Forget the ladder - the Lions have never been further away from a flag

A top-two finish means nothing for Brisbane unless they change the way they play heading into September.

This is a team celebrated as nearly unstoppable at home and the working idea seems to be that securing the home qualifying final this weekend is a one-way ticket to the Grand Final.

That’s simply just not the case.

It’s not that the Lions are a bad team: they’re really pretty good. In a power rankings scenario, they’d be fourth in the competition – I’ve never suggested otherwise.

It’s impossible though, to watch them play and come away from any game with full belief that this is a team worthy of being named premier, or that they can navigate their way through September.

Lachie Neale. (Photo by Chris Hyde/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Two weeks ago, Melbourne was the clear dark horse and still are, despite a loss to Carlton which saw people move past them quickly. Port Adelaide didn’t lose a game for three months, then lost a couple in a row as absences hit hard and just like that – off the radar.

Brisbane’s really stumbled its way into the second spot on the ladder and if somehow this team was to find itself as the minor premier against all odds, it’ll be the greatest trick ever pulled in the AFL.

Fresh off a win against the Magpies, it was the same story as always. The Lions look so dangerous and powerful offensively when they control the pace of the game and move the ball through the middle. They really took control in the last quarter and a half of the game, putting Collingwood to bed in a meaningful way.

Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron have combined for 100 goals with a game to play in the regular season, Eric Hipwood leads the team for marks inside 50, Cam Rayner looks like the finals x-factor and the likes of Lincoln McCarthy and Zac Bailey are super dangerous when pushing inside 50.

This has been the case for the better part of four seasons now.

It’s the same in the midfield, Lachie Neale is a special player, Josh Dunkley is hungry for the contest and fumbly going for marks, and Hugh McCluggage has finally enjoyed excellent form back in the centre square. Known commodities, doing what we’ve seen them do for a while now.

Footy’s a two-way game. As great as it was to see the Lions put 19 goals against the undermanned Magpies, they also conceded 100 against that same team.

That win won’t mask the last six weeks either, even though the Lions are apparently seen as flag favourites in some circles.

They were extremely lucky to beat Adelaide, comprehensively outplayed for large parts of the game at home. They were entirely underwhelming in the win against Fremantle, where the Dockers forced them to play outside rather than through the middle, holding on for a narrow victory in Perth.

Brisbane was smashed by a Gold Coast team under extreme pressure who were far more ruthless, creating an effective defensive line to force the Lions to kick high and long.

Against the Cats, they controlled the game but never created the separation that an ‘offensive powerhouse’ should really be able to. At no point in that game did they fall behind, yet at no point did they seem like definitive victors.

Then there was that Round 18 game against Melbourne. Yeah, you know that one, nearly five goals up and about to break the MCG hoodoo when they were torn apart defensively and obliterated by sheer weight of numbers and a high defensive line.

Cam Rayner. (Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Defensive issues have been the underlying issue under the reign of Chris Fagan since the Lions became good and their way of solving the problems is seemingly to outscore the opposition, not restrict.

Is this where we dust off the old adage that defence wins finals?

And you know what? This isn’t a personnel issue defensively either.

Jack Payne has been excellent and for my money, one of the team’s best players this season. His breakout season has meant Harris Andrews takes a secondary forward, which is easier for him to defend, while really excelling as an interceptor. Ryan Lester’s been fantastic too, while the rest of the defenders individually have been fine too.

The midfield is great too. A little less so without Will Ashcroft, but still full of great names. They actually run back defensively, trying to help out their backline.

They’ve got wingers that push back – guys like Jarrod Berry, Darcy Wilmot, Jaspa Fletcher when he gets a chance, a bit of Cal Ah Chee and Keidean Coleman, who rotates with Wilmot sometimes.

But boy, when the opposition starts to get on top, even the keenest of statisticians who hate that m-word start to believe that momentum is a real thing. For having so many players that are so adept in contested situations, no team quite falls apart like the Lions. Teams can get on a roll and with repeated inside 50s, you can grind Brisbane into the ground.

In the last six rounds, it has happened in almost every game. There seems to be some sort of disconnect when the Lions try to defend as a group in pack situations, which is the opposite of the problems other teams face.

There are almost too many guys wanting to either intercept, or read the ball off the pack. They’re too aggressive, too attack-minded and thinking about the next foray forward. It’s why individually, they’re impressive, but when Max Gawn, Jordan Dawson, Luke Ryan and Wil Powell are lined up on the attacking side of the wing and winning the ball back, launching it inside 50 repeatedly, Brisbane doesn’t know what to do.

They don’t get credit for holding on in games that should’ve been handled far more easily, particularly in those ones against teams who aren’t playing finals.

This season, they’ve conceded the fewest inside 50s per game and are conceding a score 42.9 per cent of the time, which is around were most decent teams are.

But over the last six rounds, that’s up to conceding a score 45.2 per cent of the time. For reference, only North Melbourne and West Coast concede at a higher rate this season.

Jarrod Berry. (Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Brisbane’s issue has always been coaching related more than personnel, the tactical emphasis on attack and the disregard for proper zonal defending means that the Lions have two modes – attack, or park the bus.

They win by slender margins not because they’ve fought out a hard victory, but because they shut up shop and chip the ball around.

A six-week period at the end of the season to back up the warning signs through the first half of the season is enough of a sample size to suggest this just isn’t a team that can be successful.

On top of that, the free ride to a Grand Final isn’t such a gimme when the Lions are two wins and four losses at the Gabba in finals since 2019.

They’re undefeated there in 10 games this season heading into the contest against the Saints, but have only played three teams playing finals – the most recent was against the Swans when they were a rabble in Round 14, otherwise the other two contests were against the Demons and Magpies in Rounds two and four, hardly any inspiration to draw from.

Successful teams have ebbs and flows throughout an AFL season. Rarely does it go right from start to finish.

They all have multiple ways to play, multiple styles to try in different situations. We’ve seen Collingwood, Port Adelaide and Melbourne try different things throughout 2023 to varying levels of success, but it holds them in good stead heading into September.

The Lions have been playing the same way for years now, so expecting any wild changes is foolish.

This version of the Brisbane Lions may have their highest finish on the ladder since 2020, but they’re as far away from a flag as they’ve been in recent times.