Six Points: The coach killer to end all coach killers, and why score review system will always be imperfect

If you’re a regular reader of this column, chances are you know who I support, and if you’re a footy fan of any kind you’ll know all about what happened at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon and why it’s the biggest story out of another bizarre, wild and wacky weekend of AFL action.

So let’s not waste any more time. Let’s dive in.

1. The coach killer to end all coach killers

I’ve defended Luke Beveridge in this column twice in the past month – I wrote the Western Bulldogs would be mad to sack him after a narrow loss to Sydney, while suggested just last week that while off-field change needed to be implemented, the coach should still remain.

But there are some losses that force a rethink of even the most ardent opinions, and the Bulldogs’ loss to West Coast on Sunday was all that and more. This was the coach killer to end all coach killers.

It’s impossible to put into words the magnitude of this loss – it’s as humiliating a defeat as I’ve ever experienced as a Bulldogs supporter, and as grim a day as I’ve had at the footy (a shout out to my mate Liam who endured my lengthy rants from the third level at Marvel Stadium all afternoon).

Against a team who actually would have benefitted more from a loss – the Eagles have now lost pick 1 and with it any chance of bargaining with a Victorian club for the rights to Harley Reid – and with finals hopes on the line but destiny still in their own hands, the Dogs were outrun, outhunted, outworked and thoroughly outplayed by a team who at times this year, including just last week, have been historically bad.

Full credit to the Eagles for showing how few teams in the competition can rock up in this league, no matter how lowly the opposition, and expect a Sunday stroll. From the very first bounce, they showed a level of intensity that the Dogs wouldn’t or couldn’t match, and the result was a win that every supporter who has endured a tough last two years can feel immense pride in.

Now that that’s out of the way, back to the Dogs. There are several players in the 22 that took to Marvel Stadium that a serious footy team would not be playing – it baffles me how the Dogs continue to run with some of the VFL-standard plodders that regularly get a game instead of at least having a look at last year’s draftees, Jedd Busslinger the most notable.

But it’s not just about team selection – the Dogs’ defensive structure was an utter shambles on Sunday, with the Eagles able to generate shots almost at will – while without Tom Liberatore, the midfield continued its trend of being paper-thin when the opposition has their tail up. I lost count of the amount of times Tim Kelly or Elliot Yeo sprinted from a centre bounce with not a Bulldog anywhere near them, took a bounce and aimed a pass under no pressure to a leading forward.

The only reason this game was even close was because the Eagles repeatedly produced some truly hilarious howlers to gift the Bulldogs goals. This was a performance every bit as abysmal as Essendon’s 126-point loss to GWS the day before, and it’s not an exaggeration to say a similar hiding would have been handed to the Dogs if they were playing anyone remotely decent.

Most damning of all? Thanks mainly to Marcus Bontempelli, the Dogs actually clawed their way in front at three-quarter time, and seemed to have taken control of the game. To have all that momentum against a side which was a player down on the bench for the entire last quarter, and meekly surrender it against a team which simply wanted a win more, is inexcusable.

All that makes it the sort of loss where a coach becomes untenable. Beveridge has been a lightning rod for criticism over the last 18 months, and this week it will be well deserved. His seat is now the hottest in footy – and it’s got to the point where something has to give or the club won’t stand for anything.

I will say this: with one round to go for the season and the Dogs still a mathematical chance of finals, it would be silly to sack Beveridge now – not least because I have zero confidence in any of the assistant coaches being viable caretakers.

This is it, though – the last chance saloon. If Beveridge can somehow inspire a win over Geelong in Geelong, and GWS lose to Carlton, then there will be a stay of execution, and he’ll have saved himself. More importantly, it would prove that he still has the playing group, because after what happened against the Eagles I’m beginning to doubt that.

I wrote earlier in the year, after the Dogs started 0-2 and in dire straits, that Bevo had six weeks to save himself. It’s now one game, and the stakes should be, must be, win or pack your bags.

Luke Beveridge. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

2. No amount of technology can make score reviews work like we want them to

I’ve already said my piece on why the goal umpire’s decision to rule THAT Ben Keays snap had hit the post in the dying seconds of Adelaide’s season-ending loss to Sydney was the wrong one.

But I think it’s also important to get a few things straight about the score review process and how we want it to work, given as much of the criticism has been directed at the technology and process currently in operation as the unfortunate human error that caused it.

I wrote something similar last week after the ARC was unable to overrule the on-field goal umpire’s call that Caleb Marchbank had touched Christian Petracca’s shot for the winner in Carlton’s win over Melbourne – it just so happens that two critical, game-deciding moments have been left up to an imperfect system and a process that still has the capacity for human error to disrupt it.

The problem is that our game is bloody complicated, in everything from adjudication of high tackle free kicks to how you actually go about scoring goals and behinds. Ours is the only sport on the planet where it matters if the ball takes a sliver of the post on its way through the goals, or if the opposition gets the barest fingernail on the footy before it crosses the line.

It doesn’t matter in round-ball football whether the goalkeeper parries the ball in; nor in rugby league, when a player takes a conversion or penalty, is it of any consequence whether the ball goes through off the uprights. The Wests Tigers’ Api Koroisau had a game-winning kick bounce through via the crossbar only on Saturday.

Sure, the AFL could invest in the highest-tech cameras, a state-of-the-art sound system and spend millions of dollars in giving the clearest possible picture of what happened in every controversial goal-line incident.

And it would all be meaningless in cases like Saturday night at the Adelaide Oval anyway, because unless we want every single shot at goal to be sent upstairs, the odd mistake is going to happen. The technology was sufficient for us to know, within seconds of seeing replays, that Keays’ kick had obviously missed the post – this is a case of a human failing, and not of one of the available tools.

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This is the first time I can recall since 2019, when the league increased the powers of the score review after a series of goals were awarded despite being clearly touched off the boot, that a goal umpire hasn’t sent a decision upstairs that would have been overturned. This simply doesn’t happen often, and in criticising this enormous blunder it fails to recognise that 99.9 per cent of score reviews have a neutral or successful outcome, which makes it a far better system than having no method of double-checking tight calls.

You know what is probably going to happen now? The AFL will send a memo to the umpiring department that any line-ball call, regardless of whether there is doubt over it, needs to be sent upstairs, to prevent catastrophes like Saturday night’s. I’m fully expecting, for the final round of the season and the finals, to see far more score reviews than we’re seeing now, with gun-shy goal umps mandated by the league to not trust their own judgement in case it’s askew.

You might think this is a solution, especially if you’re an Adelaide supporter, but I think if that does eventuate we’ll all be whingeing about a two-minute delay every ten minutes to check a call that wasn’t actually that close at all.

The truth is this: the complexities of our game are so innate and so extreme that no amount of technology, or thorough checks, are going to make it foolproof.

Mistakes are inevitable – it’s just unfortunate that such a costly, season-shaping howler was made, especially coming hot off the heels of another contentious but ultimately correct call at an equally crucial time just seven days earlier.

Ben Keays and Izak Rankine celebrate what they thought was a goal – but had hit the post. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

3. Giving the Saints some overdue praise

Such was the drama that took place at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday night that what was simultaneously going on at Marvel Stadium has largely flown under the radar.

During a round in which a swathe of teams with their seasons at stake fluffed their lines, ranging in extremes from the near-miss of the Crows to Essendon’s Giants Stadium horror show, St Kilda were nothing short of magnificent.

I’d mount an argument that, given the stakes, the recent criticisms of the Saints and the fact they headed into their clash with Geelong as underdogs, this is their finest home-and-away win in at least a decade. Faced with oblivion in the event of a loss, given their task next week against Brisbane at the Gabba is the toughest in footy at the moment, the Saints played what is surely Ross Lyon’s idea of a perfect match.

They dominated possession with calm, clinical ball movement, taking 151 marks and winning the disposal count by 78 to deny the Cats any time with the footy. They were measured, but also smart enough to recognise openings when it was time to attack with gusto; for the first time since the opening rounds, they looked properly damaging.

Their inaccuracy kept the Cats in the game until halfway through the last quarter, but in the cold light of day a 33-point margin flatters the reigning premiers; this had the look of a 10-goal hiding.

I’ve written plenty about the Saints in this column over the last month and a half, mostly questioning how on earth they were holding onto a top-eight spot and expressing my lament that a certain other team that rhymes with ‘Bullfrogs’ couldn’t display the same ability to win games they should, however tough the slog, however thrilling the finish.

The Saints have been remarkable defensively all year, and I think we’ve taken Lyon and his style for granted for too long to fully appreciate it – but they’re once again top of the pops when it comes to scores against, though whether they’ll keep that rating given the high-scoring Lions are next might be tough.

It’s not just the fact they don’t let you score – at their best, they suffocate teams. The Cats made mistake after mistake in the first half in particular under a wave of unrelenting pressure wherever they turned, and the difference in intent when the Saints regained possession couldn’t have been more stark.

This has been a sneakily excellent month from St Kilda: they smashed Hawthorn to smithereens in the first quarter and then held their nerve against a comeback, a win that looks all the stronger now given the Hawks’ form since that day; while also putting Richmond and Geelong outfits with their seasons on the line to the sword, with their one loss a narrow one to a rampant Carlton that came after a strong first half.

Their strong start to the season has left them in control of their fate for the entirety of this run home, and while most of us have expected to drop their bundle, they simply haven’t. Now finals is certain, thanks to the Bulldogs’ capitulation, and you just can’t discount them from winning a game or two, even if they’re still about as unlikely as any team in the eight to win it all.

Respect.

4. Why the Hinkley hate?

I’ve got a question for all the Port Adelaide supporters who reacted to Ken Hinkley’s mid-week contract extension with a mix of scepticism and outrage: what on earth more did you want him to do?

The Power have made it clear all year that they’d have a decision on Hinkley’s future by August; indeed, given their current top-four finish and chance, however unlikely now, at a home qualifying final, a two-year extension is about as miserly as they could have been. And fair enough, too – Hinkley now has some security, and the club can avoid a massive, West Coast-Adam Simpson-esque payout if things turn pear-shaped sometime in the next 24 months.

All the same, I’ve been bewildered by so much of the negativity directed the Power’s way by their own supporter base this season; it’s one thing to have high standards, and quite another to demand a level of excellence that simply can’t be achieved in the cutthroat, remarkably even playing field that is the AFL.

Put it this way: if your motto is ‘We Exist to Win Premierships’, then you are going to be disappointed, on average, 94.44 per cent of time. If you view any season, however many wins, however deep a September run, as a failure if it doesn’t bring the ultimate prize, then you’re going to have a miserable time and I’d suggest heading over to the Premier League and getting a Manchester City membership.

The statistic thrown around by Hinkley’s detractors this week is that 15 of the 18 premiership coaches in the AFL era won their maiden flag within five years of being appointed, with Mark Thompson and Damien Hardwick’s eight-year barren runs the longest.

Yes, Hinkley has been at the Power for a decade without a premiership – but to suggest that means he’s incapable of winning one later is shifting the goalposts. These records are meant to be broken and extended – and in the case of Thompson and Hardwick, their clubs defied growing supporter angst and on-field struggles, backed their men in, and the result was a dynasty. Sound familiar?

More to the point, coaches generally only get sacked when their teams bottom out. In Hinkley’s soon-to-be 11 complete seasons, the Power have never failed to achieve double-figure wins, and only twice, in 2016 and 2022, have they had more defeats than victories. In both, their percentage was well over 100.

Hinkley has also presided over three preliminary finals, two of them decided by a goal or less, plus a 2013 semi-final that was also a relatively close-run thing and a 2017 elimination final where Luke Shuey got them with a kick after the siren in extra time.

You could argue that that string of close defeats is a coach problem and that Hinkley is incapable of delivering in the big moments, but me, I subscribe to the theory that games decided by under a goal are essentially a lottery – so it’s bad luck as much as anything else, plus the fact they had to face two dynasties in Hawthorn and Richmond in those two close prelims.

Hinkley right now, amidst all the uncertainty over his future, has powered the Power (pardon the pun) to a top-four finish in which they are as good a chance as anyone at claiming premiership glory. He’s done it while also fully transitioning the midfield from Ollie Wines and Travis Boak to Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis, which will probably be the most formidable centre square combination for the next decade.

To not re-sign Hinkley, or even to go back on their word and wait until the end of finals, is not only an unrealistic expectation, but also unfair not only on the coach, but a group of players who clearly think the world of him.

So take this with the grain of salt that it deserves from this supporter of a club with two premierships in nearly 100 VFL/AFL seasons… but a coach doesn’t have to win flags to be a good one, nor is a season without victory on the last day in September a failure in and of itself.

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

5. Did anyone actually expect the Bombers to be good?

It’s never good when your team loses by 126 points – let alone when it happens in a game on which their season is riding.

So the reaction of long-suffering Essendon supporters to their utterly insipid performance in a virtual elimination final against GWS is entirely understandable. Hey, my team lost by seven points and it’s sent me into a state of despair.

All the same, I don’t think one loss, nor even the Bombers’ rapid fade-out at the end of this season, takes away from what has been an above-average first year in charge from Brad Scott.

The Dons were a bottom-four favourite in the pre-season, so to be in the finals race until the second-last round, with a few excellent wins and some more than honourable losses thrown in, is commendable.

There won’t be finals this year, but there was the end of their near decade-long Dreamtime at the ‘G drought, and ten more wins just like it, which is honestly almost double what I thought the Bombers would get at the start of the season.

Yes, there are issues with their game plan, weaknesses in their list, and there’s a lot of work to be done on fitness before Essendon can be a premiership contender. All the same, this is only a failed year if you expected the Bombers to be any better, and I don’t think many of us can say that.

No doubt I got ahead of myself a month and a half ago when I claimed the Bombers could (though thankfully, not would) win the premiership – I got sucked into their good form and strong at the time structure and thought they could do damage in finals. As a result, I look a bit silly, given how quickly after the win over Adelaide that prompted that take the Bombers fell off the wagon completely.

A triple-figure loss is an abysmal way to end a season of promise, and must be especially galling considering the trajectory Carlton have been on since the day the Bombers toppled them back in June.

But I can’t get behind the calls to completely gut the list, or dump the assistants, or even sack Scott himself. This season has been a solid B-: not as good as they’d have hoped, but more than creditable for a club that loves nothing more than to take shortcuts where patience is required.

6. Legends’ farewells sum up Tiger resurgence

In this writer’s opinion, the greatest sign of a player’s legacy isn’t the amount of premierships they’ve won, or individual accolades they’ve collected. It’s whether or not the club has, during their career, become better for your presence.

And in the AFL era, I’m not sure two players have contributed more in this regard than Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt.

Riewoldt’s second game at the MCG came in Round 16, 2007 (his first was that year’s Dreamtime at the ‘G, which I’m setting aside as a marquee game). The Tigers, on their way to a wooden spoon, were flogged by 55 points, and just 22,395 spectators rocked up.

Cotchin’s came a little under 12 months later, in sodden conditions against a Geelong outfit at the peak of their powers. Again, the crowd was sparse – 37,275 fans attended.

In both those years, Richmond’s membership count sat at just over 30,000 – in 2008, they even sat below North Melbourne. Yes, really, look it up.

Their arrivals coincided with some of the darkest years at Tigerland in their three decades in the wilderness. Finishes near the bottom were commonplace, the club was mired in millions of dollars of debt, it had been seven years since their last finals appearance, and the one beacon of hope for many Tigers fans during the previous bleak period, Matthew Richardson, was about to bow out. Little wonder attendances were so low.

Fast forward to the MCG on Saturday afternoon against said Kangaroos, and the impact of Cotchin and Riewoldt’s time at Punt Road was laid bare. Not in the three premiership cups sat up in a corporate box, but in the fact that, for a dead-rubber game coming at the end of a tough season for the Tiger army, 59,555 people showed up to pay their last respects.

Along with Dustin Martin, that pair of champions have done more than anyone to transform Richmond from the butt of every joke in the AFL, into a powerhouse on and off the field and a club to be respected, if maybe not feared for the last few years.

Three premierships, the shattering of membership records – it was they, and not Collingwood or West Coast, who first broke the 100,000 membership glass ceiling, a small matter of triple their 2008 tally – and more individual highlights than can be put into words are the highlights, but by no means the sum, of their achievements.

Cotchin has grown from supremely talented young midfield star and Brownlow Medallist* into the most uncompromising, ruthless and detested captain this side of Joel Selwood. Like Selwood, he’s been a hard bastard and copped flak for stepping over the line on more than one occasion, but without the nasty streak he developed almost mid-career, would the Tigers have lifted like they did in 2017 and beyond?

I maintain that Riewoldt, an unflappable Tassie boy with a country drawl and a touch of 1980s-style footy showmanship, would have been as revered and beloved by all teams on an equal level to Richardson had he endured a similar lack of on-field success. As it has turned out, the flags have brought with them a touch of the old tall poppy syndrome – he’s a show pony, he dives for free kicks, the usual drill.

Together, they’ve embodied the Tigers for more than a decade, through times thin and thick and back to thin again. They awoke a sleeping giant, and revitalised a powerhouse.

They have made their club infinitely better for their presence; there can be no higher praise.

Random thoughts

– Great to see how Jesse Hogan has turned his career – and life – around since moving to Sydney. As dominant a key forward performance as you’ll see on Saturday.

– He was no Jai Newcombe, but there was plenty to like about Henry Hustwaite for the Hawks. That won’t be his last game.

– Simon Goodwin’s whack at Finn Maginness post-game was certainly something – but keeping Clayton Oliver to 14 touches is a huge win regardless of the result.

– Gold from Adam Simpson.

– I don’t think Bradley Hill has had a better game as a Saint than Saturday night. Enormous when it mattered.

– George Hewett’s form gives the Blues a real conundrum with Sam Walsh and Adam Cerra soon to return.