Matildas vs Republic of Ireland: Match preview, who wins and why

Playing on home soil means incredible support in the stands, along with an added layer of pressure the Matildas must overcome in their opening match of the 2023 World Cup against Republic of Ireland.

The Irish arrive in Australia for their first ever World Cup, ranked 22 in the world and off the back of a gritty 1-0 win over Scotland that broke the drought back in October. Prior to that, Georgia were thumped twice in European qualifying, with wins against Slovakia, Finland, Wales and Poland displaying that, despite a rather conservative and defensively minded approach coach Vera Pauw uses as a base, the team has some real quality.

Against the Scots, the Irish women had just 26 per cent of possession and managed a mere eleven shots on goal to the opposition’s 19. The 52 per cent passing accuracy achieved in the match compared to Scotland’s 78 per cent and the three yellow cards dished out to the eventual winners, perhaps encapsulate how the team will approach the tournament.

With Pauw preferring a 5-4-1 formation, there is no secret plan to be revealed in terms of how the republic will tackle the mighty challenge of the Matildas in front of a manic crowd at Stadium Australia.

The Australians enter the match confident and in full knowledge that they are the more polished squad. Reeling off impressive wins against top ten opposition such as France and Sweden in recent times has given them a potential edge that had been previously lacking under coach Tony Gustavsson.

The team appears well primed for the World Cup, something that could not be said just six months ago.

Katrina Gorry. (Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images )

How the match plays out

Ireland will sit deep and ask the Australians to come at them. There will be little space allowed in the local’s front third for passes to be slid in behind advancing defenders. In fact, we could be about to see one of the most compact defensive blocks ever applied in world football.

That approach will be an attempt to stifle the potent Australian attack that possesses speed on the flanks, with Hayley Raso, Ellie Carpenter and Cortnee Vine usually able to get in space behind and deliver balls from the by-line.

In the box, Sam Kerr and Caitlin Foord will feel as though they are standing in a crowded room, with the Irish knowing that a metre of space is enough for either to punish them in the wink of an eye. It could be an easy night at the office for the Australian back four, with possession and position almost certain to heavily favour the home side.

Keys for Republic of Ireland

Discipline
Should Republic of Ireland be able to settle into their defensive block and manage to reach half-time without having conceded, confidence will grow. The qualification group stage matches showed that Pauw has the team well drilled and a rogue defender pushing too high and allowing space in behind is unlikely.

The Counter
However, exploding on the counter where possession is won in the centre of the pitch will be the most likely source of a goal. Soaking up the Australian’s pressure for over 90 minutes is possible, yet hitting them with long wide balls to the wings once the ball is won will keep the Matildas honest and allow them a rest from the mountain of defence they will be forced to undertake.

Players
Katie McCabe is the best player in the Irish squad and alongside Denise O’Sullivan in midfield, will be crucial to any potential counter-attacking opportunities. Amber Barratt will be the target up front, however, it will be the back five that hold the key to success for Republic of Ireland.

Keys for the Matildas

Breaking down the block
Quite simply, the Matildas will throw a mountain of balls into the box and have plenty of half chances. A repeat of the performance against South Korea in the Asian Cup, where they were stunned by a brilliant late goal against the run of play, will concern Gustavsson.

On that day, the Matildas should have been well clear, yet played nervously and wasted moments that cannot be wasted at this World Cup. Much weight will fall on Katrina Gorry, Kyra Cooney-Cross, Mary Fowler and Raso, with the quality of their passing key to expertly unlocking what will be a firm and committed defence.

Mary Fowler. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Stage fright
Let’s not kid ourselves, this is the moment the Matildas have waited for and dreamt of, and the expectations and pressure levels will be high. There will be goose pimples as the women walk to the centre of the pitch, the anthem and crowd noise will be simply astonishing and the team must settle down to the task quickly.

A ticking second-half clock and a 0-0 score line could generate panic and desperation. Handling the Irish clinically and professionally in the first of three group stage matches should be the aim and cool heads will be required for that to occur.

Players
Should Kerr and Foord be left frustrated by poor service into the box, it will be the fault of wider players such as Raso and Catley, as well as a midfield needing to be industrious and patient whilst building attacks. Fowler looms as a potential game breaker, just as she was against the French last Friday night.

How it plays out

The fundamental question is whether the Matildas can keep their heads and find the net against a team that will build a wall in front of goal and demand plenty of talent to smash through it. Things will be tight early and a first half goal for Australia may well remove the pressure.

In what looks a potential banana skin game, the Matildas should have the quality to snatch a moment or two. A 2-0 win seems likely, with the Irish rarely threatening Mackenzie Arnold in the Australian goal mouth.