When Brisbane are on, they are something to behold.
For two and a half quarters against Carlton at the Gabba, from the dying stages of the first term to midway through the last, the Lions were on. And it was breathtaking.
Keidean Coleman played the game of his life from half-back, intercepting everything that came his way, getting the Lions going with precise kicking, and even pushing up to the brink of 50, where he had a hand in an equal game-high seven scores.
Lachie Neale was once again rampant in the midfield after a slow start, turning the tables on Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh and co. with another supreme performance. Alongside him, Josh Dunkley’s second term for the ages was crucial in turning the tide, while Oscar McInerney’s reach, deft tapwork and ability to press forward made mincemeat of the Marc Pittonet-Tom De Koning combination that had nullified Max Gawn a week ago.
On the outside, Jarrod Berry played possibly his best game of the season to continually give the Lions an outlet option, with his speed, endurance and smart kicking more than making up for a quiet game from Hugh McCluggage on the inside.
Down back, Darcy Gardiner stepped into the breach left by Jack Payne to nullify Charlie Curnow; in front of them, Harris Andrews’ aerial efforts were dazzling. Conor McKenna and Ryan Lester were very nearly as damaging as Coleman once the game tipped the Lions’ way.
In attack, Lincoln McCarthy’s pressure first cut the Blues’ defensive structure to ribbons, before his goal nous and accurate kicking saw him cash in with two goals.
Charlie Cameron got better as the game wore on, Joe Daniher more precise.
In the middle two quarters, the stats said everything you needed to know about the Lions’ utter dominance. From 11-22 down in inside 50s at quarter time (the Blues’ number the most the Lions have conceded in a quarter all year) they’d go 39-18 from then until three quarter time. After a 9-5 clearance disadvantage early, including 5-1 from centre bounces as Walsh started hot, the Lions would go 39-21 for the rest of the match.
Every single stat that, nine times out of ten, pinpoints the Lions’ dominance, was decisively in their favour. In anyone’s book, that’s a thrashing.
Any team that can get jumped like the Lions were by the Blues in the first 25 minutes, conceding five goals to zero to leave their season on the brink, and rebound so devastatingly, is something special. If those two and half quarters of mayhem were how they played all match long, they’d have won by 10 goals and be going into this grand final as premiership favourites.
But everything they did so brilliantly in the second and third quarters – their dynamic running, precise kicking, super-fast transition speed and deadly forward line – was as noticeable for being unstoppable during their golden run as it was for being just about totally absent in the first term.
No doubt the Collingwood brains trust will have been jotting down notes furiously about how the Blues were able to shut down the Lions’ transition play – from nine defensive 50 possession chains in that opening term, the Lions, among the best in the league at scoring from the back half, failed to register a single goal.
There was haphazard bombing to contests, long but ill-thought-out kicks straight to Blues outnumbers, or just straight up turnovers: all under a suffocating blanket of Blues pressure.
22 inside 50s in the first term is a simple staggering amount to give up in a preliminary final; really, the Lions’ defence did well to hold out for as long as they did, as it was only with three quick goals late in the quarter that the margin accurately reflected the Blues’ stunning start.
The Lions have always had issues in coping with manic pressure on their running half-backs, which with six tackles inside 50 to quarter time the Blues certainly brought. It proved crucial in their most recent loss to Gold Coast, and was a big reason why Chris Fagan has deemed the older, slower Daniel Rich surplus to requirements in the back end of the season.
Pressured into submission early by a ferocious Carlton team effort, the Blues’ smothering effect was epitomised by the fact the Lions, the heaviest-kicking team in the competition all year whose kick-handball ratio is 2:1, had 46 passes by foot and 43 by hand at quarter time.
The home team, as a comparison, would have 177 kicks and 66 handballs for the rest of the match as they got the game back on their own terms.
Denied any tempo early by that same pressure, 14 marks to quarter time became 104 by the end, the Lions even exceeding their own competition third-best average of 99 per game.
The Blues, it seemed, had one shot to fire before they could give no more – those two middle quarters told of a team fatigued, and after those elimination and semi final thrillers, who could blame them?
But that shot was a pretty spectacular one all the same. Teams don’t usually lose finals from a five-goal head start, and certainly not as comprehensively as this.
It was only when the Lions, seemingly assured of a grand final spot, slackened in the last that the Blues could rally, turning just one goal from late in the first quarter to midway through the last to two in three minutes to draw the margin back to 16 points.
Essentially, my point is this: the Lions are, for all their many strengths, still so vulnerable. Because as good as that period of dominance was, that they only ended up winning by 16 points, on their impregnable home patch, against a side that ended with quite literally nothing in the tank after a gruelling September, could prove just as significant as what they can do at their best.
The Pies won’t be as easy to flick the switch on as the Blues were this week; their pressure won’t abate quite as quickly as Carlton’s, nor will they find it as straightforward to get the match back on their terms.
Pound for pound, Brisbane are stronger than Collingwood – their forward lines are a world apart, the Lions’ midfield is a supreme, well-oiled machine and the Magpies’ is only middle of the road, and both backlines are packed with stars both for defence and attack.
Let’s put it this way: if the Lions again decide not to show up for the first quarter, I can’t see it working out quite as well as it did here.
Brisbane are still such a bizarre team to try and get a read on: it sure feels like they should be even more dominant than they are, a grand final berth notwithstanding.
Maybe I’m being too harsh. Maybe I’m just a miserable bastard who hates fun and can’t accept that every team is going to have weaknesses.
But my gut feeling remains the same as it has been since the Lions knocked off the Magpies in Round 23: if they can’t win the flag from here, it’ll be an egregious waste of the spectacular talent on their list.
And if any team can find a way to turn those periods of vulnerability into a critical, grand final-defining weakness for longer than the single quarter Carlton managed it, you can bet your bottom dollar it’ll be Collingwood.
At the very least, if it’s the Pies who draw the margin to 16 points midway through the final quarter at the MCG next week, every single person associated with Brisbane will break out in a cold sweat.
Abbotsford
Roar Rookie
Dear Pete, I feel that Noble has to come in and tag Lachie Neale and Brayden Maynard has to go on Charlie Cameron. Billy Frampton will have to man up on Joe Daniher while Jeremy Howe should go up forward and score a couple to make the Lions more accountable. Darcy Moore and Nathan Murphy will need to springboard all the attacks with Quaynor and the Daicos brothers. If anyone tries to king hit Daicos then a free for all is in order. This Grand Final has a bit of 1990 and 1953 about it from a Collingwood standpoint. Fingers crossed for Craig and the lads . Besides we owe them oner since 2002 and 2003.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Thanks Pete. Maybe we get Blues v Pies GF next year.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Absolute smashing after quarter time. Lions just were very wasteful at times. Should of really won by 6+ goals. Some of the misses by Charlie Cameron and Hipwood were easy shots. But i think the smashing very much a result of Dam wall effect for the Blues. They've been going at this level for 12 weeks. Elimination footy for half a season- something had to give.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Just a stinger. Looks like an ongoing injury he's had since his Fremantle days. Will probably end up under the knife again at the end of the season.
dargerovitch
Roar Rookie
Hawks also beat Brisbane by 25 points at the G this year as well as C'wood by 32. Interesting that a side that finished 16th. could beat both the eventual top two in the H & A season.
Tezza knows
Roar Rookie
I can't see weaknesses in Lions perhaps except in Defence. So you'll see them playing on at all costs. The overal issue of the Pies is their ageing players may fade in the last quarter. And related to that is that In finals they we're on the ropes. They aren't storming home like they used to. They are trying to ' save' the game rather than win it, McRae is prattling on about this and I think it's creating a mindset in the minds of the players to do the same in the GF. Well, that's not how we won our matches this year, nor is it the right psychology Say what you like, winning close matches is not good play, its luck must if the time. Trying to win another game by trying to close it down for several minutes is just not at all what I'd be advising at all. Grand Finals are there to be won not ' saved'. Brisbane have enough runners to destroy that rest assured. We must strive to get back to our helter skelter game. Thats where we have been successful. McRae needs to change the narrative back to that . Its a significant issue Players like Bobby, McCreery and Elliot want that, they are all at sea with a ' save the game' mentality.. ditto for the Daicos players It's press the reset button and attack
PeteB
Roar Rookie
Good luck for the gf Pete. Now we can’t beat the Pies I hope they win :thumbup:
Tezza knows
Roar Rookie
Too too heavy to play Frampton IMO against a free running and yes, running team . I think they Weill risk Adams, if he passes a pressure test. His form though has been ‘ average’.. again he doesn’t hurt oppositions .. You just don’t see it . Darcy Cam may play deep forward more than previously and this will worry Brisbane.
Tezza knows
Roar Rookie
Lipinski is a dud, we can’t afford to carry him .. he has to go
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Congratulations Pete on a great season. Better than 14 other clubs and a great launch pad
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Agreed Kevo both Cox and Cameron were good. Cameron’s best game in months and Cox ruck was excellent
Tezza knows
Roar Rookie
I watched the replay of Pies v GWS, and one thing is certain. We can’t continue to play, non performers, players that don’t hurt oppositions, players that simply aren’t good enough. Lipinski must go, for sure. I was very disappointed with McCreery, there’s was just not enough output and didn’t see any real ferociousness. There was an aura about him, it’s gone a bit, but he must get more of the ball. He is below par and must improve; there is a laziness there, and there is no marking prowess, or plays that convince you that he’ll take any of the marks if one to one. . Almost ditto for Elliot, but I never question his endeavour and his marking abilities… Elliot seems injured and his form has fallen away. He is a strong willed type and knows he must lift . BTW Quanor is serviceable, no more than that. If you line him up with the contribution of say, lions defender, Coleman, the class and abilities of Coleman are far superior. But team wise Quanor is resilient and calm. A luxury we can’t afford to have is having Checkers, Elliot and Macreery, just plonked in the half forward area without being rotated on occasions. McRae has just left it all to chance. These three don’t have the tank do that and weren’t given any real time in the midfield, during the season ( poor) allowing the blue chip mids to rest high in the forward line. Unless Elliot lifts, he needs to, we are in trouble. Brisbane backs will run off these players. To me, Elliot is not the player I’d carry right now but it’s too late to fiddle without a replacement. The ill disciplined Ginnivan will have to play forward. If what we hear is true, he has built up some aerobic capacity, so putting him mid in bursts will be needed. Pendles and co if rested on forward line may stop or upset the run of Brisbane out of Defence. The coach must read the riot act to Ginnivan.. “ no fifty metre penalties or giving away free kicks”, and yes it’s a serious issue. The monumental error has been the mismanagement of Ash Johnston. If he was nurtured more and played every game, his X factor and use of his footy weapons alone, would see us overcome Brisbane . The evidence has been what we have all seen.. great abilities on display by Ash, but poor coaching. They really muffed this.He would not have broken his arm if he played all senior games .. just unforgivable not to have persisted with Ash. I feel Moore is missing something, seems distracted, to me he used to take more one to one critical contested marks, but that has fallen away somewhat; its desperately needed as Howe is not a high possession type. Crisp and Nick and Josh, must rebound, and Jordy needs help as Mitchell and Pendles fall away somewhat due to age. So no wonder they are hoping and praying that Adams will recover to prop up the mids. History tells us that the risk is too high, but they may risk playing him if he passes a Friday lunch time test. 28 degrees day will help that, but not the team as we aren’t used to heat. Finally, yes Kreuger, has the constitution … tall, strong fierce to put Brisbane players off. I’m unsure how well prepared he is. We can’t (probably) play Frampton.. I’d like to but we’d be very top heavy. We just must drop Lipinski. He is not up to it by a long shot
Dingo
Roar Rookie
Yes mate, get some early goals like Carlton did but keep foot on the throat. The heart wants Lions but the head says Pies at the moment. Just not completely trusting Lions away from fortress Gabba
Andrew
Roar Guru
De Goey has that Dusty-like feel for big games - he had a ripper of a game in 2018. Don't underestimate how much Neale and Cameron want to make amends for 2013 and 2017 - 2 GF's their teams arguably could have won (wonky goalkicking for Freo in 2013 and a disastrous second half from Adelaide in 2017). It is a genuine toss-up for who's going to win and I can't bloody wait.
PeteB
Roar Rookie
5 goals, but the momentum change was gonna come as it always does. Would have liked to have been closer at 3/4 time.
Chanon
Roar Rookie
At 4 goals up in 1st qtr blues looked unbeatable, damn shame.
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Yea Dingo & another factor l applaud Lions for was the hardness at the contest which really tripped up the blues & forged the red hot lions to victory. Kudos to the victors & the pies will need to be aware the soft edge of the past maybe gone. If the lions can quieten that huge crowd early on anything is possible.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
The Swans had a similar record to the Lions MCG record coming into the 2012 GF. Their previous poor history didn't count for much when they held up the premiership cup that afternoon.
Parklane7835
Roar Rookie
Where are Sam Durdin,Josh Honey,Sam Philip and Lachie Plowman at for Carlton 2024 season?
ChrisH
Roar Rookie
I'd be more worried about the Pies who have been held goalless for a quarter in both their finals. No team in the AFL era has ever won a flag after being held goalless in a quarter in one of their earlier finals. And about a dozen have tried. I'm not worried about the Lions slow start. Post-bye cobwebs. I'm more worried about the Lions MCG record. I tipped them for the flag at the start of the year, but went off them as the struggled at the MCG. Still think they should win... but Pies seem to keep finding a way, despite not being in the best form of the two