The Rebels are the second highest Australian team on the Super Rugby Pacific ladder, and halfway into the season it shows they have a real chance of making their first finals series.
However, the history and odds are stacked against the Rebels as they take on the Highlanders in Melbourne on Saturday night, having won only one of their last 16 games against New Zealand opposition.
The lone win fittingly came in the form of a one-point victory against the men from the deep south in May 2022.
The two sides are evenly matched but it’s clear the Rebels are an all-out attacking side reliant on brute force, with a tendency to allow defensive integrity to fall by the wayside.
Conversely, the Highlanders are team more reliant on defence and work ethic.
However, the Highlanders are not toothless. They can strike at any time through their multi-syllabic game breakers in Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens and Timoci Tavatavanawai as well as mercurial game driver Folau Fakatava.
Within the polarising styles lies the Rebels’ conundrum: can they turn their defensive woes around in one week or do they just continue to score big points and smash their way to victory? The Waratahs did in 2014.
The short answer is no, one week is likely not enough time to fix what they have been unable to do over the opening seven weeks of the competition.
The Rebels are conceding plenty of points, but they’re also some too. (Photo by Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images)
It’s not that the Rebels are tackling poorly, rather their system doesn’t deal well with the transition from attack to defence or missed tackles.
They’re tackling at a healthy 84 per cent with an average of 25 missed tackles per game, but their system lacks safeguards and few on-ballers to slow the oppositions’ ball, meaning the tackles that are missed are more lethal than in other systems.
For context, they have a point differential of -33 from four wins and three losses, meanwhile the Highlanders, who are sitting three spots behind them have a differential of -40 with two wins and four losses.
That’s the long way of saying, their defence is not something which can be fixed in a week, instead, the Rebels should stick to their guns and play to outscore the Highlanders before they run out of steam.
Their power at set piece as well as in the carry has translated into huge territory gains, illustrated by a competition high of 86 attacking 22m entries, 11 more than any other team, and 26 more than the Highlanders.
It paints a picture of a side so far unable to harness their power, but it also shows the Rebels must take their opportunities when they present themselves.
The Burn City boys score most of their points on either side of halftime but score very few in the first and final quarters.
This is bad news for the ‘Landers who concede most of their points in the 20 minutes leading-up to halftime.
It shows a small window of opportunity to apply the blow torch before they run out of steam.
Meanwhile, the ‘Landers have had a knack for scoring points in the first and final 20 minutes of the game, meaning if the Rebels can hold the fort for the first quarter, then they are in with a decent chance of walking away with a win.
The Rebels’ gameplan now looks simple: score more points, faster than the Highlanders.
There are a few ways the Rebels could achieve this, and the similarities between the Drua and the Highlanders reveal avenues to pursue for the Rebels.
Both the Drua and the Highlanders use a rush defence, the Drua push as a line while the Highlanders deploy the umbrella shape, often with a shooting centre.
The Drua regularly caught Carter Gordon behind the gain line in the first half, forcing him either to kick away possession or to take contact, slowing the recycle and stunting the shapes Gordon wanted to run.
The Highlanders successfully deployed a similar line speed against the Hurricanes and were also able to stifle their momentum for a period as well.
The Canes are a good comparison because they like the Rebels are a power team.
In both clips we can see Sam Gilbert (No.12) rushes up and completes the umbrella shape, cutting off the outside channel and herding the Hurricanes player back in.
Here the Rebels have two main ways to attack the Highlanders’ umbrella rush defence.
Option one is a risky ball over the top of the shooter.
Options two is to punch through the slowest part of the umbrella shape which appears at the peak or the vertex of the curve, it usually appears around the 30 channel (the third defender from the ruck).
That’s where Jordie Barrett looks to attack in the first clip above.
However, make no mistake the Rebels via Gordon will go to the wider channels especially when Gordon has the best pass of a one-step wind-up in Australia.
The passes looks magnificent, but it is what the outside players do once they have the ball which is crucial for the Rebels to succeed.
The following two clips show how the Rebels manoeuvred around the Drua’s rush defence.
Both clips show a possible blueprint for the Rebels against the Highlanders, they must resist the urge to kick the ball away after getting outside the rush defence and get numbers around the ball.
The first clip shows how Glen Vaihu’s sheer speed and power to beat his man on the outside gave the Rebels safe and quick ball.
In the second clip, the Rebels go 15m backwards before going 30m forwards, making a net gain of 15m, setting the next ruck just outside the Drua’s 22m.
There are two keys to this, one is Filipo Daugunu’s trademark step and second is the number of Rebels players around the ball.
Four backs and one forward are all in the 15m channel against two backs and a prop from the Drua.
The Rebels cannot afford to kick the ball away aimlessly in these situation as seen in earlier clips, instead, they must show composure, retain the ball and use it as a launching pad for their attack.
However, the Rebels must be cautious heading to the space out wide with few numbers because the Highlanders have a well-structured fold defence as well as the competitions’ best backline turnover merchant in Tavatavanawai on one wing.
The Rebels have the power to go through the Highlanders at the umbrella’s vertex, but they also have Gordon’s pass to go around them, the key will be to find that balance.
If the Rebels can keep the ball in hand and stay patient until they find themselves in that 40-minute passage on either side of halfway then they have the points in them to set up a lead the Highlanders cannot chase down.
Should the Rebels make their first ever finals series in 2024, it could be traced back to a win on Saturday night.
Dualcode
Roar Rookie
Ironic that it took potential liquidation that's now averted with a "sponsor" to motivate the Rebels to do better this season, this one is a gimmie for the Melbourne boys so no excuses here.
Guess
Roar Rookie
Great analysis. Tahs coaches need to see those clips with rebels attack. Who's the highest team tho?
PaddyBoy
Roar Rookie
Nice work on this one, makes a lot of sense looking back through the games. Scramble defense has improved over the last few weeks but it won’t cut it in NZ. Would love to see some individuals’ stats from the Rebs forward pack. Dunno where to find them though.
Wig1
Roar Rookie
The reds were going pretty well last season I had high hopes for them then they fell of the rails when the road got steeper
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
They started the season with a really dumb effort against a misfiring Brumbies who were miles off their best. A few really soft tries conceded and heads off play with the ball butchering good opportunities. It confirmed a view of the team built up over a long time of good players, playing poorly as a team. What’s happened since has been far from perfect but it’s a vision of what they could be. I see a way they want to play that I don’t get at all from my Tahs and very little from the Force. They look like a team. Polish up some rough edges and they can make an impression on this comp. Goal kicking might be an Achilles they can’t resolve
Dusty10
Roar Rookie
I agree, that's exactly what they need to do now, mid season. But, they won't win a title with a game plan that simple, either. They need to grow as a team, just as the Reds have done (as an example, despite their last two games). The Brums have grown as well, with better attacking shape and a fairly clear plan each game. It obviously helps that they've had barely any squad changes for 3 years, too. I'm not a Rebels fan, in fact they really just annoy the f@#k out of me, but i genuinely rate Kellaway, Gordon, and Kemeny. Hope they go well.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
People love cliches like saying the forwards are soft. But they aren’t. They are typically dominant physically. They get outsmarted not outmuscled.
Ankle-tapped Waterboy
Roar Rookie
If the wind change hadn't come through three hours earlier than predicted, we'd have had a firestorm through Greensborough. That's urban Melbourne.
Ankle-tapped Waterboy
Roar Rookie
Thanks TWAS I've seen some comments about a merged Rebels Manu Pasifiki and this little incident has provided an anecdote about exactly the sort of stupidities which would arise.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
I read a book on that weekend recently. Emotional stuff.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
I’ve said this for a year. Play narrow, use your big boys, only go wide if you’re in behind. Keep the ball when the set starts in good field position, otherwise kick and then chase well. Play for set piece penalties, and maul like berzerkers off the back of them. Scrum teams off the park. Kick and tackle. Ideally, this strategy is aligned with a +80% goal kicker but that’s not available sadly.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Nah. It was made up by some of the younger Pasifika boys, Uelese, Leota, Fa'amasuili. Marketing have seen it and tacked on to it as it's spread wider among some of the younger Pasifika boys.
Ankle-tapped Waterboy
Roar Rookie
It's something that the Rebels marketing chap or chapess thought up. I suspect they are too young to remember Black Saturday with its 173 deaths. That day was a nightmare.
Wozza
Roar Rookie
20 out of 30 make the post season in the NBA but equally to much IMO. Should be top 6 in Super rugby
Cassandra
Roar Rookie
Thanks John. Love this sort of analysis backed up by statistics rather than opinion and how that translates into how the teams play. Also, thanks for introducing Burn City. Had not heard that before.
piru
Roar Rookie
Rebels are in 5th The proportionately large finals bracket is a strength of SR, not a weakness
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Rebels forwards are great at post contact meters. One or two passes off the ruck and quick phases will see them bunch forward well. Focus on that.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Great analysis John. Really captures well the Rebels strengths, but also where they are actually weak rather than standard cliches. If the Rebels can keep the ball in hand and stay patient until they find themselves in that 40-minute passage on either side of halfway then they have the points in them to set up a lead the Highlanders cannot chase down. I think this is especially spot on. As you rightly not, the Rebels transition D is where they are the weakest. A good way to prevent this from being exposed is try and limit turnovers from errors. And a great one to do that is rely on brute force rather than try and play too much rugby. I notice the Rebels look most dangerous when they try and build quick phases and one or two short passes. When they try and be too expansive they can do well but also lead to this turnovers.
Dusty10
Roar Rookie
Thanks John, paints an interesting picture of the Rebels that i hadn't really considered; their point scoring potential is actually pretty good. However... Just wondering whether Carter's long pass really came to the fore when the Drua were down players. The long pass was the smart thing to do as they could get around them more easily than they could in the first half. It won't work as well against the Highlanders, who are defensively a much better team than the Drua and should (hopefully) have 15 men on the park most of the game! Carter is a fantastic player and I really hope he kicks on... he'd be great in a team like, say, the Brumbies, who now have an extremely well-rounded and reliable forward pack. He also needs some backline systems. Rugby is not just 'heads-up' footy; it's a series of plays and patterns that, to the opposition, LOOK LIKE heads-up footy but were no fluke. He and his team need a more detailed plan, they need to work in sync, and they need to execute to the letter.
josuafj
Roar Rookie
They should try their best as it's their last year of existence.