Carlton had one of the weirdest seasons in history in 2023. They lost eight out of nine games between Round 5, when Adelaide thumped them, and Round 13 when their most hated rival Essendon beat them. They then won the next nine in a row.
Every time someone from Carlton speaks to the media it seems they say the main changes were defensive pressure and contested football. But did that actually drive the change between good and bad?
Fans at the losing streak will recall Carlton typically worked hard defensively but were borderline unwatchable when they had the ball.
Did defensive pressure and contested football result in the more free-flowing team we saw in the back half of the year? Or was it something else? This article attempts to explain by looking at the median of key team statistics of both the losing streak and the winning streak.
Starting with what Carlton said drove the change, it is clear that defensive pressure increased significantly during the winning streak. Tackles, a proxy for this, were 20 per cent higher in the winning streak compared to the losing streak. Players like Lachie Fogarty and David Cuningham, who came into the side for the winning streak, can take some credit for this, especially from a forward line perspective. Perhaps surprisingly, one-percenters were identical in both the losing and winning streaks.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Carlton also improved its contested football during the winning streak, with clearances up 14 per cent and contested possessions up 6 per cent.
What stands out, though, is that its uncontested football went backwards at the same rate, with uncontested possessions declining 7 per cent in the winning streak. This appears to be a conscious change in strategy to dial back the slow, tortured football of the losing streak.
Linking with the above, Carlton had about the same amount of kicks during both streaks but handballed 8 per cent less during its winning streak. As a proportion, Carlton was kicking more and moving the ball faster.
Further highlighting this, rebound 50s were up 11 per cent. Brodie Kemp added some more mobility as a third tall defender, which assisted the likes of Adam Saad, Jacob Weitering, Mitch McGovern, Nic Newman, Blake Acres and Sam Docherty – Calton’s main rebounders.
The result of this change in ball movement led to probably the biggest change between a good and bad Carlton: efficiency.
Carlton kicked six extra goals a match during the winning streak despite having basically the same number of disposals, 14 per cent less contested marks per game and only marginally more inside 50s than the losing streak.
Marks inside 50 went from 9 per game to 13, a result of the faster ball movement ahead.
Maybe because Carlton were getting more marks inside 50, resulting in easier shots, Carlton’s goalkicking average went from 47 per cent in the losing streak to 61 per cent in the winning streak. This stat alone may explain the difference between a good and bad Carlton most clearly. The increase in accuracy could be a reversion to normality or a result of luck. It may only partially be due to a change in strategy.
Putting it all together it’s clear Carlton improved its contested football and defensive pressure. What’s also clear is Carlton changed its ball movement. They kicked more as a proportion of overall disposals, and cut back on slow uncontested football. Probably the biggest factor was plain old kicking for goal, which could be explained by a combination of faster ball movement resulting in easier shots for goal and random factors such as luck and player confidence.
So what happens in 2024? Given Carlton’s personnel with Patrick Cripps, Adam Cerra, Sam Walsh and George Hewitt, they should control contested possession in most games. The harder item to pick is the quality of the ball movement.
If you’re a Carlton fan you should be hoping games look frantic, not slow and structured. The Blues need speed on the ball and must ensure their conversion in front of goal is closer to 60 per cent than 50 per cent.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
He'll have to play 10 more seasons.
Diesel-747
Roar Rookie
Orazio will play more games than Nat :boxing:
PeteB
Roar Rookie
No comment, no jinx. Right :stoked: ?
Ace
Roar Rookie
:laughing: :laughing:
Macca
Roar Rookie
I think he is a quality player who plays in our weakest position - but I am not getting too excited until he can get out on the park regularly. On the plus side if we were able to get Mitch McGovern through 22 games last year there is hope for Fantasia
Laurie
Roar Rookie
Fantasia has been a favourite of everyone here over at Port. But I wouldn't count on him playing any more than 8 or 9 games for the season. Vossy is a fan though and I'd be happy to be proven wrong.
Gilberto
Roar Rookie
I hope not because that would mean more silly 50m frees with direction from AFL house to up the scoring. As a coach you concede from 3 events clearances, turnovers and kick ins. Geelong mastered this in 2022 if you have a big bodied midfield and backs with elite kicking skills to not give up possession, then you can control/manage these three. You don't need to score a lot if you limit turnovers and clearance losses. It fell apart in 2023 cause the Cats midfield couldn't hold up their end of the bargain.
Paul Minty
Roar Rookie
It seemed to me that Voss dropped a few players who liked to sag off their opponent at stoppages and the entire team became committed to maintaining touch on their opponent. As a result, our players could get to an opponent with the ball and lay more tackles. When we won the ball, we had support players closer to the contest, allowing a quicker hand off. It was noticeable that Cripps was riding tackles while forced to wait for team mates during the losing streak, but he could feed out a ball from an inside contest much quicker during our winning streak.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Fyfey's not playing for Carlton.
Shane
Roar Rookie
Hawthorn won the 2008 premiership with ant-social football and one of the youngest teams ever but did poorly in 2009. WB won in 2016 with a tight, hard, rolling style of football but did not do well in the following years. I just wonder whether other teams have cottoned on to the Carlton dodgem car style of football and will be ready for it.
PriddisJunior
Roar Rookie
Don’t defend when you can attack so well. Lessons were learnt 2 seasons ago. Got prelim experience now. And are guaranteed a home GF…
PriddisJunior
Roar Rookie
It’s a top 4 side. Again… maybe 2? I like this article. Comes down to list and game plan matters. Voss knows what’s going on. Having the leagues best player helps. And they will time their run better this season because of experience… the club seems shy of expectations though…
Chanon
Roar Rookie
Superstitious Carlton supporters won’t comment on the season ahead they don’t want to jinx the team. :stoked:
Macca
Roar Rookie
While I agree with your arguments by and large the big thing that changed for me was ball use, when losing we turned the ball over coming out of half back too often which lead to players losing confidence and taking less risk which then slowed our game down and led to us getting stuck in our defensive half. A change of mindset and some better ball users coming into the side led to better ball use and once we started winning confidence grew which increased confidence which increased ball use and the cycle continued. This year we need to show we can consistently play at that high level (not just for half the year). I think the inclusion of Williams Hollands and possibly Fantasia should help that as all 3 are quality ball users with good leg speed
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Maybe. Most of the successful teams over the past few years have had speed on the ball. Carlton play with a nice balance of structure & speed. Personally, I see structure (vs chaos) being more important in the coming years, unless the AFL decides to make more rule changes to increase scoring (which always fail). The biggest change over the past few years that has resulted in more end-to-end play (not increased scoring) is the 'stand' rule. This has allowed for much more offensive play through the corridor. Carlton, for whatever reason, wasn't able to defend the corridor during their midseason slump, along with going very risk-averse on the attack themselves. This changed in the back half of the season. Teams will adapt defensively to stop speed on the ball. Coaches always find a way defensively. I see no reason why this won't hold true again once these relatively new rules have been broken down further by the smartest tacticians.