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A big final round kicks off at the Adelaide Oval, as the Adelaide Crows host the West Coast Eagles. Join The Roar for live scores and a blog from 8:10pm AEST.
Both of these teams are getting set for what they hope will be a long finals campaign. And both teams tonight have a big opportunity to make that campaign just a little bit easier.
The Crows currently sit in second, and need to hold that spot to guarantee a home final, potentially leading to a week off and a home preliminary final to follow.
That’s the first class ticket to the Grand Final. That’s why any side that finishes in the top two is a very real flag threat. It’s a huge prize on the line for the Crows.
Lose tonight, however, and barring a series of upset results in other games, that chance goes away.
In fact, the Crows may finish out of the top four altogether should they go down tonight and Geelong, Hawthorn and GWS all win their final round match-ups. Under the current finals system, no team has won the flag from outside the top 4.
So let there be no doubt how much is on the line for the home team.
West Coast’s premiership campaign might seem a bit less realistic from the outside, but having come so close last year they would surely see things differently internally.
They currently sit in sixth, ahead of the Western Bulldogs only on percentage. With the Dogs heavy favourites to beat Fremantle in the final game of the round, one would think the Eagles to hold on to their current position and a home final.
If they do fall to seventh, then their only path to a premiership would be to win four consecutive finals interstate. That just doesn’t seem realistic.
Win tonight, however, and they have a slim chance of finishing as high as fourth, should both Hawthorn and GWS lose.
One way or the other, the viability of West Coast’s premiership campaign surely depends on winning this game.
In short, by the end of this game, one team’s premiership ambitions will be seriously curtailed. It’s not too dramatic to regard this as an early final.
Both sides are missing key players after incidents last week.
Adelaide are no doubt still steaming after being more or less forced to accept Rory Sloane’s one game suspension, but at least he’ll be back for the finals, as more than likely will Brodie Smith, missing through concussion.
No such luck for West Coast’s Nic Naitanui. The Eagles will be without their inspirational ruckman for the rest of the campaign after a knee injury.
Jonathan Giles comes in to help Lycett in the ruck, while Tom Barrass is another inclusion at the expense of Jackson Nelson.
Ricky Henderson and Cam Ellis-Yolmen are the Crows’ inclusions.
Tactically the losses of Sloane, Smith and Naitanui are pretty significant. But on the face of it the Crows should be able to deal better with their absences.
Adelaide’s midfield looks a bit shallow with those players out, but has stood up on most occasions this year.
But Naitanui is one of a kind, as he memorably demonstrated against GWS two weeks ago. Sam Jacobs will likely have the better of the ruck contests tonight.
But nevertheless the Eagles would still be hopeful that they can do better than break even with Adelaide at stoppages. Between Priddis, Shuey, Hutchings, Masten and Sheed there’s plenty of good contested players in the visiting team’s midfield.
It is absolutely essential that they win the battle in this part of the ground, because the single most potent line of either side in this contest is clearly Adelaide’s forwardline.
Taylor Walker, Eddie Betts, Josh Jenkins, Tom T Lynch and Jeremy McGovern make up the league’s most effective attack, and if they get good supply tonight for any length of time they’ll surely make the most of it.
While the Eagles’ backline remains pretty strong it’ll take a whole-team effort to keep the Crows from recording a winning score.
West Coast’s forwards haven’t had the season overall that they would like, but many of them are coming into form at the right time.
Josh J Kennedy has been good all year, but Jamie Cripps, Jack Darling, and Mark LeCras have been significantly more effective in the last couple of months, and are a big part of why the Eagles’ results against top teams appear to have improved.
On the face of things though they’re not as capable of scoring heavily as their opponents tonight.
When these sides met earlier in the year in Perth, Adelaide ran riot in the last term after the Eagles had led for most of the evening. It was a strange, listless end to an important game for West Coast.
Without Naitanui and on the road for this one all the indications are that the Eagles will struggle. Indeed they’re at fairly long odds in most markets.
But their form at the moment is undeniably better than it was back in June, and surely they won’t fade out so dismally tonight.
On paper they have a clear advantage in the midfield, although obviously not in the ruck, so for mine they have a real chance tonight.
That said, Adelaide have been extremely impressive over the whole season. They showed last week when challenged by the Power that they can match determined, willing teams with their own resolve, and a little extra class.
At home, in front of an eager crowd, I’d expect the Crows to win tonight and come back in two weeks to host a final.
Join The Roar for live scores and a blog from 8:10pm AEST.
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