Of history and hope: Finals underdogs can win against the odds judging by past playoff boilovers

And then there were eight. Yes, it’s finals time, a pecking order has been established and the mostly small differences between those comprising that order are likely to be ruthlessly exposed in the next few weeks.

Then again, there could be a surprise or two. Minor premiers Penrith won’t be playing the eighth-ranked Raiders, or the Broncos be up against the seventh-ranked Roosters, as they would’ve just over a decade ago under the previous format.

The gaps are smaller than they might otherwise be, and a wildcard could still emerge from the bottom half of the bracket. It’s been done before, after all.

The conventional and unconventional wisdom is that beating Penrith will require somebody to red-line their attack and surprise them, like a mid-ranking tennis pro trying to beat peak Roger Federer. In-form winger Dallin Watene-Zelezniak’s going to have to hit the corners early and often for the Warriors to win.

Newcastle’s on a roll and Canberra are regressing rapidly toward their points differential, which always seemed likely. But maybe that’s exactly what they want you to think. Stopping the crusading Knights in Newcastle wouldn’t even be the strangest thing Ricky Stuart’s Raiders have done this season.

Brisbane finished four points clear of Melbourne on the ladder, have overcome almost everything thrown at them this season and will start slight favourites. But they haven’t beaten Melbourne since 2016 and haven’t beaten them at Lang Park since Methusalah was a rookie. The Storm just keep on finding a way, so regardless of what the bookies think, the Broncos are slight underdogs.

The other one’s a puzzler. Cronulla’s been about as convincing as Homer Simpson impersonating Monty Burns of late, while barely a month back the Roosters were Barney Gumble lying in the gutter, if you’ll excuse all the Simpsons metaphors.

Does the momentum of the Roosters’ recovery continue? Quite possibly, but for now Cronulla’s home advantage and superior overall record make them favourites.

So, with our underdogs established, let’s look back at a day when a previous version of those underdogs caused an upset in the finals. It can, and occasionally has, happened.

Michael Witt is congratulated after scoring the winning try in 2008 in Melbourne. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

New Zealand Warriors 18 vs Melbourne Storm 15, 2008 Qualifying Final: This was coach Ivan Cleary’s first ever finals victory. He would lead the Warriors to a grand final three years later after victory over Melbourne in one of the classic finals of the NRL era, but the 2008 Warriors were still a work in progress.

They barely scraped into the finals, relying in part on Newcastle losing to the Broncos in the final round, and the old McIntyre system then dictated a trip to face first-placed Melbourne in week one of the finals. The Warriors had leaked points all season – more than twice as many as the Storm – so a tight low-scoring affair was the last thing anybody expected.

But that’s exactly what happened, and while the Warriors win was a late smash-and-grab effort, they were in the game throughout. It was 8-8 at half-time before the Warriors edged in-front early in the second half. While Melbourne fought back and took a 15-14 lead, the Warriors continued to threaten until, finally, Manu Vatuvei sent Michael Witt away for a 78th minute winner.

Witt came perilously and inexplicably close to blowing it, but he got it down, eventually.

Canberra Raiders 32 vs Eastern Suburbs 24, 1987 Preliminary Final: There are some good ones to choose from here, including upsets in 1989 and 2019, but let’s go back to Canberra’s first ever finals campaign in 1987.

The Raiders were showing signs of their future trajectory, with the star quartet of Mal Meninga, Gary Belcher, Peter Jackson and Gary Coyne, along with coach Wayne Bennett, all plundered from Brisbane Souths. Steve Walters was ensconced at dummy-half, while brother Kevin and a young Glenn Lazarus started on the bench. The future looked (and was) very bright.

The Raiders had finished third and earned themselves a second chance in ‘87, but the first chance didn’t go well as they slumped to a disappointing defeat to Easts at the SCG. But when the chips were down, the Raiders responded, thrashing Souths the following week to earn another shot at the Roosters.

This time they were ready. Despite falling behind early in the second half, Canberra’s tactics were bearing fruit. Sam Backo and Steve Walters were running riot through the middle. Easts were out on their feet, and it was Matthew Corkery, of all people, who finally breached them, with Peter Jackson following a similar route to the line a few minutes later.

Brisbane Broncos 37 vs Canterbury Bulldogs 20, 2006 Preliminary Final: The last Broncos premiership team certainly didn’t look like one if you were sitting in the Lang Park bleachers a couple of weeks earlier when they lost their qualifying final rather limply to the Dragons.

They looked a little off the pace and cobbled together. Justin Hodges was playing fullback, albeit quite well, the workmanlike David Stagg was in the centres and the journeyman Shane Perry was playing half, while former test centre Shaun Berrigan had shifted to dummy-half.

These were, of course, masterstrokes by old master coach Bennett. The Broncos thumped Newcastle to get their campaign back on track the following week, before lulling the Bulldogs into a false sense of security by falling behind 6-20 at half-time in the preliminary final.

A total of 31 unanswered points followed, kick-started by a brilliant try created by Hodges’ weaving run from deep and acrobatically finished by Berrigan in the 45th minute.

Sydney Roosters 19 vs Wests Tigers 15, 2010 Qualifying Final: A predictable choice, perhaps, but the Roosters have rarely defied the odds in finals since their back-to-back wins over minor premiers Glebe in 1911. And even then, they had Dally Messenger.

While you could argue that their victory over Penrith the following weekend was a little more unlikely, they had to beat the Tigers to get to that game, and they were all but gone, trailing by seven with fewer than that number of minutes remaining against the Tigers.

Then Mitchell Pearce scored. Then there was chaos. Then Frank-Paul Nu’uausala finagled the ball from a scrum in the 80th minute. Then there was more chaos. Then Braith Anasta stepped up and, eventually, after several ill-fated field goal attempts from both sides, Shaun Kenny-Dowall ran away with it.