good anymore.

Port Adelaide will beat North Melbourne by a point for every Jason Horne-Francis boo – and there will be plenty. Melbourne, if they’re serious, will do the same to Hawthorn – I’m interested to see whether they’re ruthless enough to shut the door on the 100-point win that they let the Kangaroos escape.

At twilight on Mother’s Day, while I’m still bullish on GWS – they’d have beaten the Bulldogs last week if Toby Greene hadn’t been a late out, which might have changed my tip if I’d known about it – they’re not beating Collingwood on their own turf.

The ‘glutton for punishment’ game is a win-or-you’re-cooked clash between Sydney and Fremantle. The Swans have lost five of their last six but threw away two victories in that time – the Dockers’ 3-5 record is far grimmer. It’s Sydney for me, but wouldn’t it be a disaster for them if Freo stormed the SCG.

I’m giving Essendon the benefit of the doubt in being able to put up a fight against Brisbane: the Lions won’t be getting beaten at the Gabba unless something goes horribly wrong – like the million COVID cases they copped last year before going down to the Bombers – but I like what Brad Scott is doing this year, and expect Essendon to bounce back at some point from their losing streak and really push for finals when their draw opens up.

Adelaide and St Kilda is a genuine coin-flip – I’ve gone for the Crows on home ground advantage, but despite a poor record at the Adelaide Oval, the Saints are a huge chance here. If their defence can keep the Crows’ star-studded forward line to under 80 points – and they’re average score against is under 60 this year – then they’ll win. Big if, though.

Lastly, I’m with Tim and Dem on picking Carlton – the Blues should be up for the fight after getting kicked all week, had patches where they looked really good against Brisbane, and Nic Newman getting off at the tribunal seems to be the sort of lucky break a team only gets when the worm turns. Plus, I’m still not sold on the Bulldogs being any good this year.

Nick Daicos of Collingwood competes for the ball with GWS’ Lachie Whitfield. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Liam Salter

Last week: 9

Geelong, Gold Coast, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Collingwood

Nine outta nine, baby. It’s a little less cool when I’m not the only one, but I’ll claim the glory all the same. It’s a rarity for me – as are my plans this week, which involve travelling to Melbourne and not seeing a game in footy. 

Also travelling to Melbourne, albeit only up the highway a little, are the Cats. Resoundingly back in form, the premiers face a struggling Richmond to open up Round 9.  The Tigers were buoyed by a win over the Eagles, but that’ll mean nought against the powerful Cats, who’ll win by plenty – even sans Patrick Dangerfield. 

Bizarrely enough, the Eagles also feature in a rare dual Friday night fixture, hosting Gold Coast. The Suns broke a rough Optus Stadium losing streak against their opponents last year, and absolutely need to prove last week’s narrow loss to the Demons won’t break their spirits. Expect the Eagles to show fight but lose a messy encounter. 

Saturday’s suite of games opens in the east, as the 3-5 Swans host the 3-5 Dockers. Freo earned their strongest win of the season – albeit over the Hawks – last week, and finally looked a smidgen more the side most expected them to be this year. In saying that, while the Swans have endured an equally tumultuous season in results thus far, they’re a far more potent side and at home, shouldn’t face a lot of trouble from the Western Australians.

A segue here into a trio of easy games to tip: Port Adelaide, who will face even less spirited opposition to comfortably beat the Kangas; the Demons haven’t lost to the Hawks in four years and won’t be doing so tomorrow; and the Pies, who will best the Giants on Mother’s Day Sunday. 

Adelaide and the Saints appears like it’ll be a beauty. These two are a little alike, punching above their weight to start the season, but have struggled in the past fortnight. St Kilda have proven they’re capable of beating better teams than the Crows, but they suck at Adelaide Oval – and for that reason, my confidence is heightened in the hosts.

The Bombers are sliding a little from their early season optimism, registering three admirable losses since Anzac Day. Unfortunately for Brad Scott, the task gets no easier against the Lions, who have amassed five consecutive wins.  It’s hard for me, with how strong the Lions are at the moment, to see this going any other way but a fourth straight admirable loss for Essendon. 

And, cutting to the chase, the Blues will be joining that club, too. Yes, they regularly have the Dogs’ measure. Yes, the Blues are likely to come out breathing fire. And, yes, I reckon they’re a better, more cohesive team than the Bulldogs.

But tipping sometimes just isn’t logical, and to be completely blunt, neither is the Carlton Footy Club: in most contexts, I reckon I’d be backing ‘em. But here, the Dogs are my favourites. I need to get on top of this leaderboard somehow, eh?

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

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