A big final round kicks off at the Adelaide Oval, as the Adelaide Crows host the West Coast Eagles. Join The Roar for live scores and a blog from 8:10pm AEST.
Both of these teams are getting set for what they hope will be a long finals campaign. And both teams tonight have a big opportunity to make that campaign just a little bit easier.
The Crows currently sit in second, and need to hold that spot to guarantee a home final, potentially leading to a week off and a home preliminary final to follow.
That’s the first class ticket to the Grand Final. That’s why any side that finishes in the top two is a very real flag threat. It’s a huge prize on the line for the Crows.
Lose tonight, however, and barring a series of upset results in other games, that chance goes away.
In fact, the Crows may finish out of the top four altogether should they go down tonight and Geelong, Hawthorn and GWS all win their final round match-ups. Under the current finals system, no team has won the flag from outside the top 4.
So let there be no doubt how much is on the line for the home team.
West Coast’s premiership campaign might seem a bit less realistic from the outside, but having come so close last year they would surely see things differently internally.
They currently sit in sixth, ahead of the Western Bulldogs only on percentage. With the Dogs heavy favourites to beat Fremantle in the final game of the round, one would think the Eagles to hold on to their current position and a home final.
If they do fall to seventh, then their only path to a premiership would be to win four consecutive finals interstate. That just doesn’t seem realistic.
Win tonight, however, and they have a slim chance of finishing as high as fourth, should both Hawthorn and GWS lose.
One way or the other, the viability of West Coast’s premiership campaign surely depends on winning this game.
In short, by the end of this game, one team’s premiership ambitions will be seriously curtailed. It’s not too dramatic to regard this as an early final.
Both sides are missing key players after incidents last week.
Adelaide are no doubt still steaming after being more or less forced to accept Rory Sloane’s one game suspension, but at least he’ll be back for the finals, as more than likely will Brodie Smith, missing through concussion.
No such luck for West Coast’s Nic Naitanui. The Eagles will be without their inspirational ruckman for the rest of the campaign after a knee injury.
Jonathan Giles comes in to help Lycett in the ruck, while Tom Barrass is another inclusion at the expense of Jackson Nelson.
Ricky Henderson and Cam Ellis-Yolmen are the Crows’ inclusions.
Tactically the losses of Sloane, Smith and Naitanui are pretty significant. But on the face of it the Crows should be able to deal better with their absences.
Adelaide’s midfield looks a bit shallow with those players out, but has stood up on most occasions this year.
But Naitanui is one of a kind, as he memorably demonstrated against GWS two weeks ago. Sam Jacobs will likely have the better of the ruck contests tonight.
But nevertheless the Eagles would still be hopeful that they can do better than break even with Adelaide at stoppages. Between Priddis, Shuey, Hutchings, Masten and Sheed there’s plenty of good contested players in the visiting team’s midfield.
It is absolutely essential that they win the battle in this part of the ground, because the single most potent line of either side in this contest is clearly Adelaide’s forwardline.
Taylor Walker, Eddie Betts, Josh Jenkins, Tom T Lynch and Jeremy McGovern make up the league’s most effective attack, and if they get good supply tonight for any length of time they’ll surely make the most of it.
While the Eagles’ backline remains pretty strong it’ll take a whole-team effort to keep the Crows from recording a winning score.
West Coast’s forwards haven’t had the season overall that they would like, but many of them are coming into form at the right time.
Josh J Kennedy has been good all year, but Jamie Cripps, Jack Darling, and Mark LeCras have been significantly more effective in the last couple of months, and are a big part of why the Eagles’ results against top teams appear to have improved.
On the face of things though they’re not as capable of scoring heavily as their opponents tonight.
When these sides met earlier in the year in Perth, Adelaide ran riot in the last term after the Eagles had led for most of the evening. It was a strange, listless end to an important game for West Coast.
Without Naitanui and on the road for this one all the indications are that the Eagles will struggle. Indeed they’re at fairly long odds in most markets.
But their form at the moment is undeniably better than it was back in June, and surely they won’t fade out so dismally tonight.
On paper they have a clear advantage in the midfield, although obviously not in the ruck, so for mine they have a real chance tonight.
That said, Adelaide have been extremely impressive over the whole season. They showed last week when challenged by the Power that they can match determined, willing teams with their own resolve, and a little extra class.
At home, in front of an eager crowd, I’d expect the Crows to win tonight and come back in two weeks to host a final.
Join The Roar for live scores and a blog from 8:10pm AEST.
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
After watching Sydney demolish Richmond yesterday I think there is only one favorite for the flag. WCE can make the prelim then it depends on who they come up against. We need the Hawks to lose to Collingwood to avoid Sydney in the prelim. If that happens then likely will meet Geelong in the other prelim, and that would not be beyond the WCE if we can get on top of the Geelong backline who are all nearly in wheelchairs.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
Tunbridge is another Darling for size and strength.Run him through the middle,modify his aggression just a little, but who do you drop?
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
Agree...the backline is looking much more balanced now that Barrass had found his feet at AFL level. He is a star in the making. Hurn was terrific with his kick-ins from behinds which set up numerous transitions into our forward 50. They have certainly turned their season around in the last 3 weeks. Just hope they can take it deep into the finals. Anything can happen if they make the prelim.
Lex
Guest
If they finish out of the four, its still a tough road to the G, but the form this team is in, its hard to say never. it has been done before? buy then theres the evenness of the Swans to blanket their hopes maybe. but simply WOW! how good has this team been last 2 weeks, saving best for last it seems. 3 weeks ago i was screaming with frustration at turnovers, poor kicking, handball circlejerking, bad decisions, missed oppurtunities, missing set shots at goal. I was frustrated with Darling, Lecras, Masten and Priddis. eating my hat now..although Lecras and Darling still have the yips. Dom Sheed has gone up a notch. Jetta needs to do more, but what he does is often scintillating if not sizzling! maybe he's got some big game stuff in him ahead? the mid has really clicked. Like many i was calling for some gun mid imports at trade season. still got Duggan and Redden to improve. Tom Barrass and Mitts Mcgovern are a unique force..(we've now got 2 Mcgoverns?) hope to see Tunbridge back in finals. future looks bright.
Don Freo
Guest
Good to see you happy at last, gom. I told you they are one of the grand finalists. The best attack, the best defence and a very good midfield.
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
Agree with your picks. People have been bagging Kennedy for only kicking bags against the lesser sides. Well last night he gave an AA backman a bath and it was clinical. Talia was never in any of the contests and Kennedy was so clean overhead it was one of the best performances by a key forward I have seen in a long long time. Priddis and Gaff had more disposal than Shuey, but Shuey is deceptive with the strength he shows in the contest and his ability to break tackles and clear the ball with precision inside 50. A really good game IMO. And TommyBarrass should have wrapped up this week's Rising Start nomination. He was excellent and dominated that backline with McGovern like they were having a kick in the park down the road. He said in his interview that he now just needs to work on his ball use. Well, he used the ball at 94% and you can't get much better than that. Barrass is a star in the making. And special mention to Dom Sheed. What a difference he makes to the midfield when he is in form.
Raimond
Roar Guru
From a GWS point of view, that last-second loss to the Eagles is looking slightly more respectable.
Don Freo
Guest
Agreed. This was the GF preview tonight...as long as they don't meet each other on the way through.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
Since the bye,only Collingwood and GWS have kicked more than 11 goals against the Eagles. It says a lot about the improvement in defence which has led to their wins. I'd think it's nearly back to 2015 levels. It's fashionable to sneer at Masten and while he does turn it over,when he's on, his kicking is great.And Shuey's delivery is about as good as it gets. I'd have him as BOG and another three Brownlow votes. He's a smokey for mine. If the Pies and Roos win,the Eagle keep fourth and get the chance to get to the GF in three games.That might be hairy for whoever faces them in this kind of form It's really interesting that the losing coaches in the last three games have referred to their teams not playing their best football and not,'hey we played a good side tonight who played better than us, we can learn from them..'
TomC
Roar Guru
Votes Okay, these might be controversial. 3. Tom Barrass - Ultimately this was a win built on defence, and Barrass was the best defender on the ground. We often talk about 50-50 situations in footy, but Barrass seemed to repeatedly win the 30-70 against situations. He made several key spoils, took intercept marks, was a presence on the ground as well as in the air, and was controlled and composed with the ball when he had it. 2. Luke Shuey - West Coast's most complete midfielder tonight, he was a beast on the inside and a threat on the outside. 31 possessions, 8 tackles, 4 clearances, and 6 inside 50s. In something of a scrappy game his reading of the options and good decision-making stood out. 1. Josh Kennedy - By far the game's most effective forward, he was well on top of Talia and kicked five goals, including a couple of beauties. I've heard the commentary and scanned through the match reports, and I know almost everyone else had Andrew Gaff as the best player on the ground. With 41 possessions, he's a logical choice, but in my opinion he didn't have the impact of the players above. I thought his ball use was patchy and I can't really think of too many individual moments where his play stood out, unlike my top three. McGovern, Priddis and Giles all had fine games. Henderson and Matt Crouch probably the Crows' best.
TomC
Roar Guru
Match review Adelaide started slowly, letting the Eagles control the play for most of the first quarter, before catching up to get within a point at quarter time. And at that stage it looked like the Crows might get on top like most of us expected before the game. West Coast though jumped away early in the second quarter, dominating clearances and taking advantage of defensive errors to kick five straight goals. Adelaide then rallied to kick three in quick succession to whittle the margin down to within two kicks. And at that stage it looked like the Crows might get on top. In the third quarter Adelaide for the first time began to break even in possession and territory, which you'd think would translate into better scoring opportunities, but instead the game sunk into a bit of a stalemate, with both teams missing chances. Just one goal had been registered until more halfway into the third term, when the Eagles broke the game upon, running away to a 5.3.33 to 0.7.7 quarter which established a commanding 37 point lead at the last break. West Coast extended the margin early in the last, before easing up late in the game to let the Crows kick a little closer and keep the final margin to within five goals. But that final scoreline is kind to the home team. It was largely West Coast's inaccuracy that kept the game close in the first half, and once the Eagles' forwards found their range in the second half they quickly kicked out to a significant lead, that Adelaide really only managed to peg back once the sting was out of the contest. The key factor in this game was West Coast's well-organised defensive structures that dried up obvious attacking avenues through the middle of the ground, and in turn Adelaide's more or less total capitulation in the face of that organised defence. The Crows were repeatedly forced to kick long down the line due to a lack of short options. This rarely worked out well, in part due to the excellent performances of pretty much all the Eagles defenders, and their superior contested ball-winning ability when it hit the ground. When Adelaide did attempt a short option, it often ended in disaster. They regularly turned the ball over attempting twenty metres kicks through half back or sideways handballs to teammates under pressure. They lacked a genuinely composed flanker to take control in the backline and help them retain the pill for longer. Put simply, Adelaide panicked. They panicked often and at the worst possible time. I'm not a fan of psychological assessments of footy matches, but it really did appear that the pressure of the occasion combined with the suffocating defensive wall built by the Eagles to completely throw the Crows off their gameplan. But in some ways it's just as important to consider what wasn't a factor tonight. Many people, including myself, thought the loss of Naitanui would put the Eagles at a real disadvantage tonight. But Lycett and Giles between them broke even at worst with Jacobs, and when Jenkins had a turn for Adelaide they took advantage of that matchup around the ground as well as at stoppages. The Crows' forwardline, the most potent in the league across the season, barely gave a whimper tonight. They were denied opportunities, it's true, but even so ten goals for the game – three in absolute junk time – is a poor return. Betts, Walker, Lynch, Jenkins and McGovern all had sub-par games. The only multiple goalscorers were midfielders in Douglas and Ellis-Yolman. On that note, hats off to the West Coast defenders, particularly Jeremy McGovern and Tom Barrass. They were superb. Young Barrass in particular played out of his skin, and often turned dangerous Adelaide forward movements into comfortable clearances for the Eagles, either through intercept marking, intelligent spoiling, or winning the ball on the ground. With Sloane and Smith missing the Eagles always appeared to have an edge in the midfield, and they were fortunate to have had several excellent contributors in this part of the ground. Priddis was , as usual, at the bottom of every contest either winning the ball or laying a tackle. Shuey was almost as effective at that role, but even more so on the outside driving the Eagles forward. Gaff had a career high 41 touches, although was a little sloppy at times. Sheed and Masten both had influential games. Adelaide probably didn't have a single player whose output matched any of the above. Matt Crouch worked hard and had 29 touches but, likely many of his teammates, had a tendency to kick without looking. Finally, while West Coast would be a little disappointed with their wastefulness in front of goal at times, the individual performance of forward Josh Kennedy, who kicked five goals opposed to a very fine key defender in Daniel Talia, would be pleasing. It also realitically ensures the former Blue's second Coleman Medal in as many years. In closing, let's consider the ramifications of this result on the finals. Adelaide are now almost certain to drop out of the top two, and may drop all the way to fifth if Geelong, Hawthorn and GWS all win their matchups. Either a first up trip to Sydney to play the Swans away, with a double chance; or a home game against the Kangaroos, without a double chance; shape as the most likely outcomes. This result would certainly be a jarring one for them, but they are certainly capable of much better. Their premiership campaign isn't dead, although it looks a bit sickly right at this minute. West Coast are now certain of finishing at least sixth, and maybe as high as fourth. Most likely they'll be hosting one of North Melbourne or the Western Bulldogs at Domain Stadium in week one of the finals. They'll need to win four straight finals to claim the flag, but at least they'll get one home game, and more importantly they go to September in by far their best form of the year. The Eagles' ambitions of going one better than 2015 and claiming another premiership remain at least somewhat realistic.
Sammy
Guest
You can add pathetic and mentally weak while you are there. And finish off with foot and hand skills were some of the worst seen from a team aiming to finish in the top 2. I am just not sure if west coast were that good or adelaide were just that bad that it made it too easy for them
TomC
Roar Guru
'Capitulate' is a word I'll be using at least once. I might need an online thesaurus.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Well, it's been a while since the game finished so you really must be struggling to describe this game, Tom! But thank you for the call, excellent coverage as always! Hope to catch you again sometime this weekend. Have a wonderful weekend! (If I'm in a suddenly happen mood come next week it's because Freo would've managed to get the win for Pav - looking more unlikely than likely though) Good night!
Sammy
Guest
Let me write it for you..short and to the point. West coast far far too good and adelaide capitulated. There that should do it
Cat
Roar Guru
Yes Adelaide was off but let's not undersell WCE shutting Adelaides run out of the back half down. Force Adelaide to kick long to a contest and they struggle.
Cat
Roar Guru
Malay not be the only game that goes contrary to predictions
Mister Football
Roar Guru
I had the the final 8 placings worked out in my head before tonight - this result messes it up completely.
Cat
Roar Guru
Looks like the Eagles watched plenty of tape on how the Cats took Adelaide apart twice. Slow them down coming out of their defensive 50 and force them to kick to contests. Both Geelong and West Coast are much better over head than Adelaide is. Adelaide can't run ... They can't score.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Crows are definitely still in the hunt - they're a team who on any given day can come out and play unreal footy and just pepper the goals. Today they were off and they ran into an Eagles team which has clicked big time.