It’s not just the Melbourne Rebels’ Australian rivals that are queuing up to pounce on its players but cashed-up overseas sides, too.
For the best part of two months, the question many influential figures in Australian rugby have been quietly asking is what is the future of the Melbourne Rebels?
Last week, as the Rebels’ finances had a spotlight shined on them, that question became a matter of urgency as the franchise moved closer to voluntary administration.
While the entire Rebels squad has been given assurances they will play in the opening round of the competition later next month and paid for the entire season, beyond 2024 Rugby Australia (RA) can’t guarantee their future.
It’s why the Rebels’ playing group are looking at their options.
The clock is ticking for Rugby Australia to determine the Melbourne Rebels’ path, with several parties interested in Taniela Tupou and his Rebels teammates. Photo: Melbourne Rebels
Already rivals, including the other four Australian Super Rugby franchises, are getting ready to pick the bones of the Rebels’ carcass.
RA has let it be known that they want to provide the Rebels – and the wider Australian rugby community – clarity to ensure they give everyone time to plan.
Indeed, unlike the drawn-out shemozzle in 2017, where the then-Australian Rugby Union’s “48-72 hour” decision on who to keep out of the Rebels and Western Force turned into four months, it’s expected that RA – if they have not already – will reach their conclusion on the Rebels’ sustainability by the end of the month.
But with an estimated $10 million in debt and RA in no position to bail out the franchise, as they look at solutions to solve their own high performance and financial challenges, it seems the Rebels are on borrowed time.
Should the Rebels fold, it leaves RA with some decisions to make, especially how they plan to fill the rest of the Australian Super Rugby sides on the eve of the British and Irish Lions touring Down Under. But the clock is ticking, and RA knows it.
Making the task all the more difficult is new Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt barely has his feet under the desk and doesn’t know the playing group, while Peter Horne has yet to officially start his role as director of high performance.
It means making a judgement on a player, and their worth, is more complicated than meets the eye.
RA CEO Phil Waugh and new Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt have some decisions to make. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
While several players of national interest, including Taniela Tupou and Rob Leota have signed top-up deals through to the end of 2025, their deals could be blown up should the Rebels be culled.
The question is whether they want that?
Tupou, who is on an estimated $1.2m, could well want to remain in Australian rugby given his favourable contract, but RA, cash-strapped, could also see it as a way to relieve some financial stress if there is interest from the tight-head prop who is attracting major interest across the world, including in France.
But the 27-year-old is also one of the most marketable figures in the game and, should he get back to full fitness soon, could develop into one of the best props in the world.
For the Waratahs, who have Wallabies loose-head prop Angus Bell, it could prove a game-changer to have both Test front-rowers at the franchise a stone’s throw away from Rugby Australia’s main office in Moore Park, and in the country’s biggest market.
The Force, who have Andrew Forrest as a financial backer, could also emerge as a destination for some of the Rebels’ best players, including Tupou.
Others like Carter Gordon and Josh Canham are being closely looked at.
Gordon, 23, struggled at the World Cup in his rookie season as an international playmaker but was Australia’s best fly-half by a country mile during last year’s Super Rugby season and will likely get better.
It’s believed the playmaker’s preference is to stay at home, but he, like Tupou, is also attracting interest.
Andrew Kellaway (L) is already off to the NSW Waratahs, while Carter Gordon is off contract at season’s end. (Photo by Peter Meecham/Getty Images)
Then, of course, there is Canham, who was due to play for Australia A last year and looks a Wallaby-in-waiting but suffered a concussion at training in France.
The 23-year-old is one of the most exciting young locks in the country and his attitude and ability to free his arms is something that has observers excited, especially with second-rowers highly sought after globally.
Lukhan Salakaia-Loto is another who is being looked at closely, but the 2019 World Cup Wallaby isn’t on a national top-up and is thought to be on a deal around $650,000. That’s a lot of money for another Super side to pick up.
With the Lions to play Australia’s Super Rugby franchises before three Tests, the strengthening of the sides would be a massive shot in the arm for the cash-strapped game. It’s something RA is aware of.
It means fixtures that were being viewed as one-sided affairs could become entertaining clashes.
That extends to the Wallabies, with the idea of Super Rugby form transferring onto the international stage.
“Here the big fix is in Super Rugby, it’s not at the national level,” said Michael Cheika, whose successful 2014 Waratahs side formed the bulk of the Wallabies team a year later when they made the World Cup final, this week on the Bye Round podcast.
“If I was them [RA], I’d be investing everything in trying to get the best coaches to get Super Rugby going.
“There’s no coincidence that when our teams go well in Super Rugby our national team performs well, especially at World Cups.
“I’d be throwing as many eggs as I can in the Super Rugby basket and get those teams preforming at a higher level, competing with Kiwi teams regularly, winning games so that then a national coach picks up a team that’s got confidence, that’s got some skills that’s been delivered for them in the build up through the preseason and they’re fit and ready to go.”
FunBus
Roar Rookie
:laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing:
Guest
Roar Rookie
You’re pathetic, such a cliche for why people hate English sports fans, come on to gloat to one of the few countries you still can? Oh well, I’ll maybe head over to an English forum and post pictures of the Calcutta Cup, getting quite cosy here in Edinburgh.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
I certainly never claimed they were all Victorians but quite simply in a city approaching 5 mil population its not too hard to see 1% follow a different sport and another 1% follow it as well as their usual sport. You dont need many to turn up every week to see a major turnaround. 20K attendence would be great. Im disapointed in the Super round being there as its not a rugby stronghold and I feel a better result attendence wise would be achieved in Brisbane.
Cornchips
Roar Rookie
In my opinion News LTD is a big reason we are in this mess. Curious where you are getting this info on the Brumbies financials, I can't see it so would be happy to see a source.
Monsta
Roar Rookie
I am quite sure you'll find that there's a large number of fans from Qld, NSW and WA heading to Melbourne for these games so to say that 81k are local, and born/bred Victorians is misleading. The Victorian Gov doesn't put millions into bidding for these games for locals to attend. I do have a bit of an issue with this happening as my family cannot afford to attend these games. On the other hand, it's funding that RA desperately need, I get it.
Biscuit man
Roar Rookie
Ill add to that Im hearing the the Brumbies are going into voluntary administration also. The only thing that can save professional rugby now is a News Ltd takeover.
Biscuit man
Roar Rookie
They are broke. Smallest crowds of any club by a long way and thats when they win.If RA bail out the Brumbies and let Melbourne go in or biggest sporting market its a disgrace and a failure of corporate governance. Time for News Ltd to make a move to save professional rugby from itself.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
It would be the worst decision ever made by rugby in Australia and would destroy the game in a state of nearly 7 million.
Cec
Roar Rookie
lol round in circles. See above as to why hard decisions have to now be made. We live in a commercial world where markets dictate. Period.
Monsta
Roar Rookie
Farming them off to Super teams seems to mean send the best to the Tahs to stagnate there for a while before moving OS. All jests aside though, there has to be a fairer system than the rubbish that goes on now though.
Cornchips
Roar Rookie
And the fact that they are financially viable, have the best performance record and are getting crowd sizes equivalent to the other teams (suggesting the problem is more rugby than the Brumbies) in much larger markets has no bearing at all on your deduction? Pretty hard decision to look at the Rebels (now reportedly actually in 20 mill debt and poor on field performances) and look at the Brumbies (not in debt and best performing team in Aus) and decide the Brumbies should be cut. I suspect that maybe some weird bias is creeping in to your hard decision...
RoadBike
Roar Rookie
The SR pathways is not fit for purpose - many get identified at schoolboy level and then hang around unchecked, while later developers [who are superior] are ignored with no room left in the academies [due to the under-performing incumbents]. Add to that the impact from some who are involved in SR deals/sponsorship and then influence SR U20/U19/U18 selection decisions based on financials rather than talent - this is where Horne and Nucifora need to step in and remove the cronyism.
ozziedude
Roar Rookie
who
ozziedude
Roar Rookie
I checked the Harlequins vic website and they have 10 Australian representatives, not bad for a Vic club. Not all would be wallabies though.
Adam Rogers
Roar Rookie
This idea getting rid of the rebels will make us better fails to understand the bigger failings across Australian rugby, getting rid of the force didn't increase the strength of the other teams, people just left Australian rugby. We need better and yes centralised ways to 9dentofy talent, and retain them, then farm them out to teams to develop. We currently have ad hoc pathways that meet at super rugby, and shows off just how different they can be.
JD Kiwi
Roar Rookie
I'm not sure how 63%+ with two or three franchises to 45% with five 2016/17 isn't a decline. And it's not us driving the current Rebels situation.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
No, it is not best for the game to cut the Rebels. It is horrendous and would be utterly the fault of the RA management.
Bliksem
Roar Rookie
I think the decline of the Wallabies predated the Force and accelerated since the Force was axed. The Force is not yet back to where it was in 2017 as the Wallabies are selected from players from the other four franchises. Fines our only Wallaby was a shock selection as 3rd halfback and cover for wing. The idea that the Force is the key reason for the Wallaby poor performance flies against logic. It may be in NZ interest that Australia axe one of two franchises. However this will come at a significant cost because cutting the Rebels and Force we remove professional rugby in geographic areas where almost 1/2 of the Australian population lives, the areas where rugby is still growing. I think NZ is strategically misaligned and demand that their partner amputate their limps without being prepared to help. We saw the trauma when RA shot ourselves in the foot by axing the Force and it seems like neither partner learned from that experience. If you partner demands that you amputate you limps, then surely such a partnership is not worth it.
ngRugger
Roar Rookie
Gordon, 23….. was Australia’s best fly-half by a country mile. :laughing: What are you smoking, ‘by a country mile’, yet couldn’t lead his team to the finals where just about every team gets a participation spot. This Australian obsession at anointing the next big thing before they’ve genuinely achieved anything would be best put to bed. Sure a player with lots of potential but plenty of flaws. Eddie J was clearly smoking from the same pipe when put all our eggs in the young bunny’s basket only to be blinded by the lights on the big stage.
Cec
Roar Rookie
That sounds like a. double standard between what Hamish was actively doing versus what Herbert must now do to clean up after him. Anyway if cutting the Rebs now is best for the game then yes that’s very unfortunate however it doesn’t have to be permanent. 20k registered players & families in VIC are not all just going to stop playing so they can revisit the Rebs in future. I’m thinking RA need to keep putting games into the MCG if VIC Govt helps the club stay around. 10mil isn’t much compared to hosting TRC, Bledisloe BIL and RWC x2 for the local economy over upcoming years.