ANALYSIS: The worst collapse ever? Souths miss finals as Walker powers Chooks to famous win

The Roosters have pulled off the near-impossible, giving themselves every chance of making the finals in 2023 by defeating South Sydney at Accor Stadium. 

Even if they don’t make it, they will take a great amount of pleasure in having ended the season of their biggest rivals, who are out despite leading the competition in May. It is one of the all-time great fadeouts from a Souths side that will now begin tearing themselves apart, if that hasn’t started already.

The Chooks were 14th after Round 22, but have won five straight since to make the eight on the final weekend – if one of the Cowboys or Canberra fail to win. It’s not quite done, but it’s nearly done – and even if they miss out, it will feel like a season salvaged regardless.

None of the victories will feel sweeter than this, where they withstood huge amounts of pressure to dump South Sydney out on their own turf.

It was 26-12 in the end, with Sam Walker scoring late on to underline a superb performance both with the ball and, crucially, without. 

The halfback, who was ditched earlier in the year and then missed months with injury, has long been criticised for his defence but made 20 tackles without a miss. With his Achilles heel removed, his attack flourished.

For the Roosters, it was the opposite. Their defence has largely been decent all year, but their attack dreadful. They were under the pump for long periods tonight, but survived and, thanks to Walker and Luke Keary, were good enough to capitalise.

“It was do-or-die,” said Trent Robinson. “To execute a game plan under those conditions takes a really clear team and a really focussed team.

“I felt like we did that. We’ve been building defensive resilience throughout the year and it’s really come on in that last couple of months. You can see that we’ve got a bit of backbone and the attack’s come off the back of it as well. 

“The way we’ve started setting up the game is really good and to be able to continue that tonight in those circumstances was really positive.”

Souths were top going into Round 12, but have plummeted and now miss the finals for the first time since 2017.

“It’s about getting around each other and feeling the hurt,” said Jason Demetriou. “We can’t hide from it. I can’t hide from it. What we can do now is take our lessons and spend. a big amount of time reviewing the season.

“I’ve got to hold my hands up there, I’m the head coach, it’s on me to make sure we’re better. I could sit here and make excuses but it hurts. It’s a tough lesson to learn but I’ll learn it.

“We’ll learn from what this season’s played out. There’s a half a season and a preseason of a lot of good stuff, a lot that we can take positives out of, but there’s some real strong lessons too to be learned under pressure and how we handle that.

“There’s a lot of little things, lots of learnings that we can take and that starts with me.”

They missed Latrell Mitchell badly, with a noted spark missing from their backline, and struggled to put on enough attack despite huge advantages in possession and position. 

The Bunnies’ fullback woes got even worse early on, with replacement Blake Taaffe failing a HIA in the first half, forcing a reshuffle that limited their attacking threat. By the end, they had Cameron Murray in the centres after Michael Chee Kam also departed injured.

Demetriou has endured a lot in the last few weeks, with the club dominating the headlines for off-field infighting. Now, he has months to stew over everything that has happened, and how his side went so astray.

A slow burner

The first half was a showcase in why these teams are facing off for a place in the finals rather than deep into the post-season. 

Shorn of a few stars and will all the pressure bearing down on them, neither side played particularly well, with plenty of unforced errors. At one point, Shaq Mitchell coughed the ball up, only for Joseph Suaalii to drop it back on the next tackle.

It was commendable that both sides still put air under the footy and attempted to get things going, but not much was working.

The Chooks did take the lead through a spilled kick by Alex Johnston that Corey Allan touched down, but were pegged back when Cam Murray exposed Brandon Smith on the goalline for a too-easy try.

There was plenty going on, with Taaffe’s HIA, a bell-ringing tackle by Izaas Thompson on Billy Smith and a constant back and forth, but it would be hard-pressed to call it high quality.

The Roosters’ halves prove the difference

It took a moment of genius to break through as Walker jinked inside Campbell Graham before producing a trademark looping pass to Junior Pauga, who acrobatically evaded Lachlan Ilias to get the ball down.

It underlined just how much the Roosters have missed their halfback. For all their misgivings about his defensive resolve, the Queenslander is by far their most creative player, their most likely to do something off the cuff and their primary in-play kicker, too. 

In games like this, where small margins are key, Walker is often the difference.

Keary can be too. It was he who bamboozled the Rabbits line, holding them still while Pauga charged up the wing, dumping inside for James Tedesco. He nearly bombed it, but found the strength to carry a few over with him.

When the Roosters got anywhere near Souths’ end, both halves were empowered to chance their arms. The line break count was 6-3, even though the Roosters had far less possession.

For a side that couldn’t attack, the Chooks have finally found how they want to score points. The defence was always there, and the addition of such creativity makes them a real threat.

Souths’ attack from deep falters

Souths aren’t generally too interested in accumulating pressure. Not that they’ll turn it down, of course, but when in good ball, they don’t take many settlers. They’ll go straight for the jugular.

Arguably their biggest threat comes from between 20 and 50 metres out, but they never got that going, likely due to missing some key component parts. 

Mitchell, obviously, is one and the loss of Taaffe not only removed him, but also took the key finisher in Johnston to the back and a crucial cog, Isaiah Tass, to a wing.

Throw in that the Roosters goalline is the best in the league and, for a long time, it looked a little incoherent.

But the Bunnies’ speed came to the fore again. By the hour mark, the possession (measured by time) was at pretty much 50/50, but Souths had turned that into seven more sets’ worth of football.

Damien Cook was able to come into the game, and on the back of that, Walker found his range on the left edge.

The goalline faltered under extreme pressure, as any would given the amount it was asked to do, but broadly contained the Bunnies. 

They didn’t jam, thus removing the ability to get around the outside, and were sometimes happy to concede metres to slow the ball down, denying Souths their set point plays in the process.

It will be perhaps the biggest worry that Demetriou has that, after two years as head coach and further time before that running the attack under Wayne Bennett, opponents now seem to be able to pick Plan A far too easily.

There were mitigating factors tonight with Mitchell out and injuries in the backline, but the truth is that, since May, they have struggled badly.

It is their defence that has been rightly identified as the issue, but rugby league is holistic and in the past, they scored enough points to dominate their opponents and make tackling easier.

Tonight, they had everything they needed to run up a score, but faced a Roosters side that tackled them out of it. That will be the big concern, and the coach will get a long off-season to think about where they can improve.