Warriors fans are used to having their hopes built up every few years. And then crushed in the seasons in between.
Their team enters the 2024 premiership with unusual elements hovering over them – optimism, confidence and expectation.
It’s better than the usual pessimism, self-doubt and uncertainty.
They’re on the sixth line of betting for the premiership and there or thereabouts for all the high-end markets like Grand Final, minor premiership and top four.
But you would be mad to put too much faith in a club which has an unfortunate record of being hot-and-cold week to week, month to month and year to year.
There is renewed hope for another finals tilt after last year’s astounding rise from wooden spoon candidates coming off a 6-18 season to a 16-8 juggernaut which finished in the top four.
Roster wise, they have been boosted by the addition of Broncos forward Kurt Capewell and a couple of favourite sons returning from a hiatus in nowhere in particular – Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Chanel Harris-Tavita.
They actually have one of the most experienced squads in the NRL so it’s unlikely a collective second-year syndrome will be a problem, even for coach Andrew Webster, who stunned all and sundry with the results he achieved in his rookie year.
But still there are question marks over the Warriors’ ability to again be contenders.
First of all, no opposition team will take them lightly this time around. No one will admit they did that in 2023 but when the Warriors and the Dolphins got off to hot starts and tapered off midway through the season, everyone expected them both to fade into the background.
But while the Redcliffe outfit did just that as injuries exposed the Dolphins’ depth, the Warriors surged to win 10 of 11 to wrap up the most improbable of top-four berths.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is tackled. (Photo by Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)
And while they have bolstered their roster with three seasoned professionals, Capewell’s form tapered off last year with Brisbane, Harris-Tavita was riddled with inconsistency before he took a 12-month sabbatical and Tuivasa-Sheck will be playing out of position at centre, where he has never lined up in his previous 195 NRL appearances.
RTS looked strong, particularly in defence, in the pre-season trials but is he being wasted away from fullback.
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad enjoyed a bounceback year in the Warriors No.1 jersey after his Raiders stint petered out but switching him to another spot in the backline to allow a Dally M Medal winner to play fullback could be a better option for Webster.
Johnson is coming off a career-best year in the halves and hopefully he can replicate that form.
But as brilliant as he can be, the 33-year-old former Kiwi international has not been known for his consistency or durability.
In playing 25 matches last year it was only the sixth time in 13 seasons that he has lined up in 20 or more games.
Weighing in his favour is the fact that he has made a successful transition to a different style of halfback. Much like Wests Tigers legend Benji Marshall, who also made a name for himself with scintillating solo attacking moves early in his career before becoming better at setting up teammates, Johnson is now an elite facilitator.
His 29 try assists for 2023 was only the second time he’s topped that stat since his rookie season ended in the 2011 Grand Final loss to Manly and easily his best haul on that front.
Shaun Johnson of the New Zealand Warriors. (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
Another player integral to the Warriors’ hopes of proving last year was no fluke is prop Addin Fonua-Blake, who requested a release in the summer only for the club to quite rightly say no before cutting a deal so that he stays before heading to Conulla at season’s end.
Webster has stated that there has been nothing on or off the training field to suggest AFB won’t finish his Warriors stint on a high note but if there is any drop-off in form in the early rounds, it won’t be long before whispers emerge questioning his commitment.
Their pack has already copped a blow with the departure to Canterbury of Josh Curran, who has been one of their most impactful players in recent years.
His tackle-breaking ability could be missed more than the Warriors realise.
Canberra, rightly so, are the widespread pick as the team most likely to plunge out of finals contention from last year’s top eight. If the Raiders manage to avoid the bottom four with their ageing roster that no longer has Jack Wighton, that in itself will be an achievement.
The Knights still have to prove that they can back up their rapid rise to fifth in the second half of last season while Cronulla could be shaky propositions for the top eight after plateauing last year.
South Sydney, Parramatta, Manly and North Queensland are desperate to return to the playoffs after down seasons while the likes of Gold Coast, the Dolphins and, if you squint, the Bulldogs are playoff smokies.
Now firmly entrenched as everyone’s second favourite team, they have goodwill on their side but that counts for little when the referee’s whistle is blown.
The pressure is on the Warriors to back up their breakthrough campaign and qualify for the playoffs in successive years for only the fourth time in their 30th season.
Dualcode
Roar Rookie
They'll either be genuinely true warriors after a top eight push, or be the same old "worriers" struggling occasionally so we'll see.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
"If the Raiders manage to avoid the bottom four with their ageing roster that no longer has Jack Wighton, that in itself will be an achievement." The only ageing players I can see in the Raiders squad are Elliot Whitehead (34) and Jordan Rapana (34). Josh Papalii is 31 and apparently has lost 6 to 8 kg and Fogarty is 29.. That leaves 26 in the squad that are well under 25. And I'm predicting losing Jack will end up being beneficial for both Jack and the Raiders.
Panthers
Roar Rookie
That’s a huge difference as compared to other sides. Other than perhaps Melbourne or North Queensland. Didn’t stop Melbourne. With the juniors, if there’s too many. They will still lose a lot . Plus the appeal of playing Rugby Union of course.
Succhi
Roar Rookie
Yes Panthers. I really think they can dominate the NRL much like your team. If they can keep their juniors in NZ will be critical. I think we also sometimes don’t appreciate is that they travel internationally every 2 weeks, although only 3 or 4 hours, it is a hassle getting through customs, etc. I get other NRL have to travel to NZ under the same circumstances, but not every 2 weeks.
Panthers
Roar Rookie
I think that you’re correct. No real reason that they shouldn’t be stronger this coming season? Only problem may be Johnson, as he’s not getting any younger.
Bunney
Roar Rookie
My doubts about the Warriors are primarily regarding Shaun Johnson. He had a blinder of a year in 2023. If he goes down, I don't see enough skill and poise in the remaining halves to taken them into the finals. Secondarily, the same goes for Wayde Egan @ hooker. Great last year, but if he goes down, who will step up?
Panthers
Roar Rookie
Hope you’re right . I read that Hassett is another player in the same mold as Martin. Will rip in ,in attack & defence. Let’s hope that’s also correct. Also hope that there’s more to be happy about from the Jersey Flegg & NSW Cup. What they can’t afford to do as a club, is to do a Manly with DCE. Having a good halfback & leaving him without a decent halves partner for many a year. Even if that means buying a couple of good up & coming halves from elsewhere. If it’s good enough for other clubs to do to them & all….
aerial lizard
Roar Rookie
Whenever we have a marquee player leaving a team the next season it seems to impact on morale and I have rarely seen a team thrive in this situation. Still Webster has shown excellent coaching qualities thus far, so he might help them deal with it without blowing their season.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Yep ! The halves look a bit light on if Cleary & Luai are injured. I think Cole will make the grade and I think Schneider will go OK with some time working in the squad. They have plenty of depth in the forwards. I see they have added Preston Riki to their top 30 squad. I think he could be our next Kikau ?
Panthers
Roar Rookie
After all the players lost , not just in first grade & especially halves. You could ask the same question about Penrith. Will they make the top 4? I can see some talented players who could make their mark in the forwards: such as Geyer, Hassett & Henry. Who are the backs pushing the top grade for inclusion now? Cole wasn’t a first thought as a top halves replacement. He was one player who was left.
Succhi
Roar Rookie
I think the Warriors will be a force in the NRL. We’ve been waiting and waiting, but I think they have some stability now in ownership, coach and board combined with confidence after a strong 2023, plus the Kiwis beating Aussies would have given the whole country a lift. I have them in the top 4.
Red Rob
Roar Rookie
I think Capewell for Curran is a net loss (on last years form) but agree they’re strongly placed for the top 4 and I’d be amazed if they don’t make the 8.
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
I wonder if too much importance is being placed on what happened with the Warriors in the past, speculation about what bad things might happen this year and not enough on their current reality? As it stands, the Warriors have a good, stable squad, led by a coach who knows how to get the best out of this group and right now, they're relatively injury free. On that basis, how can they not be considered certainties to make the finals? The other question is, if they don't the finals, who will? On the basis the Warriors have had up and down seasons, so have Manly, Souths and the Eels and the Warriors look far more settled than any of these teams, especially in key spine positions. There's not a team in the comp that won't crash and burn if enough bad things happen. Sure that can happen to the Warriors, but right now, I find it hard to see them not playing finals footy again this year.
KenW
Roar Rookie
I agree with the thrust of the article. Warriors are capable of anything, but not certainties for anything. Many times we have seen the story of a team rapidly jumping up the table for a season - and the subsequent belief they were staying there - before plummeting back to where they came. We've also seen teams make it stick. I agree with you though Forty Twenty. From our top team, that's just won 3 in a row, to our bottom team, who has been there twice in a row, there's interesting stories all through the comp.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Hopefully you are right Albo. I believe most teams could finish in the top or bottom 4 depending on injuries and the form of key players and even a dose of bad luck or good luck in a few games. I thought last season was looking pretty good at the start and this one looks like a beauty.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Yep ! Not sure why there are these doubts about the Warriors ? They look a more solid outfit for 2024 after losing only Josh Curran (of any consequence) but gaining Capewell, RTS & Harris Tevita. They have good depth in most positions and have a coach they all seem to want to play for. The side is settled, and experienced, and has good on field leadership with the likes of Harris, Johnson, RTS, & now Capewell. I give them a good chance of a top 4 spot, especially if they can make their home ground a fortress which looked like developing last season.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
I think that Wahs are certs to make the 8 but I'm not so sure about top 4. Brisbane have one spot , Penrith have another and the Storm a third. One spot left and maybe 5 contenders . If the Wahs finish 6th or 7th its another good season even it their fans dont think so.