South Sydney’s late-season slump has set up what will be a local derby bigger blockbuster than usual in Round 27 with the Rabbitohs and Roosters set to fight out a winner takes all clash for the final playoff spot.
The Bunnies’ loss to in Newcastle and Canberra’s win over Canterbury on Sunday means the Knights and Raiders have all but sealed their playoff spot.
Newcastle need to win at home this Sunday against Cronulla or on the road to the Dragons in the final round while the Raiders are also still vulnerable due to their poor for-and-against record but can seal a post-season berth by avoiding defeat against Brisbane and the Sharks over the closing fortnight.
The Roosters, who have the last-placed Tigers before their Souths showdown at Accor Stadium, need the Cowboys to slip up against the Dolphins or Panthers to sneak into eighth.
If you want to be charitable, 11th-placed Parramatta are still a remote chance of qualifying – for that to eventuate, they’d have to upset the Panthers in Penrith on Thursday before the Eels have the bye in the final round to finish on 30. Then they’d need the Roosters (who have an inferior for-and-against differential) to lose to the Tigers then beat the Rabbitohs and the Cowboys to lose twice to the Dolphins and Penrith (or for the Eels to leapfrog them on differential if North Queensland win one of their two).
Team by team, here’s how each team is shaping up heading into the final rounds of the regular season.
The run home for each team
1. Penrith (40 points, 17-5 record, +315 differential)
Run home: Eels (home), Cowboys (home).
Predicted finish: Although he insisted the three players who sat out the win over Gold Coast all had injuries, it appears Ivan Cleary is doing the old Australian cricket team rotation policy in the final rounds instead of giving his entire side a break in the last match before the playoffs like last year. The minor premiership is set to go down to the wire unless the Broncos slip up in Canberra so that’s bad news for the Cowboys in their bid to land eighth spot.
2. Brisbane (40 points, 17-5 record, +213 differential)
Run home: Raiders (away), Storm (home).
Predicted finish: Getting Adam Reynolds fully fit for the finals should be Brisbane’s No.1 priority over the next fortnight. He’s already been ruled out of the trip to Canberra due to his calf strain and the Broncos should still have enough firepower to win one of their last two games to ensure they retain second spot.
(Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
3. Warriors (36 points, 15-7 record, +136 differential)
Run home: Dragons (home), Dolphins (away).
Predicted finish: The door is ever so slightly ajar for the Warriors to complete an improbable rise into second due to Reynolds’ injury meaning Brisbane are no certainties to win both their games. The Warriors would still need to rack up big scores on the Dragons and Dolphins so it’s not quite Lloyd Christmas “you’re saying there’s a chance” level optimism but it’s close.
4. Storm (34 points, 14-8 record, +137 differential)
Run home: Titans (home), Broncos (away).
Predicted finish: They’ll account for the Titans then the Broncos game will be a must-win if the Sharks are still nipping at their heels as they have a similar points differential. The Storm need Ryan Papenhuyzen as a bench weapon at the least to make a mark in the finals.
5. Cronulla (32 points, 13-9 record, +130 differential)
Run home: Knights (away), Raiders (home).
Predicted finish: Thoroughly deserved their win in the tropics over the Cowboys and will not be the finals fodder everyone was expecting even though true title contention still looks a bridge too far. Sunday’s trip to Newcastle is massive – if they win, fourth spot is still a chance but a loss could send them to seventh and facing a sudden-death road scenario in week one of the finals.
6. Canberra (32 points, 13-9 record, -108 differential)
Run home: Broncos (home), Sharks (away).
Predicted finish: Did enough to beat the Bulldogs and that has been Canberra’s modus operandi all season – putting away the dud teams and scoring enough wins over the contenders to remain in the playoff race. They’re going to be underdogs in both their remaining matches and if they lose them and the Cowboys and Roosters or Rabbitohs win out, then the Raiders could still miss the eight due to their woeful differential.
7. Newcastle (31 points, 12-1-9 record, +129 differential)
Run home: Sharks (home), Dragons (away).
Predicted finish: You don’t win seven in a row unless you are doing plenty right and the Knights silenced any remaining doubters with their disposal of Souths even without Jackson Hastings. If they can continue their roll against the Sharks and Dragons, fifth spot is a distinct possibility for a team that was potentially punting their coach mid-season.
8. South Sydney (28 points, 12-11 record, +73 differential)
Run home: bye, Roosters (home).
Predicted finish: They don’t particularly deserve to make the finals. Everyone has been waiting for them to click and at some point in time you’ve got to say it’s not going to happen.
9. North Queensland (28 points, 11-11 record, +12 differential)
Run home: Dolphins (away), Panthers (away).
Predicted finish: Another side that has flattered to deceive. They could and probably should be in the top eight but their form does not warrant it and even if they put away the Dolphins this week, they’re unlikely to win in Penrith to finish the season even if the Panthers are resting stars.
10. Roosters (28 points, 11-11 record, -62 differential)
Run home: Tigers (home), Rabbitohs (home).
Predicted finish: Of the fringe top-eight contenders this is the team that has at least shown some fight despite ongoing injury problems. They’ll be too strong and motivated for the Tigers this week and they would be heavy favourites to rack up another W against Souths next week. Even if they get knocked out of the finals in week one, Roosters fans will consider it a good year if they deny the Rabbitohs a playoff spot.
(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
11. Parramatta (26 points, 11-12 record, -1 differential)
Run home: Panthers (away), bye.
Predicted finish: The season can’t end early enough for the Eels and at least it will a week earlier than everyone else due to their bye next round. They have the slightest of chances of sneaking in but it would need a miracle that even Parramatta Jesus couldn’t muster.
12. Manly (25 points, 9-1-12 record, -54 differential)
Run home: Bulldogs (away), Tigers (home).
Predicted finish: Have shown some spirit and were a little unlucky to lose in Auckland to the Warriors but this season has shown they don’t have the roster depth to be legitimate contenders. Unfortunately, 2024 will also hinge on Tom Trbojevic’s fragile availability.
13. Gold Coast (22 points, 8-14 record, -109 differential)
Run home: Storm (away), Bulldogs (home).
Predicted finish: Never has a team lost by 26 and deserved such a margin less. The Titans competed with the Panthers and outplayed them for long stretches on Saturday before the premiers blew out the final scoreline. They won’t beat the Storm but they should mail the Dogs to finish 2023.
14. Dolphins (22 points, 8-14 record, -111 differential)
Run home: Cowboys (home), Warriors (home).
Predicted finish: Another team that is limping to the finish. The hype around their strong start to the year seems like a long time ago – Wayne Bennett is giving a few prospects a run in the closing rounds to see if they’re worth investing in next year.
15. Canterbury (20 points, 7-15 record, -309 differential)
Run home: Sea Eagles (home), Titans (away).
Predicted finish: They competed with the Raiders in Canberra but if that’s the best thing that you can say about the Bulldogs for at least a month, that tells you all you need to know. Hard to see them winning again even though they’re facing fellow also-rans in the final fortnight.
16. St George Illawarra (16 points, 5-18 record, -167 differential)
Run home: Warriors (away), Knights (home).
Predicted finish: Four weeks in a row they’ve given teams higher up the ladder a run for their money, yet ultimately they’ve come up short. Where was this spirit earlier in the year when it mattered?
17. Wests Tigers (14 points, 4-18 record, -224 differential)
Run home: Roosters (away), Sea Eagles (away).
Predicted finish: The dream of avoiding a second straight spoon is still alive but it will likely evaporate at the hands of the Roosters this weekend. At least they haven’t been the worst in terms of for-and-against this year with Canterbury runaway “winners” in that category.
The Mexican
Roar Rookie
I think you may have the same supplier as the sport writers from Fox Sports old boy :shocked: :happy: :stoked: :laughing:
The Barry
Roar Guru
Yeah, I think realistically 32 will be the minimum I just mucked around with the ladder predictor… if the Eels beat the Panthers by 40, the Tigers beat the Roosters and then next week the Roosters beat Souths by 40 - plus the Cowboys lose at least one versus either Dolphins and Panthers, then the Eels can sneak in with 30 points. So I guess if anyone wants to call that a chance, then technically they are although I agree with you… it takes some serious class a hallucinogens to see that happening :laughing: :laughing: It’s really weird but with the Cowboys losing last week, the Raiders are more likely than Souths or Easts to make the eight. Raiders are already on 32. Souths and Easts are on 28. Assuming Easts beat Tigers this week, they will both be on 30 and playing in Round 27. The winner gets to 32 and jumps into 7th, loser stays on 30 and 9th, but the Raiders stay 8th, regardless of their for and against, even if they lose both their games The only way the Raiders miss out is if the Cowboys beat the Dolphins and Panthers AND the Raiders lose to the Broncos and Sharks… even then they could still make it if the Tigers beat the Roosters and the Roosters beat Souths Phew… I feel like I’ve already had the class A’s after that… :laughing: :laughing:
The Mexican
Roar Rookie
I think the only 2 teams with a mathematical possibility of making the eight will be the Roosters and Rabbitohs, the cowboys won't get there, the magic number I think is 32 points. I read a foxsports report that had the Eels with a mathematical chance, I don't know what illegal substances those reporters are on but Parra can only get to 30 points, which is simply not enough to make the 8, the only team in danger of missing the eight is Canberra due to their terrible differential, you can put a line through the other teams outside the 8
criag
Roar Rookie
No guarantees in football. Not only do the Roosters have to win two in a row, but they are relying on the Cowboys to drop one. Dolphins game for them is a 50-50, and last year Penrith rested a bunch of player for the last round. I expect to be reaching for a gin and tonic at the end of the Souths game.
Maxtruck
Roar Rookie
"Roosters fans must be positively salivating at the chance of leapfrogging Souths" ??? They were 2nd fav for the premierships this year, fans should be bitterly disappointed the the Roosters this year.
Maxtruck
Roar Rookie
Ponga flying but Siafiti & Thompson dominated the Souths forwards.
csps
Roar Rookie
Well rested Bunnies and motivated Blake Taaffe will take the Roosters down to be qualified for the final 8.
NQR
Roar Rookie
Come on Barry the Cowboys have the wood on the Panthers. LOL they have just been foxing getting ready for the traditional charge down the outside ( Chautauqua style)
The Barry
Roar Guru
Do you think they will? They look like they’re doing it differently this year, resting 2-3 at a time instead of most of the squad at once
Horses for Courses
Roar Rookie
Panthers are more beatable this year than the last two years. Their defence is elite but their attack relies heavily on outlasting their opponent rather than shear brilliance. They are definitely favourites but I could absolutely see them losing to a team attacking at a high level.
Footy Franks
Roar Rookie
Let’s face it no one can beat the Panthers. Go the Chooks, should smash the Rabbits to sneak ito the 8
Paul Suttor
Expert
u make a good point - team that wears green, starts with R
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Agreed, except with wooden spoon
Panthers
Roar Rookie
Hey Paul. If the ‘Raiders’ win out , I’m pretty sure they’ll make the 8.
Panthers
Roar Rookie
True. Penrith could rest their whole team for the game against the Cowboys. They can’t finish worse than second.
dogs
Roar Rookie
I think big risk they get ahead of themselves. Not saying tigers will win, but expect them to make it close and give the roosters a fright before pulling away in the last 15-20 (like the good teams have been doing recently).
The Barry
Roar Guru
Yep I have the Raiders losing to the Broncos (H) and Sharks (A). So they finish on 32 points Souths have a bye and I’ve got them losing to the Roosters. I have the Roosters beating the Tigers this week I have the Cowboys beating the Dolphins (A) but losing to the Panthers (A) That’s obviously a lot of results to get right, but if it goes down that way, Roosters finish 7th (on 32), Raiders 8th (32), Souths 9th (30) and Cowboys 10th (30) If Souths beat the Roosters they finish 7th, Raiders 8th and the Roosters 9th By my calcs the only way the Raiders miss the eight, is if the Cowboys beat the Panthers in Round 27… and the Raiders are in if they win either of their remaining games
Andrew01
Roar Rookie
At least from a Broncos perspective players like Walsh, Haas, Carrigan, Cobbo, etc. have been in the Origin setting which should help them a little bit in terms of playing do or die in front of a full house style games. I don't think it is the same, but i am informed that some people place a lot of import on Origin. :happy:
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Hi Baz. Have done the old NRL ladder predictor and I have the Roosters coming 7th if they win both their remaining games and the Raiders coming 8th if they lose to both the Broncos and Sharks. But if the Raiders can knock off the Sharks away at Shark Park in the final game of the minor round there is a chance the Raiders will finish 6th and host a rematch against the Sharks in the first week of the finals at home. And the Roosters will finish 8th. Thought the game between the Raiders and Dogs was a pretty decent contest yesterday afternoon. Lots of negative comments about the Raiders being pretty unconvincing but the Dogs showed something. It was a pretty good game of footy.
Panthers
Roar Rookie
Are you sure about the Raiders? Poor differential & two tough games. It’s very possible for them to lose to the Broncos at home & the Sharks away. You’d have to think that Newcastle most likely beats St.George, which could leapfrog them over the Raiders. If they don’t beat Cronulla? Then it comes down to any other side that could get to 32 points. Which really still gives South’s, Cowboys & Roosters a shot. It’s all very interesting..