Ten predictions for NRL season 2024: Surprise Origin picks, coaching changes and the Eels return to finals football

Rob, that’s why it’s such a conundrum, nothings simple. Travel is unfair on the cowboys and Warriors. As in the AFL with the likes of collingwood, most of the Sydney clubs only travel a few times a year & only long trips once or twice. Broncos, Raiders & Storm only have a short commute but sleeping in your own bed is important to recovery. That’s offset by a good home draw. Still don’t fancy Perth, too many saffers who don't like league.

Aust Gov commitment will have to exceed $60m per year (on top of the nearly $600m they deliver in aid money annually). PNG team may get $60m of funding but surely each other NRL team will put their hand out as well! $60m to PNG. $2m to each of the other 17 NRL clubs. The NRLC will want some too. So $94m per year minimum. 10 year outlay of $940m for a team that is likely to struggle to recruit top players, coaches and get results. As much as Olam, Johnston and co would want to help their countrymen they also want to have success. Likely that a PNG team wouldn’t make the finals in that 10 year period. They’ll also be retired or close to if they get a team in. Remove the geo-political aspect and this makes 0% sense from RL perspective. Last time I checked China don’t have an NRL competition and if they turn up with a bigger pot of money then PNG / Aust relationship is then leveraged further. “Gifting” someone a team that’s not ready is detrimental to the product that is NRL. PVL comes from the gambling industry so surely he’d know this is a low percentage play. The biggest crime is not giving someone a licence, it’s taking it off them when all the evidence points to it failing in the first place.

That is an interesting fact, but it's hard to say whether it is the travel or the salary cap. This year the Panthers are minus Crichton, Leniu, Cogger and Salmon due to the salary cap. Add in Staines, Kikau, Capewell, Momoroski, Tetavano, and Korasaiu and if the Panther's don't win this year is it because of the trip to Wigan, or the salary cap? There is a reason teams struggle to win back to back and a trip to the UK is only one factor.

No argument from me that 10+ hour flights across multiple timezones aren’t going to have an effect on player, and therefor team performance. I’ve read studies that say as much. But those effects being felt for up to 5 weeks (when the Vegas teams start playing those that didn’t travel and a disadvantage could be exposed)- I haven’t seen anything that suggests the direct impact has that sort of longevity. As for the impact having a year-long effect, I think that’s absurd.

There has been a ton of reports and studies done and mostly the conclusions are subjective. Performance of athletes are often influenced by intangible markers such as confidence, mood or emotion, so it is hard to determine the influence travel also has on results. The stuff I have read, pretty much all agree the greatest detrimental impact is felt during the period 3-6 days after travelling through more than three time zones. There is a genuine challenge for coaching squads to get the travel prep right, it certainly has the potential to create some negative momentum.

The problem seems to be that the logical expansion in a ‘heartland’ region doesn’t make economic sense and the economically sensible expansion to gain new fans doesn’t appear viable long term. I’m sceptical of going to Perth, full of South African expats who have rugby union dna & will never follow league. PNG, locked into Australian government aid funding, is a bit scary. Conferences also don’t excite me, you always end up with one strong and another weaker as well as it resulting in a return to a Sydney centric mentality. I don’t see an answer, it will end up a manufactured outcome.

The noise about them missing out on recruitment is way over the top. They genuinely missed out on AFB for 2025, someone who they actually negotiated with and put forward an offer to. The subsequent stories about Dearden and Welsby were just fluff, Flanagan had said he would be interested in them if they were available. They weren't. Last year was poor and there's little reason to think they're suddenly going to become contenders. New coach, some developing players though - seems more likely they go back to their long-term average position at the back of the mid-table rather than spoon. Also Dragons don't do spoons....

‘The rugby game’ is not poor in New Zealand. You’re assuming the state of the game here applies across the ditch. Just not the case.

Pacifika team in Cairns maybe? Could set up a good local derby with the Cows. Revive the old Foley Shield hostilities at NRL level...

I’m not interested in ‘data’ connecting participation in the WCC and success the following season. I’m sorry but that’s nothing more than an assumption you’re making. Where is there physiological data that suggests the side effects of international travel are still felt on an elite athlete for an entire season (or even as long as 5 weeks)?

I'd like that, but unlikely :happy:

Roosters & Knights to miss the Top 8........Roosters GF, highly unlikely mate.

ha ha! But I haven't been saying that for ten years have I?? point of difference, see you in October... :)

True, and it's like the 'Melbourne will fade this year' claims. But this year they pumped up the wingers and while that might seem a small deal, winger yardage is valuable.

Hey Scott, I forgot about the SGI imbroglio however the fact remains Storm signed him as an "assistant" a year before he could work for them and Easts paid him to do nothing because he was still under contract. He wasn't "let go", because he had a contract. Easts made the decision, as many employers do to pay them out rather than have them around. That was East's choice to make and clearly they took it personally. I can't remember but who was the last Assistant Coach signed a season and a half before they could go to work? Players? Plenty but Coaches not so much.

There’s data to suggest that the impact of international travel can be felt for as long as almost 5 weeks (the first time they’d come up against a team that didn’t have that burden) after the fact? I’d be interested to see that data (genuinely).

For sure Cam. Not saying it won’t have an impact but I don’t think they’ll be disadvantaged to any meaningful degree given how the NRL have planned it. Super Rugby was a whole other level where travel across multiple timezones was the norm and I don’t think that burden can really be compared to the fairly controlled way the NRL have gone about it with these 4 teams and a split round Vegas trip.