Well, now they’ve got a job on their hands, haven’t they?
The Wallabies’ 22-15 loss to Fiji in Saint Etienne – the most historic of wins for our Pacific mates – leaves them sitting precariously in the Pool C standings and already in that perpetual hurt-zone of mathematical equation with two games still to play.
As it stands, Australia trails unbeaten Wales by four points, and despite being level with Fiji on six points with a slightly better record, the Wallabies sit below the Flying Fijians on account of losing the head-to-head advantage.
Fiji have similarly lost that advantage to Wales after their first weekend loss in Bordeaux, and as if Pool C wasn’t fascinating enough, it’s now clear these head-to-heads are going to play as decisive a role as bonus points in deciding the final standings.
Among several review podcasts I took in after the Australian loss on Monday morning, two themes stood out.
The first and very obvious one being that World Cups aren’t won without experience – the finishing Wallabies backline left to chase that game for the best part of half an hour took the grand sum of 105 Tests into this match, and 85 of those were Marika Koroibete’s and Jordan Petaia’s.
It was no wonder there was little or no idea among them how to manage those crucial closing stages of a must-win Test because a). they had precious little experience of having to do that at international level and b). they’d certainly not done it together as a backline unit.
PARIS, FRANCE – SEPTEMBER 09: Eddie Jones, Head Coach of Australia, during the warm up prior to the Rugby World Cup France 2023 match between Australia and Georgia at Stade de France on September 09, 2023 in Paris, France. (Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images)
Experienced teams don’t engage in 90-second kicking duels with three minutes left on the clock and a seven-point deficit on the scoreboard. Fiji kept kicking it back because they couldn’t believe it kept being presented as an option for them to wind down those final minutes.
The second was that because of the bye on the fifth and final weekend of pool matches, the Wallabies may have to wait until the very last game of the pool stage – Fiji v Portugal in Toulouse on October 8 – before knowing if they make the knockout stage or not. For one whole week after their final game, Australia could have to keep training and preparing for a game they may not get to play.
But never mind that now, because the Wallabies’ task is a whole lot more urgent this week.
After somehow allowing themselves to be comprehensively out-structured by Fiji of all international teams, Australian this week needs to somehow create a gameplan and regain the right amount of deliberate structure in their approach in order to do the same thing to Wales that Fiji did to them.
Yep, that’s right, the Wallabies now need to find a structured game that will allow them to out-structure one of the most structured teams in international rugby.
On the surface, it feels as analogous as trying to out-fluid a team as unstructured as Fiji traditionally has been, but given the Wallabies actually tried to do that in Saint Etienne, maybe Australian fans can still hold a candle of hope.
If Fiji were happy to take three-point offerings on the numerous times the Wallabies offered them up, we can be assured the Welsh will be more than happy to do the same.
So tactical kicking is going to need to be better, and it needs to be backed up by an excellent kick-chase. Structure will require a strong set piece platform, which means more ball into touch than has been the case so far in the tournament, which in turn requires the highest level of precision at lineout.
Breakdown accuracy while in possession – the permanent Achilles heel of the Wallabies – needs to be the best it’s been in years. My notes point to five separate penalties conceded for not releasing in the last 22 minutes against Fiji, and that’s a long way from being acceptable at international level.
(Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
If even only three of those are in Dan Biggar’s range, there’s nine more points the Wallabies will find themselves chasing right there.
And make no mistake, the Wallabies don’t want to have to chase a game against the Welsh, because they’re far too experienced to exploit in that facet of the game.
One of the oldest squads in the tournament, and with Lions all across the park, Wales took more than 1000 Tests’ worth of experience into the Fiji match, and the Wallabies can expect something very similar.
Australia against Fiji on the weekend? Five hundred and forty-two.
Eddie Jones needs to find structure urgently, and for goodness’ sake, he needs to get his selections right. Both the Georgia win and Fiji loss highlighted the folly of selecting players of very limited (or no) versatility on the bench, and any continuation of that this week will be the definition of insanity.
Now is not the time for X-factor for Australia.
Structure and definition and intent has to be the Wallabies themes this week; it’s that clear and obvious.
Don M
Roar Rookie
Yeah, I was loosely referring to his place in the squad over Samu, Don.
Don
Roar Rookie
Pete Samu is not a 7. He can fill the spot for 20 minutes off the bench, but the tests last year showed that whilst he is dynamic and played great, it was like having 2 guys playing the blindside role, and we didn't get a presence over the ball quickly, nor was there a link to the backs. We always need to start a specialist 7.
Nate
Roar Rookie
At this stage yes, but looks the goods and brings abit more size, which is the way 7s are trending.
Olly
Roar Rookie
If the squad deadline was a few days later he would have been cleared to play and in the team.
Cec
Roar Rookie
That’s why it was crazy not to have your best back of the last couple of years in initially in place of Jorgo, Kemeny and I’ll even include Suli.
Olly
Roar Rookie
They need an injury to call him in. This is the rules of the tournament. We don’t have a tournament ending injury in the team yet. If we get one, we will see Lenny at 13.
Cec
Roar Rookie
He can select Lenny now so send the 18yr old home as he’s taking up valuable space for this next donor die. Will Eddie do it? Nah Ed thinks the X factor and size of JP is the way to go.
Ruckin' Oaf
Roar Rookie
Where does EJ find players with half decent rugby smarts ?? There might be a couple around he's overlooked. Failing that maybe he could, I dunno, coach some smarts into the players he has.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
You don’t. Because my point is how much opportunity was there to be involved?
HittingGapsWithNoGas
Roar Rookie
Yeah I think Donaldson has done enough to put his hand up. I feel for Gordon but maybe coming off the bench might give him some hunger back. I dunno. I reckon Donaldson to 10 to make way for Kellaway at 15. Nawaqanitawase and Marika on the wings. Kerevi and Perese in the centres with Foketi on the bench. And for late second half interchange, perhaps Gordon slots into 10, Donaldson to 15 and Kellaway into 13. The Wallabies have looked their strongest this year when they focus on quick ruck speed and bigger bodies flying in about 15m either side of the rucks. That was the pattern they went with early on in Dunedin and that was their go-to when they started to look more dangerous against Fiji around the 65 minute mark when IFL came on. And in my uninformed opinion, kicking should be restricted to exiting; low, punchy, attacking 50-22 options when they’re on; and aerials to the wings if we’re starting to go static outside the Wales 22. Box kicks should earn you nudie runs and kick-passing should be avoided unless the Welsh midfield defence is giving up no ground.
savant
Roar Rookie
But Fiji didn't score any tries from phase or set play, just one lucky turnover. So the defence clearly held. Also the Fijians played very deep so it looked like they made more metres but they didn't make that much progress in the phases.
southcoastboy
Roar Rookie
Totally agree re passing was woeful. Our backs stand too flat and close to the defensive line and if there's slow ball from the half-back, they're smashed. Even standing a couple of metres deeper would open up the backline a bit. Frustrating.
Olly
Roar Rookie
He elected not to have surgery making him cleared to play. He is also only there for experience and might at best get a run against Portugal. You keep going on about it when we know why Lenny was not selected. I can guarantee that EJ would have selected his first pick 13 if he could have.
Olly
Roar Rookie
Jorgo is the more complicated one. He was meant to have surgery which would rule him out. They chose not to have surgery in the end making him "fit to play". He is only there for experience in the end.
Ozrugbynut
Roar Rookie
Trust me, I don't have expectations. He, and others (Leota, Hooper, Slips in particular) need to step up in relation to the break down work IMO. We seem work shy..
ShortBlind
Roar Rookie
I see your point but still, he was pedestrian and wasn’t proactive in seeking to be involved when the opportunity was there. Not the first time either. Just too passive for his size and athleticism.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
It's not great to be a fan but the question is could Rennie have done any better. Would a Rennie defense have held Fiji to one try. The penalties that cost Oz started under Rennie so an WC under him could have gone the same way.
Crusher_13
Roar Rookie
Less Brumbies less wins. Where’s Jimbo to tell us how it’s all the Brumbies fault?
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Learning to run a breakdown and do tactical kicking is probably part of it. Hopefully SRP sees a big jump in these skills when it starts back up in 2024. I know Oz won't do the current NZ top level head in the sand stuff of what they are currently doing will be sufficient.
Rocky's Rules
Roar Rookie
@Brett The winning structure imo is the one where you reduce the penalty count from 18 to 5, the missed tackle count from 23 to 5 and the on feild kicking stat from from 28 to 10. Then select a team to deliver it. Problem for EJ is that he didn't pick a squad who can deliver it. Chronic error prone players J Petaia and R Arnold have to go for starters. Slow passing Isaac F-L should be ditched. Do nothing much R Leota gone. Where does Eddie find a bench that isn't woeful. Lastly, it's not lack of experience at Test level that caused WB players to engage in kicking comps when 7 points behind with 2 mins to go. I'd learnt that lesson in the Coogee under 12s. That was just dumb play even for a 12 yr old. Where does EJ find players with half decent rugby smarts ??