Pack strength in sufficient depth is a prerequisite to get to a semifinal in the Rugby World Cup. Then, magic and nerve is needed in the backline to win the whole bloody thing.
We set power rankings for the top eight packs; now the backs. Who can score best from entries into an opposing red zone? Who is most accurate at the poles? Which midfield is least leaky? Who has the finishing class on the wings?
Whilst Aussie fans should not be too tied to pack parity or supremacy, there is good news out back: Samu Kerevi and Marika Koroibete can break anyone’s tackles.
1. Ireland
The top team in the world has a superb pack, but it is in the backline where runners pick precise lines, a kick is just a pass by another name, and they are patiently confident, led by a future coach at flyhalf.
If Ireland can put nippy Jamison Gibson-Park, wily Jonathan Sexton, rhythmic Robbie Henshaw, greedy Garry Ringrose, manic Mack Hansen, jumpy James Lowe and smooth Hugo Keenan on the pitch for an hour, they will find a way to score tries, and old lion Conor Murray is no slouch off the bench.
Mack Hansen of Ireland, centre, celebrates with teammates Jimmy O’Brien, behind, and Hugo Keenan. (Photo By Seb Daly/Sportsfile via Getty Image
Are they that good in the individual or is it the collective good of coaching and system? The success of Gibson-Park, Hansen and Lowe suggests the latter; how much better would players like Will Jordan, Andrew Kellaway or Ryan Lonergan be in the Irish system?
But regardless, they are that good now. Cohesive, smart, and happy to win. They do not fear a loss and do the small things well. Shifting the ball quickly, going for gaps, and finding support.
2. New Zealand
Just a bit behind Ireland in the backs are the All Blacks.
But just on the one core skill that happens most: passing on a rope from the deck to the ten on time and target, Smith is supreme.
He now feeds the First of all the Five Eighths in Kiwiland, Richie Mo’unga who looks calmer than before and ready for the rough stuff.
An unusually large midfield of Jordie Barrett and Rieko Ioane are strange bedfellows who are better on attack than defence, but this seems to be the plan by Uncle Joe Schmidt: get on the front foot rather than soak up pressure. The nightmare of the Irish series win after the Japanese semifinal tragedy forced innovation.
At the back, there are wings hard to tackle, to choose from, but in classic All Black style, two fullback-wings in Will Jordan, he who cannot stop scoring, and foolishly written off Beauden Barrett.
(Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
No team can score more tries in a smaller spurt than them.
But what of Twickenham? We will go with the theory that this was an anamoly.
3. France
Unlike Ireland and New Zealand, who attack from their own half at times, France is committed to a Cartesian design of measured defence which transforms into safe points on attack.
The exceptions are well known: but with the missing Romain Ntamack involved or authoring most of those deep attacks, one would expect a Dupont and Thomas Ramos-driven long kick plan to be reinforced.
No matter who is flyhalf, France will play off nine and fullback.
The creative destruction of flanker-centre Jonathan Danty, who is reminiscent of Levani Botia in build, is crucial to this style.
Gael Fickou at 13 feeds off Danty’s collisions.
Opportunist Damian Penaud drifts in and out of games, but when he does click on, he is a rare breed; Kirwanesque.
But it is Ramos who may be the key to all of it. Penalties form a larger percentage of points in knockout games than in pool or normal Tests.
Nobody is kicking better than Ramos: for goal, for territory, for placement, and for real.
4. Scotland
Finn Russell could manufacture tries in a tyre factory. He is the mason of meat pies, the ass in assist, the dummies guide to flyhalf, and the alter ego of Gregor Townsend. He cashes the cheques Toonie bounced.
If rugby was as simple as best pack wins, Scotland would lose almost all the time. When they win, it is because they can play off the back foot better than most.
If Australia is to get to a semi and win it, they may have to out-Finn Finn, overcome their hog deficits, koroibete their duhan, and Samu Kerevi must demonstrate to Sione Tuipulotu that there is a gulf between being the third or fourth best Aussie 12 and being the best in a generation.
Scotland can score from nothing. Duhan van der Merwe has shown that many times: any normal exit kick that does not go out can be taken and put under your sticks and you will just wave.
Stuart Hogg’s wise retirement gave Scotland more speed and height at the back with Blair Kinghorn a surprisingly good athlete and not as erratic as the auld bionic hair-and-teeth model.
Huw Jones and Tuipulotu seem to unlock any sort of defence, even Franco-Saffa.
Darcy Graham and Kyle Steyn are danger men, as well.
By the way, Russell is a very fine goal kicker who does better than his peers when the match is on the line; check the stats.
5. Australia
Four and five would be switched if Quade Cooper was in the mix, not due to his playmaking (Carter Gordon is a Russell starter kit) but because his goal kicking has been stress tested and proved in big matches.
Every golfer loses it for a bit, and the best correct it during the round. We cannot know what happens to Gordon or his backup Ben Donaldson when the yips strike, and Nic White is not an 80 minute man.
Still, this backline is lethal if they get a sniff. Even with no possession to speak of, Marika Koroibete scored in the left corner early in two matches this year based on one good pass. He and Kerevi can fracture a defence both ways: creating illusions or winning collisions.
As is often the case for an Aussie team, the nine will be the lynchpin.
Carter Gordon. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Tate has the snipe Nic wishes he had; White has the pass McDermott is still trying to find. Both will be working with a rookie pivot.
In The Rugby Championship this year, none of it worked for long. But when it did work, in tiny patches, it looked lethal.
6. South Africa
How can a backline featuring Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse be sixth in the world? Well, it is not even clear if they will be the wings. Makazole Mapimpi and Canan Moodie lurk.
Also, the Bok brain trust has decided Willie le Roux and Damian Willemse are not complementary, but rather interchangeable.
Thus, with magic man Lukhanyo Am out, only three game breakers outside the 9-10-12 axis can be on the pitch at the same time. Shredded speedster Jesse Kriel is an experienced backup for Am, but does not have his hands or feet.
Damian de Allende or Andre Esterhuizen can set a ruck target off first-phase like nobody else except Kerevi.
The wings can all finish, and know le Roux’s passes come out of nowhere. Willemse is now a seasoned utility finisher.
But the 9-10 duo is the issue.
Faf de Klerk seems stuck in 2019. Cobus Reinach and Grant Williams are best in a wide open match unlikely to appear in a World Cup knockout. Jaden Hendrickse is the best of the lot but has almost no game time with Manie Libbok.
And here is the rub: before Twickenham, Libbok was making two or three of five kicks instead of four or all. That is not Bok rugby. That is a problem.
Yes, he can score or create tries against Australia or Argentina in South Africa, or against the All Blacks in a home-away-from-home game in London, but can he control a game in France against the French?
Do we know how he handles a kick for all the big boy marbles when the URC is now the RWC?
The final plot twist in Handre Pollard’s quest to be the Bok starting flyhalf in three straight Cups is yet to be told, but if he comes back in, and plays with Hendrickse or Faf, this Bok backline shoots back up to fourth, which might be just enough to win it all, or third, and then, it is.
Or, Libbok continues to slot his goals at a Bok-rate; then the plot thickens. This group could be holding the trophy at the end, with all reputations enhanced.
7. Italy
Ange Capuozzo did not vanish. He is here. He is ready to rumble in a place very familiar. The Garbisis, Paolo and Allessandro, are also very familiar to each other. Paolo is a fine ten, with an instinctive footballer’s acumen for lines.
Monte Ioane and Paolo Odogwu can find space out wide of veterans like Luca Morisi and Juan Brex.
The Pacific Island nations have gamebreakers (take a look at the Samoa team sheet) but Italy has a shape which fits a Northern cup.
England/Wales/Argentina
These three teams have very good fullbacks. Big tall strong Freddie Steward, wiry pub brawler Liam Williams, and Mr. Do-it-All Emiliano Boffelli are proper ballers.
All three have two or three other stalwarts: Josh Adams, George North and Dan Biggar from Wales; Pumas halfbacks Gonzalo Bertranou and Tomas Cubelli; and Owen Farrell or George Ford for England.
The issue is they are not scoring tries against top teams from actual backline moves or phases.
Until that happens, despite having more proven and reliable goalkickers than Australia and South Africa, these teams simply do not ask defences enough questions.
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks Hazzaaa! noice. I think the SA rating is undercooked. But it may all change soon enough as you mentioned.
Harry Jones
Expert
Slipper's leg is a worry.
Harry Jones
Expert
Hope it goes well. No need for a retraction if he kicks 4 of 5. It will be cause for celebration. QC is a prophet loved more outside his own country. He has definitely made big kicks in big Tests. E.g. a monster in this year's Bledisloe after CG missed an easy one; or in 2022 to beat the Springboks.
Ajaxx
Roar Rookie
Pollard is available for selection.
whistleblower (retired)
Roar Rookie
By any measure Lolesio has not lived up to expectations - he has never 'demanded' attention the way Gordon has. Mind you I would say the same about Donaldson. It will be interesting to see how Edmed, who I prefer over Donaldson, compares in next years SR versus Jack Bowen and Tom Lynagh
whistleblower (retired)
Roar Rookie
'Gordon Bennett'!!! Carter Gordon (no pun intended) has one poor kicking game, one game!, and you are prepared to right him off. I think that's a bit rich!! It is frustrating when perfection is expected (demanded?) from day one; the time to judge him is, probably at the end of the next SR season. I know this tournament is the pinnacle and in the end I believe we will be well pleased with Gordon's efforts. I hope there will be a retraction should he kick well through the tournament. All his kicks against France seemed well struck; unlike many we have seen from Foley and Cooper. Cut the guy a little slack and stop, what seems to be, continued whinging about Cooper's exclusion. He was never really world class by any rational comparison.
moaman
Roar Guru
the Boks out scored them in the 2nd half. If memory serves, it was only a missed conversion by RM that allowed that to happen. Small margins indeed.
4 of 6
Roar Rookie
Backs need a platform to operate, even the best backline. So ball quality is so important. If that doesn’t happen, then which backline has the ability to still produce. The ABs backline still looks the best and most versatile. Ireland rely on forward possession and Sexton is smart but no spring chicken off the mark. France have the flair and can produce something out of nothing. ABs at 1 , France at 2 and Ireland 3…..the Wallabies backs are hit and miss, so if dominated up front they struggle and can be easily shut down.
Bluesfan
Can't say that - Mt Smart was an Anomaly and previous week the standard has being set by the Boks! Ireland/France joint favorites Then Boks/AB's /Scotland Then any of Fiji/Oz/England/Arg - because they could have a dream side of draw. Boks biggest issue in lot's of ways is their draw - Scotland, Ireand and then Tonga. Tonga are just stacked with quality (reality is no one can play their B side vs Tonga) and think can expect that all three sides (Boks, Ireland and Scotland) will probably be coming out of group with injuries. Actual fact has there ever being a harder Pool than the one that the Boks are in - only 1 easy game vs Romania, other 3 are going to be super tough! Consider AB's probably have 1 tough game to get to quarters (hopefully!) and then a month till QF vs all of Scotland, Ireland and Boks with 3 extremely tough games If Boks do win WC - they will be worthy champions because their road to winning WC is incredibly tough vs likes of AB's etc.
Bluesfan
Think to have any chance they need Willie at 15 - but without Pollard playing I can't see Boks going far. Once you get deep into the WC and as seen over this cycle with Bok results - you can't bash/bully your way through the top sides - all the top sides are big men and Boks are not supermen. Without Pollard - even when you do bully the sides and gain penalty etc - can Libbok be relied to create scoreboard pressure via penalty kicks? Watch the last 20 minutes of that 1st half - if not that Barrett RC - penalty in front of posts and up to AB's going for lineout or penalty. Then into Half time with all to play with and that's with playing vs 13 men for 10 minutes and AB's having to make early replacement of prime scrummage prop Some very easy yards in Boks defence - just look at Roigard's try. Whilst telling us how Mt Smart was an anomaly maybe Bok fans should be asking how/why AB's scored the last points scored in the match. The Boks should really have piled on points in back half of 2nd half but they only scored one try. So the last 20 minutes of the game it was 7 all between AB/Boks - all of Oz/France/Ireland would have put 20 points on the AB's. Really highlights some issues for the Boks - quality sides are ruthless sides and if you can't put away a team when you are one man up - when happens when a side keeps all their players on the field? If Boks want to win WC - I think they need Pollard (goal kicking) and Am (defence) back otherwise think smarter sides will pull them to pieces just like at Mt Smart.
Harry Jones
Expert
NZ still the faves (10th time in 10 Cups). France at home. Ireland #1. Boks are 4th fave
Harry Jones
Expert
I think he’d be forced to if QF/SF looms and, for example, CG can’t hit kicks and has the yips.
Harry Jones
Expert
Boks have been living off the counter (and Willie’s assists).
Harry Jones
Expert
And Scotland, quietly, has continuity from 2019 in the pack (it’s just that it didn’t even work then against Japan).
Bluesfan
Think the AB's will be very happy with how they are suddenly being writtern off and previous games are now an Anomaly - guess Ellis Park was as well. Funnily enough at Mt Smart both teams had played the previous week and both were match fit and yet that game is the anomaly? Personally I went back and watched the first half again. The Boks started with a hiss and roar and effectively owned the AB's for that first 15 minutes - but they had played the previous week vs AB's majority a month ago in Melbourne and that makes a big difference but people seem happy to ignore that reality? Then at the 15 minute mark AB's were down to 13 men all due to great pressure from the Boks etc. And playing against a 13 man AB team they scored one good try and one intercept try - but from the time that Cane returned and as the AB's started to play and get some front foot ball - Boks were not looking so good. Mo'unga then missed a penalty in front of the Boks posts that 9 times out of 10 he would have nailed and then Barrett had his brain explosion and RC - but if that had not occured - the AB's had just received another penalty in front of the posts in the Bok 22 and could have gone for the lineout and try or slotted very simple 3 points. So at half time without Barrett's brain explosion - it could easily have being 3-14 or if Mo'unga had slotted that penalty (as he should have) 6-14 and/or if lineout and drive 10-14. That is a pretty poor return for the Boks when they played an AB side with 13 men for 10 minutes (both YC's happened within a minute) - forget the 2nd half it's not relevant, once you get a RC for peer adversaries it's game over and the only question is how much you lose by. If anything that 2nd half showed Boks have some issues around attack - by comparision when you consider that the Wallabies in Perth (again Barrett RC) 2019 put 34 points on the AB's in the 2nd half vs Boks 21 points - shows a lack of cut throat attack by Boks. So overall (even though they lost) actually I'm pretty happy with how the AB's went given their prep and this sudden writing them off seems strange really when you actually look at that first half in all it's context. Personally next time for the AB's pack I would expect to see Frizell, Taylor and Retallick with the reserve props to be Laulala and Tu'ungafasi and obviously would not expect to see the scrum/pack to fall apart. Frankly I would be very worried if I was a Bok fan at how easily the AB's breeched the Bok backline - 2 intercepts and resulting in one try but what happens when AB's smarten up their passing - are intercepts a defensive strategy? And then to realistically only come away with 1 geninue try when playing 15 vs 13 - personally think the likes of Ireland, France know if they can handle/hold Boks physically they can run up some points but do the Boks have the ability to score points especially without Pollard playing? So lot's to ponder for the AB's as that first 15 minutes they were poor very poor but they have not suddenly become a poor team. Couple of replacements, mentally get in the right space and hopefully this was just a blip. Course I could be clutching at straws as an AB fan and we are doomed!!! For Bok fans - maybe some things to ponder - bar an intercept try, all the tries were scored by Forwards playing with a 1 man advantage apart from the Mbonambi try (Peter Steph DT YC) and that should worry them - because in the big WC games where are the points going to come from?
Ankle-tapped Waterboy
Roar Rookie
It's about mindset and how you approach the sport. Take ski-ing. There are two types of ski-ing: downhill ski-ing and cross country. Downhill is same old same old but fast, whereas cross-country you get to see some pretty interesting places and challenges. This is why I excel at cross-country golf, you really get your money's worth by travelling in tiger country. Cross-transfer of rugby-honed skills helps. Like that advice in the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy to always know where your towel is, and having been trained as a ballboy, I find that I am readily able to locate the most elusive of errant balls. IMO cross-country golf is more fun but less telegenic.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Scotland is the only team ruining everyone's theories at the moment. Capable of anything yet not quite taken that seriously. Definately a threat to Ireland's spot in the 1/4s
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Way to much is being made of that last game thats for sure. Sometimes the world just aligns to hurt you and I think the team is better to just accept a bad day and bin it. I do feel that there is some holding back of tactics but once you're down to 13-14 it becomes difficult
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Yes its going to be hard matches no matter the pool results.
Harry Jones
Expert
He has the most caps in the Youth 10 list (which is very short!)