The Grand Final is perhaps the most tactically interesting game of the year, because we get to see the most-honed systems face off.
To get this far, you have to be the best collectives, and – apologies to Test footy and Origin – there’s no rep arena that has enough time to develop proper systems and coaching.
Rugby league is the most systematic of sports and these are the best two sides at getting their systems working over the longest period. Stick that on the poster, NRL.
We’re lucky this year in that we get 1 v 2, which is great, and also two highly contrasting approaches from Penrith and Brisbane.
It’s the best defence against the best attack, a high completion side against an adventurous team, a backs-first yardage machine against a forward-dominant middle, an offence designed around a lock against one built for a fullback.
Us nerds are in heaven here. Styles make fights and boy, do we have two contrasting styles.
The generals in charge are Ivan Cleary and Kevin Walters, with Nathan Cleary and Adam Reynolds clear lieutenants on the field.
But, perhaps, the most interesting players might be Isaah Yeo, the glue that holds the Panthers together, and Reece Walsh, the focal point for the Broncos. But what about Dylan Edwards, the most dependable spark for Penrith, or Payne Haas, the dominant force for Brisbane.
The coaches themselves knew the task ahead of them, between the systems and the strike.
“It’s easy,” said Walters when asked to identify the Panthers’ greatest strength. “They’ve been a good side for a long time and you’ve heard Ivan talk about it, they play the long game.
“They’re a ruthless side, they give you the whole lot. They’ve set the standard for the last four years on how to get to and win the Grand Final.”
Ivan’s response focused on the speed.
“They’re an extremely athletic team, very dynamic right across the park,” he said. “From all areas of the field, they’ve got a lot of strike power.
“They’re led by some pretty experienced players in Adam and (Kurt) Capewell, who have been excellent signings to steer that young side around and harness that athletic potential.”
Can the Broncos overwhelm the Panthers style?
Apologies if you’re a regular reader, because it’s probably getting a bit dull by now, but the thing about the Panthers is that they’ll make you play their game.
If you get into a high completions, high ball-in-play, washing machine type of game, then you’ll probably lose.
Scour their full strength defeats this year and you’ll notice this trend. Teams that don’t engage tend to do better.
The early year defeats to Saints and the Broncos, it were pretty low cohesion stuff in which the Panthers failed to get their good ball attack going, so we might be able to flush them for lack of relevance.
But there are guidelines. Multiple times against Parra (and, Saints, who consciously followed their blueprint), they were smashed in second phase and kicked to pieces, with the net effect that they were thrown off their usual possession and position game.
Against Souths, the Bunnies were genuinely better than them, through a combination of rugged defence and fearless, systematic attack, while also making the game as stop-start as possible.
Kotoni Staggs. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Against the Tigers – again, if we’re being honest, Saints again – there were cataclysmic conditions that induced massive variance into proceedings.
So what can the Broncos learn? Short of hoping Penrith simply don’t turn up or the weather intervenes, there are aspects they can control.
Brisbane should probably avoid the temptation to get into the grind for too long. It’s not that they’re not good at it – indeed, their transitional work on plays 1,2 and 5 were among their best aspects even last year – but they aren’t as good at it as Penrith are.
They need to change up that part of their game, likely more in terms of where they end their rather than how they start them.
The Panthers had 27 minutes in possession against Souths and 25 against the Tigers – compared to 38 against the Broncos in Round 12 – which, obviously, makes their pressure tactics more containable.
That’s easier said than done, of course, because Penrith are masters at getting through their business and forcing repeats and errors.
What Brisbane can control, however, is their starts and ends. In Round 1, the Broncos out-kicked the Panthers by more than 300m and in Parra’s early win, Mitch Moses topped 1,000m from the boot.
He knocked Edwards’ defusal rate as low as 73%. Penrith average 200m in kick return meres, but considerably lower in losses, because more balls hit the turf or cross the sideline.
If you’re Walters, you’ll likely be telling Reynolds to kick early and find the floor – or, simply, find touch. Make them bring it back under set conditions rather than engage in the cycle, especially if, as expected, it’s really hot on Sunday.
(Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
When and where to attack
Generating fatigue is what the Panthers are about, but they’re not immune to it themselves. When opponents have been able to move them around – either through second phase, like Parra, or laterally, like Souths – then they can be got at.
Brisbane will do the latter naturally, as that’s their game, and they need to maintain that element of their style throughout.
They have improved in the offloading stakes, too, and will need Payne Haas to be at his best, and for his teammates to be up around the ball when he gets the arm free.
Typically the Broncos have enjoyed getting , they can find joy by shifting to their left, where newly crowned Dally M Centre of the Year Herbie Farnworth will be attack and Izack Tago and Jarome Luai, both only recently back from injury, will be defending.
Conversely, the other edge will have Cleary, one of the best defensive halves around, and Stephen Crichton, the other Centre of the Year. They will not be so easily picked apart, and will have spent the last week watching the Broncos run their favourite pattern.
Disrupt the Panthers’ rhythm
We’ve mentioned how good the Broncos are on Plays 1 and 2, and what they can do on their kick play, whether that’s last tackle or before.
We’ve also mentioned their offload, and how they need to get that rolling to force Penrith to do more work in defence.
The final aspect is their Plays 3 and 4. This has been their major area of development in 2023 and where they can hope to extract the most strike against the Panthers.
Brisbane are not a side that needs to build pressure or generate field position to score, and they needn’t try to be now.
Their best moves come from mid-range, with confidence to go wide, get early ball to their centres, find space for Walsh to play and, crucially, allow him to make errors without fear.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
As much as going into the grind with Penrith is a strategic error, so is removing their own best elements through conservatism.
The Broncos can upset the Panthers’ rhythm by making the field as wide as possible – notably, something Parramatta also do – which can in turn help get Haas into one-man or two-man tackles and get that offload rolling. It also increases the likelihood of Reynolds getting better kicks away.
Most of all, it makes Walsh’s speed more of a factor. If the winger stay wide, the defenders have to spread out more, creating lanes for passes and greater distances between tacklers that Walsh can exploit. He’s done this all year, of course, and this is the fundamental plan of attack for Brisbane.
The greater question is how frequently they will be willing to run their plays, and how capable the Panthers are at defending them.
In their midseason clash – admittedly without Reynolds – the Broncos suffered a little in this regard.
Walsh got a season-high 43 touches of the ball, but only managed 16 runs, pretty much bang on his average. He did get a try assist, but off his boot, and if Walsh is kicking rather than running, the Panthers will be very happy indeed.
The Barry
Roar Guru
That’s another interesting aspect to this game Normally the pressure would be on the favourites who are going for their third straight premiership and the under dogs could approach it with a nothing to lose attitude But it really feels like the Broncos are the ones coming in under pressure Interesting to see how they approach that…
wilbas
Roar Rookie
that's true...I can cop being tackled on the last if a fair dinkum attempt to score happens..I get tired of worthless high kicks that are landing on the 20 metre line with no attacker arriving to challenge the ball...It is so hard to get through the defenders.. if you kick long and it goes dead then the defense is coming forward and they won't get a fast restart and be free...It use to be an art to pull a ball up in the in goal area...I'm not speaking close range kick but when you are on half way.
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
I read a recent story where Annersley was saying on the day of the GF, the NRL doctor and another NRL guy who manages the ground for that game, will take a series of scientific readings to determine the effects of the conditions on players. They will then make a call on the drinks break, or even whether to delay the match because conditions are too dangerous (can't see that happening). I also gather Clubs can apply to the NRL before matches during a season for drinks breaks, eg read about the Warriors thinking about that, prior to a trip to T'ville earlier in the season when it was a tad warm up north.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Nice to see you talking about the game for a change Still couldn’t post something without referencing me but hey you’re obsessed and it’s a start at least Forward battle, offloads, second phase play, compressing the defence… you bagged my comment earlier but you’ve just largely regurgitated what I wrote… 11 hours before you Anyway… here are a couple of my highlights from your comment (that you didn’t plagiarise from me) “If Edwards, To’o and Turuva can average less than 100 run metres each the Broncos will have won that battle.” The Panthers have lost five games this year. In all of their losses their back three not just averaged 100 run metres, they each ran over 100 metres. This point is irrelevant. Well done though it almost sounded like a stat. Win, lose or draw To’o, Edwards and Turuva will run over 100 metres each “The Broncos kick chase will need to be on point” Wow. Now we”re getting into some serious analysis. Tell me more “they need to show discipline to avoid penalties and set restarts.” Didn’t have to wait long for another gem. This is brilliant stuff. You left out “they should try not to drop the ball” and “don’t miss tackles” but maybe that’s to come “Offloads are key to second phase play opportunities but carry inherent risk” There’s that stunning insight again. Literally everyone who’s watched the Panthers lose this season has noted offloading and second phase play as key The Broncos CAN’T beat the Panthers if they play it safe and get into the grind playing the game that the Panthers want. Ditto. Reynolds should also look for opportunities to utilise short cross field kicks for his wingers The broncos rank 15th for tackles in the opposition 20. But who knows maybe after reading this Kevvie will change his teams whole attacking structure…? I love how you bagged my comments below for not being ‘game plan’ enough and then announced this drivel as some sort of tactical masterclass. It’s largely just copy paste of what I wrote It’s so funny and you’re soooooo weird. It’s sweet though…
The Barry
Roar Guru
I think running the ball on the last and getting caught ten out for a hand over is a valid tactic Defence can get set for that. It’s no different to a kick to a corner. Commentators incorrectly call it as a mistake The difference with the 20 metre 7 tackle set is that the team taking the tap is charging forward while the defence is racing backwards to get in position. It’s completely uncontrolled
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
The 'legend in his own mind’ tapped out. As I expected. Like I said, I like the idea of the Broncos kicking early and mixing up their kicking game. Especially the ploy to put the ball into touch deep in the Panthers 15 metre area to take the Panthers back 3 early yardage carries out of the equation. If Edwards, To'o and Turuva can average less than 100 run metres each the Broncos will have won that battle. The Broncos kick chase will need to be on point and they need to show discipline to avoid penalties and set restarts. In defence the Broncos have to turn the Panthers ball carriers around and avoid being caught in one on one defensive scenarios that lead to a quick play-the-ball. Hopefully the referee will ensure that the Panthers don't advance the ball either forward or diagonally off the mark to gain an advantage and catch the Broncos marker defence offside. They use this ploy to gain control of the play-the-ball and create holes around the ruck on a regular basis. As for your 3rd point that was a key strategy I highlighted in an earlier comment. This will have a major impact on the Panthers defence if successful. Walsh, Reynolds, Mam and Walters all need to be looking for second phase play opportunities. Ezra Mam is the player most under pressure to stand up IMO. The Panthers will have a game plan to suffocate Reynolds and Walsh but that focus will leave holes elsewhere. Mam should have plenty of one on one opportunities in attack and be free to follow lead runners looking for offloads. Offloads are key to second phase play opportunities but carry inherent risk. The Broncos CAN'T beat the Panthers if they play it safe and get into the grind playing the game that the Panthers want. The Broncos need to play direct early and dominate the Panthers through the middle-third before they look to shift the ball wide. The Broncos need to attack in behind the ruck with outside in runs off the dummy half attracts the marker defence. They have to upset the Panthers defensive rhythm. Also, when attacking the third in defender there will an opportunity for the centre on either side of the field to play under while Walsh is sweeping wide. An under play is likely to find holes in the Panthers sliding defence as the edge defender slides to support his centre tracking Walsh's line of attack. If the Broncos can roll through the Panthers middle-third defence the Panthers defence will compress and opportunities will open up out wide. Early on Walsh's sweeping outside runs in block plays will be more effective as a decoy if the Broncos play under to one of their centres or throw a cut out pass to the winger with Walsh free as an inside support. Reynolds should also look for opportunities to utilise short cross field kicks for his wingers, primarily Cobbo. Then near the line Reynolds needs to exploit the height mismatch between Cobbo and Turuva. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities for the Broncos from that attacking play alone.
blacktown leagues
Roar Rookie
I may be wrong BG but I think all parties have to agree to drink breaks after 20 otherwise it doesn't happen.Great if someone can clarify
wilbas
Roar Rookie
Warrior tried two man stand up but HAAS and FLEGLER Just kept rolling forward and then got balls away...You see the high method gives yardage most runs but the eventual legs tackler and three men manage ridiculous slow play the balls...That is the mindset but when you have a Corey Parker type player who can lower their center of balance...like Munster does...AND they slip a ball away it will rip half a lung out of the defense every time...I say grab the ball and second man in and drop them..a small price to pay compared to getting a new arsehole ripped by what Fleger and Haas did.
Nat
Roar Guru
It’s been a pretty mild winter up here and quite a few late 20s days already. Not that Reece needed an excuse to whip the shirt off at training.
Nat
Roar Guru
It is a fine art these days to tackle low but have another up top to stop the offload and quick PTB. Done well, ala Jurbo, it is as effective weapon that can nullify a big man.
Albo
Roar Rookie
My "game plan" for the weekend will be to watch the Ryder Cup tonight and tomorrow along with the Races tomorrow also, and then the Footy all day Sunday . I can't be more specific than that, except I think my wife might be a tad filthy by Monday ! :laughing:
wilbas
Roar Rookie
Walsh seems to float these balls out to the wing and when he is passing to the left it hangs a bit.Warriors were on to it and snaffled one but should have been content and stayed spread but their winger was either greedy or lazy and came in which played into Broco's hands.
The Barry
Roar Guru
“Game plan” hahahaha… So touched you want to interview me Why don’t you give your game plan instead of stalking me… Champ
Redcap
Roar Guru
Actually Baz, I've got some questions for you since you're in the mood ( :happy: ): 1. What is the answer to the ultimate question of life the universe and everything? Come to think of it, what's the actual question supposed to be? 2. How could we fix the Israel-Palestine situation? 3. How can governments continue to afford 'economic growth' - i.e. continue to build infrastructure and maintain existing infrastructure, continue to expand service systems, increase housing supply, encourage innovation and regulate emerging industries - without increasing taxation? 4. What's up with Phil Rothfield, and I mean what combination of social, psychological and environmental dysfunction created whatever he is?
wilbas
Roar Rookie
For one I don't know why coaches have this mortal fear of a 7 tackle restart...with tackle count restarts happening left right and center and coaches allowing their side to give an extra tackle on the 1st to slow sides down then why not kick long and low into the corners...Why all these high kicks that are shepherded by the players protecting the catcher of the ball...So many times the ball goes up and nobody meets the man catching the ball on their 25 metre line....kick long and who cares if one goes dead...we are seeing 18 tackle sets today and we fear a seven tackle set. The two front rowers of the Bronco's have to be stopped dead...The Warriors tried to man handle Haas and Flegler are easy meat if you are prepared to swallow your medicine and drop them low and quick....With the Warriors they tried to hold them up and slow their play the ball and both made huge post contact meterage and both unloader which shredded the Warriors defence.. It is hard enough to get back ten when you meet them on the advantage line...When forwards continue after contact the whole defense has to work overtime and this exhaust your petrol supply. So get low onto their legs and drop them...These Corey Parker style players must be dropped.The Warriors failed miserably to achieve this and the not kiwi style of football they played of one out hit ups is rubbish.You can not play safety first football against masters of that style. You have to chance your arm...be prepared to unload and back your defence if you make an error.Just playing percentage football like NSW and Paul Gallen did for a decade was the greatest tactical blunder of that decade. Same here with Penrith.
Full Credit to the Boys
Roar Rookie
It will be interesting to see. There is a slight chance that the pressure is just so great the Broncos system melts down. I think that scenario is far less likely for the Panthers given their finals experience.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
It won't be 35 degrees when they play though. More like 28 odd I believe. Lucky no sun will be hitting the Pennies black playing strip.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
I like your first 2 options jimmmy. You raise some good additional points as well but before I go into my ideas I'm waiting for 'the legend in his own mind' to pick up the gauntlet and take up my challenge.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
We can analyse this game till the Cows come home but in the end the Broncs unfortunately still have to play the Panthers.
Full Credit to the Boys
Roar Rookie
The comments show the level of analysis that has emerged because of the phenomena of outlets like the Roar. This all reads like informed insightful sports journalism. In the absence of those skills I'll just give a good old UP THE PANTHERS!