Flyhalf is the most important position in rugby, with no other position has as much impact on the outcome of a game.
They are generally the first receiver and the primary decision maker for their teams – it’s hard to be a champion team without a world-class No. 10.
Kick, pass, run – it is all decision-making at No. 10. Dan Carter, Stephen Larkham, Andrew Mehrtens, Michael Lynagh – are all legends of Trans-Tasman rugby over the past few decades due to their proficiency in these areas.
I like a good set of numbers. Stats don’t tell you everything, but they can be a good bit of fun to look at. In the URC a new methodology to test a player’s effectiveness was revealed – expected points, or xP.
It weighed up players’ stats such as run metres, penalties conceded, try assists etc and assigned points (either plus or minus) based on how important the play was for the game.
For example, winning a turnover at +0.6 points has a greater impact on the game than beating a defender at +0.1 points.
The complete set of points hasn’t been published online, but I found the overview and applied it to the top playmakers from Australia and NZ for this season. Here are the points values:
Try = +1.4
Try Assist = +1.4
Clean Break = +0.3
Running metres = +0.1 for every 10 metres run
Defenders beaten = +0.1 each
Turnovers Won = +0.6
Turnovers Conceded = -0.4
Penalties Conceded = -0.5
So are the No. 10s stacking up?
Carter Gordon +17.66
Damian McKenzie +14.80
Richie Mo’unga +14.48
Beauden Barrett +11.26
Noah Lolesio +6.18
Ben Donaldson +3.84
One area where the xP scoring system was not clear was for tackling. But that is easy to look at on its own:
Tackles made, tackles missed, tackle %
Gordon 108 / 17 / 86%
McKenzie 60 / 9 / 87%
Lolesio 50 / 15/ 77%
Donaldson 42 / 7 / 86%
Mo’unga 40 / 11 / 78%
Barrett 20 / 6 / 77%
We all know Gordon is an excellent defender with a high work rate. McKenzie has been pretty successful this season and there isn’t much between the rest.
There is so much more to being a great No. 10 than just the numbers but the data backs up my eye test on how the players this season are performing.
There is good and bad for Australian rugby from these numbers. For one, it is excellent to see how well Gordon has performed compared to McKenzie, Mo’unga and Barrett (who are all world-class players in their own right).
But the Kiwis currently have three No. 10s who stack up very well. For us, it’s Gordon then daylight. Similar to when we had Larkham at No. 10.
Of course, Quade Cooper played well last year but he may not have many years left in his legs. Is it going to be another decade of sweating on Gordon’s fitness for the Wallabies like it was with Larkham?
Either way, it is going to be a great ride. The future looks pretty good when we have a No. 10 playing in the third-last placed team in Super Rugby playing so effectively.
Guess
Roar Rookie
Yep in fact if your flyhalf makes lots of tackles it means your forwards aren’t doing their job
rusty
Roar Rookie
I'm pretty sure they mic the commentary team to the refs. Like they do with the umpires in cricket.
jcmasher
Roar Rookie
Lies, damn lies and statistic! Such a true statement. Not sure any team would really want Gordon over Barrett, Mo’Unga or McKenzie and just goes to show how rubbish these sorts of statistics are. It’s like so many times when a team loses we hear about the game statistics and for some reason the losing team has the best score. This tells me we’re capturing the wrong statistics in the wrong way. Personally I think rugby is such a dynamic game with so much going on that pure raw statistics are only a small part of what is going on and that’s why they aren’t really useful.
Cec
Roar Rookie
That goes without saying a 10 behind a Chiefs, Brums or Saders pack may enjoy the game a bit more than others :laughing: I’m not sure if it evens out if you’re just measuring skills. A line break or try assist against a Chiefs, Canes or Saders team may be harder to execute and perhaps “worth more” than the same executed skills vs a Tahs, Reds or Force defence.
Cec
Roar Rookie
Yes Ken and I’m not sure it has to be complex. For example, a try assist against the Tahs has a multiplier of 1.0 whereas a try assist against the Chiefs has that skill multiplied by 3. Multipliers can be determined by the Tahs or Chiefs position on the ladder at the time the game is played. As long as their is consistency with the multipliers relative to the opponent’s position on the ladder.
Rhys
Roar Rookie
As one eyed as it comes that day. And then you got to the biased referees…
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Adam to be honest Id be more worried about Carder Gorden doing way more tackles that all other 10s. It tells me he defends in the line when most 10s drop into the pocket and wait for the kick. His workload in defence will effect his attack. It would be interesting to see if he tackles mainly forwards or backs because a forward or a big 12 coming at you all day can be very tiring.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
But he was part of the REDS going downhill. It wasnt just the other 30 squad members.
adam smith
Roar Rookie
It's a shame as he was a fantastic athlete. It's bad example to up-&-coming players too, not to mention I'd be pretty pi$$ed at his attitude if I were his teammate.
Jazz
Roar Rookie
He's good but not that good to say he has advanced better than McKenzie and co, in fact i dont think you can compare, they are all distinctly different. Carter has great attack but his defense needs much improvement, need a 10 to have best of both otherwise opposition will play on it.
rusty
Roar Rookie
You get the early weekend. Go and have a cold shower!! Maybe you'll be better next week.
rusty
Roar Rookie
I've never forgiven SA commentary for that one.
Decoy
Roar Rookie
I've just noticed that rugby statisticians are not listed on my game bird license. Very disappointing.
Adam Rogers
Roar Rookie
It's not all doom and gloom, Lynagh is being eased into Super Rugby.
Dean
Roar Rookie
Have you been canceled in NZ yet Bentnuc? :laughing: Seriously though, a really interesting article, thank you. The amount of tackles Gordon has made, compared to the others - WOW! Here is hoping his knee injury is not bad.
Bentnuc
Roar Pro
Very true Pass. It would be good to have line break assists, try involements etc
Bentnuc
Roar Pro
Yep think it was 20 pens to 2 or something like that. And the Rebs were still in it! They were playing some great rugby at that point
Bentnuc
Roar Pro
Ah Toole and Marky N have surely got it. They look like rock stars
Bentnuc
Roar Pro
Massive QC fan. But a lot of pressure on a 22 year old. Being a 10 and winning a SR title. All the Hope's were pinned on him. And then when the Reds went downhill it was even tougher
Passit2me
Roar Rookie
So “who is to blame”? When it comes to looking at the Rebels win/loss performance, the inclination is to blame Carter Gordon? “Stats don’t mean anything, it’s opponents, team mates and winning”. But when it comes to analysing and displaying CG’s positive attributes, it’s irrelevant as it’s all about the team? Nice twist Tooly. So is winning (and losing) to be blamed on the 10 or the team and the cattle that makes it up?