Have Collingwood and Port peaked too early? The smokies that are timing their run to September

Not since the days of the Geelong/St Kilda era of the late 2000s have we seen such pronounced dominance at the top of the ladder this far into an AFL season.

Collingwood and Port Adelaide both have 13 wins from their 15 matches, two clear of Brisbane in third and a further two clear of Melbourne in fourth place. St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs also have nine wins alongside the Demons, in fifth and sixth respectively.

There is a bigger gap between Port in second and Melbourne in fourth than there is between Melbourne in fourth and Richmond in 15th.

The last time we saw a disparity like this after Round 16 was 2009, when St Kilda and Geelong were streets ahead of their rivals – the Saints were six games clear and Geelong were four games clear of the team in fourth. Those two teams eventually played in one of the great Grand Finals.

Geelong was also four and a half games clear of fourth in 2008, and as we know they were beaten in the big dance.

In the last 10 years, there has been a general feeling that the premiership team has not necessarily been the best team all year, but the one that has peaked in September. Before Melbourne in 2021 and Geelong last year, only once in the prior 10 seasons had the team on top of the ladder at the end of the home-and-away rounds gone on to win the flag.

Max Gawn shares the premiership trophy with Dees fans. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

In terms of playing your best footy at the right time of year, that time starts now.

Looking at the last four premiers, Geelong, Melbourne and Richmond’s back-to-back efforts in 2019-20, between them they only lost two games from Round 17 on, and all of them won their last four matches heading into finals.

Richmond in 2017 also only lost one more game from this point of the season. Hawthorn’s three-peat saw them drop a combined four games from Round 17 across 2013-15.

The Western Bullodgs in 2016 are the biggest outlier in this regard, as that premiership often seems to be. They are the only premier in the last 10 years to lose more than two games in the run home, and also the only team to lose in the final home-and-away round, as an extra bit of trivia.

It’s not unfair to say Collingwood are a cut above every other team. Yes, they’ve have a couple of close scrapes against Adelaide, and lost to Brisbane and Melbourne, but it’s reasonable to think that they will carry on their way.

Much was made of the Pies’ ability to win close games in the second half of last season, something which ultimately proved unsustainable when losing two finals in a similar manner. They didn’t hit September in peak form, and tired out when it mattered most.

Craig McRae has the luxury of timing his run this time around.

Ken Hinkley and Port have been here before. The Power finished second in 2021 and first in 2020, yet didn’t make the Grand Final either time, despite hosting preliminary finals. There are demons there that have to be exorcised.

They’re currently on a 13-game winning streak, and must be wary that they have peaked too soon. Allegations of choking are lingering in the background, ready to be launched at anything less than a Grand Final berth.

Brisbane look like a team that are about to start building into peak performance. They’ve had their mid-season slump, either side of the bye, when they had their yearly loss to Hawthorn. Each win since then, against Sydney, St Kilda and Richmond, has been more impressive than the last.

Five of the Lions’ last eight games are in Queensland, and they have to tackle Melbourne, Fremantle and Collingwood on the road. They have every chance to build their momentum and become the right team at the right time.

Melbourne have been a bog ordinary team for a long time now, have only won two of their last six games and Bayley Fritsch, their best player alongside Christian Petracca this year, is out for two months. They aren’t going on any sort of premiership run.

St Kilda have tailed off and were never that good to begin with, the Bulldogs certainly can’t be trusted to anything meaningful, and it’s hard to see Geelong getting going after all they’ve been through this year.

Adelaide are the smoky, if one is going to emerge late in the year, similar to Richmond in 2017.

The Crows have already beaten Port this season, convincingly so, and have run Collingwood to a kick twice as well – both times they had more scoring shots than the Pies and only woeful inaccuracy kept them from sealing each game.

Jordan Dawson of the Crows. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Adelaide have the scoring firepower to test the best teams, but just have to become a bit more defensively resilient and really hone in on their consistency. Their best is as good as there is, but they are yet to show it week after week, quarter after quarter, for weeks and months on end. They get their chance now.

The smart money has to be on Collingwood and Port to go all the way from this point, but what has happened in the first four months of the season is far less important than what happens in the next three. Don’t be surprised at all if Brisbane or Adelaide are the teams than peak at the right time, rather than too early.