On paper, the New South Wales Blues actually have a stronger run-on side – and certainly a stronger match-day 17 – than the Maroons.
However, history shows Origin is all about who has the champion team rather than a team of champions. Look no further than the 1995 Queensland lineup. Even without their stars (out due to Super League war) they manufactured the greatest upset in Origin history to whitewash the series.
Billy Slater should be wearing the no.1 jersey, but Darius Boyd is still a better fullback than James Tedesco. The Broncos man is a better organiser and playmaker than his Wests Tigers counterpart and was the Maroons’ best in last year’s series triumph.
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Cooper Cronk is the best halfback in the game who hasn’t been ruled out of Origin 1 with a dodgy shoulder. There are plenty who’d take him over Johnathan Thurston too, given both players’ form this season.
Cronk will own this, throwing flat balls to Darius Boyd to exploit the NSW fullbacks playing in the centres.
The talk in the Queensland camp is that Anthony Milford will start, but then again the Maroons could just be bluffing.
Let’s assume Michael Morgan is the man who’ll start. He’s no Johnathan Thurston, but Morgan would still walk into the Blues side on the back of his current form.
What also can’t be underestimated is home ground advantage.
It’s even bigger in the cauldron of Suncorp Stadium. The intimidation factor is real when you consider the Maroons have only lost one of their past nine matches at home (Game 1 2014).
Many experts are claiming this is New South Wales’ best chance to win in Queensland.
(AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
Surely by now we know NEVER to write off Queensland.
Tim Gore reminded us yesterday that the Maroons still have more than 100 extra games of Origin experience at their disposal.
They might have a weaker forward pack at their disposal, but Cronk and Smith’s outstanding kicking games and organisational play will make up for any deficit up front. Their combination with the rest of spine, honed over many years of playing together at club, state and international level, is the stuff New South Wales fans can only dream of.
Having a strong forward pack will only take you so far – you need the players to capitalise on the grunt work done up front. Queensland have them. New South Wales? I’m not so sure.
That’s not to say messrs Smith and Cronk have nothing to work with in their pack. Matt Gillett is the best second-rower in the game. Josh Papalii isn’t too far behind.
Dylan Napa has been something of a red-hot, red-headed wrecking ball for the Roosters this year, and Nate Myles always saves his best footy for when he’s wearing maroon on a Wednesday night.
Add in Josh McGuire at lock, and it’s not as if the Maroons are going to field a pack full of mugs.
The last time Mitchell Pearce played for the Blues in Brisbane, New South Wales suffered their worst ever loss.
There’s no chance this game is going to be a bloodbath of those proportions. But Pearce hasn’t shown he has what it takes to direct his team around the park successfully come Origin time. Smith and Cronk have.
Because of that, Game 1 is going to Queensland.
Nathan
Guest
HAHAHAHA WRONG!!!!!!!!!
Slarti
Roar Rookie
Always nice to read articles like this - after the event.
tim
Guest
Well if anyone went out on a limb and ended up with egg on his face it was the author of this piece. I laughed when I saw the heading this morning while making my round of the news. :)
Robbie
Guest
Im a NSWelshman, but I don't know where this confidence of a whitewash is coming from. Slater needed to play for QLD, no question but they also have the best #1 in the NRL & Walters isnt silly enough to pick fullbacks to play in the centres. Mitchell Pearce is again in the squad & I have no confidence in him at Origin level he crumbles every year but NSW continue to pick him. We also have a new captain & don't doubt that there will be animosity among players, especially having Hayne in there. I think Qld have a better playing group & I think they will win by 12.
Steve
Guest
I wouldn't have him there at all, but if I'm bound to by the side they have picked I'd rather give more minutes to a better player - such as as anyone of Frizell, Graham or Trbojevic.
Emcie
Roar Guru
guess you weren't around when the teams were announced
Remo Shankar
Roar Pro
What's really interesting at the moment is that nobody in NSW has been writing off Queensland. If anything it's been quite qualified, cautious optimism. This then gets interpreted as 'writing Queensland off." I guess you just hear want you want to hear.
Remo Shankar
Roar Pro
Jackson is a starting forward - he's there for his defence, so why would you even remotely consider him as a bench player?
jacksyd
Guest
Why will QLD win? Mitchell Pearce to choke again.
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
I just went on-line and saw that tickets are selling fast. It'll be a full house. Mind you, they're discounting tickets now from the absurdly high prices before today. A lot of under-employment in Brisbane; businesses going broke or shutting down in the State. Food for the kids is top of mind.
kk
Roar Pro
BC, Should Queensland win it may be due to applied intelligence. The Maroons selected only the fittest, regardless of reputation. The Blues have gambled with the injury prone Hayne and Dugan both of whom may lack game time in preparation for Suncorp. The NSW chances rest with #'s 6-17 and a big improvement in the error stat as outlined by Tim Gore. Blues by 7.
Taree Raider
Guest
The ticket sales have shown me who will win. As of Tuesday night there were 12000 unsold tickets. I thought that Brisbane was the home of Rugby Leauge. That's right it is the home of the most loyal 'winning' supporters. The fans know the Maroon's have no chance. I wonder how many tickets would be sold if NSW win 11 out of the next 12 series? A/ None. I have waited 12 long, long years for a NSW whitewash, each year I console myself in the fact that Smith, Cronk, Slater & Thurston will one day get too old & too slow. That hasn't happened yet, however with only two of the four there, QLD are no chance. Bring it on.
Emcie
Roar Guru
Milf will start, Morgan's a far better utility option than milf and if you're going to start Morgan anyway why even select Milf?
Longarm
Guest
I reckon the last time I saw QLD written off this hard by the NSW media and fans in the lead up was game 3 2015 at Lang park. NSW got belted 52-6 Ah that was a great game to be at
Craig
Guest
I disagree that the blues have a stronger run on side. QLD are definitely stronger in the 1, 7, 9 and in my opinion also stronger in the 6, 11, 12 but I agree thats debatable. The outside backs are fairly even IMO, O'Neil probably the weakest, but the biggest unknown is Hayne who could be awful and worse than O'Neil (as his form suggests) or he could be brilliant as per past origins. Fifita and Frizell are the only NSW starting players I would say is definitely stronger than his opposite number. The real advantage for NSW is their bench. Although Morgan has been in form the last couple of weeks, I think all 4 are stronger than their QLD opposites. 8. Klemmer 9. Peats 10. Fifita 11. Cordner 12. Graham 13. Trbojevic IMO this would be a much stronger starting pack. I wouldn't be surprised to see Graham start and Frizell move to the bench but I can't see them moving Woods to the bench. IMO Graham, Frizell and Trbojevic are their best three backrowers and NSW crazily have 2 them on the bench. Note, I'm a QLDer and very happy that Cordner and Jackson are in the run on side.