PARIS – Breathe easy Australia, you won’t be bowing out in the pool stage of the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
Your passage through to the knockout stage was confirmed on Tuesday.
Not because of any great recovery on the international stage, nor restructuring or alignment, but because of the World Rugby Council’s decision to essentially undermine the pool stage of the World Cup.
By increasing the World Cup to 24 nations, where there will be six pools of four, missing the knockout stages will be virtually impossible. Even for the Wallabies.
The top two of each of the six pools as well as the four highest third-place finishers will qualify for the round of 16. It means only eight international teams will miss the knockout stages.
You can already predict at least 12 of the sides that will progress to the last 16 – the Six Nations representatives, Rugby Championship sides, Fiji and Japan.
While the expansion sounds great in theory, in reality, it will devalue the opening four weeks of the competition, which will do more harm than good.
Remember the All Blacks’ 96-17 win over Italy in Lyon?
Or France’s 60-7 thrashing of Italy a week later?
Italy are likely to make the knockout stage of the World Cup for the first time following World Rugby’s decision to expand the 2027 tournament. (Photo by Paul Harding/Getty Images)
Chalk up Italy for their maiden knockout match in four years’ time.
Ireland should even win their first one, too.
Australia? Well, having missed the pool stage for the first time after a historic first loss to Fiji in 69 years and a heavy loss to Wales, they will progress too.
Ditto, Scotland.
But wasn’t that the great aspect of the pool stage in 2023?
The Wallabies – a two-time World Cup-winner – missed the quarter-finals for the first time as they watched and waited and sweated on the outcome of Fiji and Portugal.
Scotland, who missed the knockout stage in 2019 when Japan made their maiden quarter-final, missed the knockout stages too. They were ranked fifth in the world coming into the tournament.
Even in 2015, the World Cup in Britain was rocked when England failed to progress to the knockout stage.
Their opponents in the pool stage were Australia, Wales, Fiji and Uruguay – it was considered the group of death and, indeed, proved to be for England.
But World Rugby’s decision to expand the tournament to 24 teams and introduce a round of 16 has devalued the pool stage. In many respects, it has cheapened the round of 16, too.
The drama – and consequence – will be taken away from the opening month of the World Cup.
The Wallabies shouldn’t have any difficulty progressing out of the pool in 2027 following World Rugby’s expansion. (Photo by Andrew Matthews/PA Images via Getty Images)
Fans can skip the opening four weekends of seven because it will be nothing but cricket scores and snooze fests. The quality will be spread to thin across the six pools.
Remember last weekend’s first semi-final?
The world switched off when the All Blacks hammered Los Pumas to progress to the World Cup final. That was after 42 minutes.
What will they think when there’s no jeopardy in the opening month? It will like watching a Big Bash match with no meaning other than individual performances and injury watch.
The Wallabies, Scotland and Italy could still lose two matches and comfortably make the final 16. That’s not right.
In reality, the expansion has been made to ensure the North American representatation in 2027 after there was none this year.
With the United States listed to host the 2031 World Cup (they could still be stripped of hosting the tournament in the absence of government funding), missing out on the 2027 tournament would be a disaster.
That’s not to say that World Rugby is wrong because not tapping into a country of the size of the United States would be negligent.
But by doing so, the pool stage has been devalued.
In the same way that Super Rugby’s integrity has been lost by having eight teams progress through to the finals in a 12-team competition, 16 out of 24 in a World Cup is absurd.
Several questions remain about the Nations Cup despite World Rugby chairman Bill Beaumont and chief executive Alan Gilpin celebrating the dawn of a new era on October 24, 2023 in Paris. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Meanwhile, the Nations Championsh still has several questions that remain unanswered.
Despite the new competition being celebrated by World Rugby figures (and Rugby Australia ones too), serious questions remain over just whether tier-one sides will keep their word and play their lesser cousins in years outside the new tournament.
Without anything set in stone and signed, there’s still a lot of wriggle room for the tier-one sides to back out.
“No agreement has been signed, principles agreed on how those fixtures can be allocated but a lot more work to do,” World Rugby chief executive Alan Gilpin admitted on Tuesday afternoon.
“A lot of this process was getting to today, getting to a decision in principle for this competition models and recognising these competition models don’t take effect until 2026.
“The next six months is really working with regions, stakeholders to nail down those details based on pre-agreed principles.”
In theory, the Nations Championship, which promises meaningful Tests with consequences and promotion and relegation starting in 2030, is something that will benefit the game.
Indeed, it is a product the respective Unions can sell to broadcasters and something the fans, in time, will be able to understand given the consequences of the tournament as opposed to random series or one-off Tests.
But the tier-one sides could easily walk away from their commitment with tier-two sides and who would hold them accountable, especially when money talks?
How the promotion and relegation is rolled out remains unknown for now, too.
Is it one or two teams? And if it’s one, how does that impact the balance between the six sides from the north and the south?
Progress was made in Paris in the middle of autumn.
A move to a global calendar is something to celebrate.
But the detail – something Australian rugby fans are used to not seeing – surrounding the Nations Championship and alternate years remains far from crystal clear.
The tier-one Unions owe it to their tier-two partners that they hold each other to account.
Fox
Roar Guru
No of course not Ben - I meant the Competition will just drag on with more team in it - many of whom will be nothing more than cannon fodder for the big guns.
Mike
Roar Rookie
Four pools = 20 years ago when there were only 8 top teams. Now Scotland at #5 gets KO'd early, France and Ireland also KO'd and England gets a rails run to 3rd playing Argentina twice! I suggest the comments overlook the extensive RWC qualification process. Agree Super has lost the plot with almost everyone in finals but RWC has taken four years to determine who plays. True, seeing Portugal play 4 games was exciting though. Can't accommodate everything at RWC I guess. Should see these teams at other times too.
Craig McLeod
Roar Rookie
Underwhelming? Did you not watch any of the Quarter finals? And no - the 2 best and in form teams were not knocked out early. They are in the final - that is how tournaments work. All of the hand wringing about cricket scores and devaluing progressing from the pool - so what? Are we hung up on the value of progressing from the pool because we failed to at this tournament? Making the quarters/semis will still be the mark of the better teams, and the 'Tier 2' nations will see more wins at the tournament. Fair price to pay.
vonManstein
Roar Rookie
Yeah yeah ok Phil... I'll admit the Dnieper was not my finest hour.. but I was practically hung out to dry by the bossman. Still, and what's important here, is that opportunities multiply as they are seized.
Phil McKraken
Roar Rookie
Come on Von Manstein you of all people should know the number 1 Military dictum “Never overextend your forces”
Phil McKraken
Roar Rookie
It’s almost as if the Unions and World Rugby officials are on the secret payroll of V’landys and undermining Rugby from within. This World Cup has been underwhelming to say the least with the two best and in form sides Ireland and France being knocked out in the Quarters with a ridiculous draw. Now these decisions quite frankly are ludicrous, the new Championship a mini World Cup- too much International Rugby, the complete end of traditional tours except Lions, the expansion of the number of Teams for the next World Cup the final straw. Too much of anything is a bad thing as you risk killing the Golden Goose and International Rugby is the last Golden Goose.
Ben Pobjie
Expert
Me personally?
vonManstein
Roar Rookie
I think the idea of spreading the games reach is not only commendable, but vital. Sure the format will need tinkering, but what rugby lover in their right mind could possibly be against broadening the games horizons?
Good Game
Roar Rookie
I like it. There would be some snoozefests but that final week of pool play would be exciting. Let's say only 6 to 8 teams have qualified leading up to the last week of the pools. Knowing that anywhere between 8 to 10 teams still in it makes for a fascinating final week. Assuming points diff would be the next tie breaker after points, there would be a massive emphasis on good defence throughout the tournament. (Or maybe it might be something novel and arbitrary like boundary count back - thats sure to go down well).
Diamond Jackie
Roar Rookie
What is more critical is at what time are the rankings dished out and hence the draw finalised. It was done for this World Cup years ago and hence we lost Ireland and France too early and had a very lopped sided draw.
Fox
Roar Guru
How long and tedious to you want to be for goodness sake Ben?
Highlander
Roar Guru
Been carrying a niggle the entire comp The video of him limping off the training field doing the rounds is from before the Italy game
Jacko
Roar Rookie
He's been interviewing for the 2028-2031 period Merlin. LOL
Ben Pobjie
Expert
Why not a 32-team WC? Eight groups of four. Top two from each group goes through, plus the top four third-ranked teams, plus the top four of those who didn’t qualify for the top-four third-ranked teams, plus the top four “lucky losers” plus four wildcards. These qualifiers then go through to the knockout round of 32, from which 16 progress, and then the best eight losers play the repechage round, the winners of that playing the best four of the worst eight losers. From that point on I think the process is self-explanatory.
Merlin
Roar Rookie
Japan are guaranteed progression ???? Wait! hes not their coach in 2027?
Tim J
Roar Rookie
I like the concept as initially in the first couple of RWC there will be some big scores like in any World Cup in other sports, but the lower teams will progress with added sponsorship plus experience. The Cricket World Cup Afghanistan and Holland have caused upsets, the Football World Cup upsets happen also. Tier 1 Nations need to play against Tier 2 ones to help with experience and finances with the money shared, they should play the Tier 2 Nations at their home stadiums for engagement and promotion of the game in those countries. The RWC can be like the Football World Cup with 16 teams in the finals, you just need to look at how the men’s Football team have improved over the years. Bringing up teams losing by large margins is not always accurate, NZ have beaten Japan in the earlier years by scoring over 130 points and now Japan have become respected with their progression. The proposed format would help teams to manage injuries more effectively also, and teams can play the squad to have more effective options for later in the tournament. A big factor would be that players would stay with their home country knowing that they can represent their Nation in the biggest tournament, they can still play elsewhere for club Rugby but be back for representation.
Ballymore Brumby
Roar Pro
The Doran logic this week: There should be more rugby, we need to be more inclusive! The Doran logic next week: There’s to much rugby, you’re diluting the product!
Jacko
Roar Rookie
I see great opportunity for A games v these teams in any year. NZXV and Aus A would give them great opposition and experience.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
The Tier 2 comp really backs that up too ATW. In 8 years time the minnows may not be the minnows they are today but maybe 2027 is a bit early. I like it tho.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Side the issue is that the Ireland decider was a rare event. Most series are done and dusted after 2 games. Also they can have series in the non WC year between the Champions cup.