Don't mention the war chest: NRL gearing up for rugby raid makes strategic sense but won’t change much

and that is the hard past.

You might be right in which case good luck to him. It might also be the case that he said that as a bit of a kid to a major sponsor and imposing figure in Politis, telling him what he wants hear. Only time will tell. Its just when I heard that comment, alarm bells started ringing.

I've got no doubt he only went across for the money, but that's why I also think he will go to Japan and or France after RWC27.

"As Paul says, the NRL doesn’t need RU players. They have plenty of talent in the pool" To a point yes, but the NRL has just added an extra team plus V'landys has made no secret that he wants to expand the NRL. An eighteenth team is only an announcement away and with sufficient talent coming down the pipeline, a 20 team comp may be with us before we know it. The NRL is gaining global recognition even if RL itself is not. Most of that has been on the back of Origin but it would only take some backroom deal with an American TV/betting company to turn that up a notch. V'landys recently attended a White House dinner and rubbed shoulders with Biden but he said afterwards that it was the networking opportunity with people at that dinner that might prove the most useful for the NRL. If V sees money in it, he will expand the NRL rapidly and source players from everywhere to do it.

Only if "do nothing" is the best strategic answer. However if the best strategic answer for RA is to do nothing, it can only be because everything in RA is going so swimmingly well.

"Suallii (who, we’ve been assured by Politis, will be returning to the Roosters after the next RWC)" If that is a genuine sentiment expressed Suaalli, then that should be a very worrying situation for RA and not just because of Suaalli but because of what it says about a player's perception of both codes. It also says that the only reason that Suaalli signed with RA was $$$$. It also says that the lad has seen something in the NRL that he knows RA cannot offer him and he wants to get back to it. Of course, the experience of a RWC might change his opinions of all that but it is worrying.

The League salary is club salary only, if a player is that good and can adapt to league you could be looking at Origin/Rep payments on top of that plus any sponsorship but that cuts both ways to some extent.

Do you see the issue with you holding up a market of 15 million as Rugby League’s, to all of Europe which is supposedly rugby territory? It’s not reality. I agree that Rugby League’s primary market in Australia is effectively confined to the east coast. But by your logic where you’ve converted Western Europe as rugby territory- why couldn’t all of Australia be classified as rugby league territory or even the potential future market? It can’t because there are barriers that exist for a sport to move freely across a landscape and become entrenched with some depth in different communities. You’re talking about impacting culture and national or regional identity- it’s not easy. I’m well aware of Europe’s market size and rugby’s growth prospects globally and in Europe which are exciting. I’m also under no illusions when it comes to rugby league’s standing against that. But the reality is that the NRL generates the most revenue of all rugby football competitions globally. It’s broadcast revenue (professional sports golden goose) is worth around $600m annually. The Top14’s broadcast deal is worth about a third of that. You shoot down the NRL’s growth prospects yet its current deal is worth about 40% more than the last one, while the Top14’s increase from last to current represented a bump of 17%.

Some great comments and yes you are in large part correct. Rugby will always be behind Football across Europe - but to generate large sums it does not have to. When you have just in UK, Ireland and France a combined population of circa 120 Million and in which in their market rugby is probably 2nd followed winter sports. That is a very large pool of people in a high income society which is very attractive to sponsor's and TV rights. Recent WC in France generated a 40 Million Euro profit for French Rugby and think 450 Million profit for WR - the ticket sales alone were worth over 200 million Euro. When you then consider that the League WC had to be cancelled due to France pulling out due to cost structure.... Then you look at the NRL and yip - it has locked in QLD/NSW etc - but unlike Europe how and where does it grow - Pacific I's, PNG or more clubs in an already saturated market - Brisbane? And then there is the issue that as more clubs are added the quality will drop away as there are question marks over if their is a sufficient player base to support that number of professional players/clubs. So in terms of trajectory - for me it's pretty clear that whilst NSW/QLD will always be NRL heartland, ALF commands the rest of Oz - Vic etc, Rugby holds sway in NZ (League faces an impossible task in ever overtaking the code there). Vs a sports that has room to grow into a very high income society - effectively over time hard to see how NRL can retain pay pariety (noting challenges NZ and Oz rugby have in retaining player base due to Jpn/Europe) given how can a market of 10-15 odd million generate income to match Europe/Jpn? It's not which sports is better but rather just basic economic realities

I’m not ‘so protective and somehow think NRL has a major footprint’. Have a look at my name… I love rugby league but no prizes for guessing what my #1 code of choice is. Rugby’s global growth is exciting and you’ll find no greater cheerleader when it comes to that than yours truly. I’m just realistic and if it was as simplistic as you’re making it out to be and purely a numbers and disposable income game- both the Premiership and the Top14 would be ballparks ahead of the NRL. They’re not- are you ‘that protective’ to believe otherwise? They may operate in markets twice Australia’s size but their penetration of significant depth doesn’t run the entire width of those markets. While Rugby League’s heartland is effectively confined to the east coast of Australia, you’ll find very few places in Europe that have the depth of following and almost unhindered attention that NSW/QLD has for rugby league. Even in a place like the south of France that arguably contributes the highest concentration of European rugby’s revenue, the game still plays second-fiddle to soccer. Furthermore, while it’s growing in markets outside of the European powerhouses, it’s still very much a niche player in most of those places and stratospheres behind soccer (and no I’m not a round-ball groupie before you jump to that conclusion).

Ah no - as seen by the recent WC in France and the strength of rugby via the 6 Nations - their is a very large and more importantly high income earning part of the population spread from Portugal - through UK/Ireland and then into France and Italy. That very sizable part of the population is worth a lot of money - feel free to disagree but harsh economic realities will have their way. Then interesting description of "heartlands, pockets of some interest and big bare patches of nothing" - Just scratch my head when people are just so protective and somehow think NRL has a major footprint - when the next NRL club potentially to be launched is in PNG..... Unfortunately however, however much people want to cheer their sports on simple economic realities will intrude into the discussion and as I stated above - it's very hard to see how a small sporting comp based out of NSW/QLD and Ackld is going to be able to seriously challenge in the pay stakes in rugby in Europe and Japan - in both short but more importantly long term. I mean as you state yourself "heartlands, pockets of some interest and big bare patches of nothing" - which utilizing your words means in a popluation of 300 million there is a huge opportunity to both continue to grow the sports and accordingly income vs. exactly where and how does the NRL grow itself commerically - PNG?

In theory that is right. It’s hard to see how Aust keeps up with the global reach and finances available to the premier comps. It also has a lot to do with the popularity in their respective regions. TBH Japan is a bit of a bubble. Right now it’s privately funded in an attempt to grow the game on the back of their WC. In reality it is not top 10 sports in the country. The figures on whether it is standing on its own is not publicly available. That leaves the Nth hemisphere, or really France (because premier rugby only has a few viable clubs). Ireland and Scotland pay well at the elite level but it’sa long drop to the average and below the NRL. South Africa and France going well, paid well but will always be a distant 2nd to Soccer. If the NRL gets 3m viewers it’s more than 12% off the entire population so broadcasters pay accordingly. When the NRL have clubs in the western states as well as NZ 2.0 the opportunity for poach the best NZ youngsters is very high and they get to stay at home.

‘300 odd million vs 15 in NSW/Qld’- that’s really not an apples and apples comparison there. You’ve cherry picked the market size of RL’s heartland states and held it up to basically Western Europe. Do you really believe 300m accurately reflects the market that rugby has captured in Europe? By this logic, MLR should be streaks ahead of the pack of rugby competitions globally. Even the greatest optimist wouldn’t pit rugby’s growth on a trajectory that’s likely to capture a third of that market. In that 300m it has heartlands, pockets of some interest and big bare patches of nothing. Market penetration and realistic future penetration is far more relevant than simply holding markets of contrasting sizes up to one and other.

I've no problem with your comment TWAS. I agree with it. But I would add another parameter. I live in the Greater Brisbane Area. And there's almost no promotion of rugby up here. For example, a sports fan here could be forgiven for not knowing that there's been a RWC. And it's not just RA who doesn't fight for media coverage. There was no promotion of the Hospitals Cup at Ballymore this year. Or last year. Or for club games. So the QRU is no better. I live a half hour walk from our local district rugby club. The QRU doesn't seem to do anything for them. In fact, our local Council has done a lot for them by comparison. I don't think rugby is dying. But it's getting close to being placed in an Intensive Care Unit.

Yea personally when you look at the realitive size of the economies and that the likes of France is linked into the Great European Economy - 300 odd million vs 15 in NSW/Qld - hard not to see how in the coming years a gap will grow. That's why if someone asked me the risks to NZ rugby of players decamping to other comps - I would be putting the NRL 3rd behind Japan and Nth Hemisphere.

That’s the thing, this conversation was specifically about props. The examples given so far don’t exceed NRL at all and given the sample size Union has means NRL stands tall. Of course play makers earn more just as they do in NRL. Granted there are no $2m salaried players there are half a dozen between $1.2 & $1.5. They, too, have allowances for cars, accommodation, education and then we get into TPAs. A few years back when Melbourne had a number of stars their TPAs exceeded $1m. Reynolds in Brisbane - over $200k. However, we are talking the very top here for both codes. We were dial back to averages the NRL is well on par with the biggest rugby comps around the world at +$400k. You read some Union pundits proclaim about these kids going OS to earn more, it’s just not true. The base OS is much lower and the competition to get into a 1st grade team is higher so to even teach the average is a much harder task. That’s if they want to move OS to pursue their game in the first place.

There’s also not many rugby forwards on more than $1.2m. Tino’s Titans upgrade is around Haas’ salary too. In any event- there’s some strange definitions of ‘dwarfs’ floating around here. The original comment was ‘decent tight head prop they are one of highest paid players in European rugby which the payday dwarfs any pay nrl or rugby in this part of the world’. Well the highest paid THP in the world is on comparable money to the highest paid League forward- that’s before expanding it out to include League backs which would capture the full intent of the original comment. Even if you do want to peel it back to be like-for-like, Itoje seems to be the highest paid rugby forward on around $1.4m. An extra $200k isn’t exactly ‘dwarfing’ the highest league forward salary in my book and this is before the likes of Ponga, Munster and Cleary are included in the conversation (which while not forwards, are relevant in the context of the initial comment).

it dwarfs most NRL forwards salaries..... look at what Payne Haas had to go through to get a decent upgrade (that falls short of these numbers) and he is the best forward in the NRL by a mile.

The NRL players association should ask the ACCC to look at this. Perhaps, by offering an exemption from the salary cap for select players, the NRL is suppressing the market value of other players artificially under the salary cap. Either way a loyal NRL player might be tempted to test their price in rugby or at the very least would want to see a healthy rugby code as a viable option to support their own worth in negotiation with the NRL. Perhaps that is the ultimate goal of the NRL, destroy rugby so they can pay players less in the future. The flaw in this of course is that rugby's strength globally will always see the best earnings opportunities in either code continue to exist offshore.... in rugby union..... be careful what you wish for!

The salary cap is a skewed view though. Because it doesn't consider Wallaby top ups. Realistically there is probably close to $15M in Wallaby top ups spread across the five franchises. The number of teams and fringe contracts is where the NRL kills rugby.