State of Origin 1 preview: Where State of Origin 1 will be won and lost

By Ryan O'Connell / Expert

The opening game of the 2017 State of Origin series kicks off in Brisbane tonight.

Though there remains a plethora of familiar names lining up for both Queensland and New South Wales, there is a slight feeling that we’re witnessing the dawn of a new generation of Origin football.

Injuries and age make the Maroons team feel a little different to what we have become accustomed to, while a retirement and the selection of new blood ensure that the Blues will take the field without their long-standing captain and vice-captain, respectively.

State of Origin Game 1 coverage
» Blues annihilate Maroons to steal series opener
» State of Origin scores, highlights, result
» WATCH: James Maloney opens the scoring with an early try
» WATCH: Commentators forget where the game’s being played
» WATCH: Jarryd Hayne and Cooper Cronk trade moments of brilliance
» WATCH: Mitchell Pearce knocked out in sickening collision

There is always a lot of anticipation and build-up to an Origin series, but this year’s comes more with a slight touch of intrigue, as fans ponder what type of game they can expect when names such as Billy Slater, Johnathan Thurston, Greg Inglis, Paul Gallen and Robbie Farah are all absent.

Who holds the advantage, and where?
Looking at the teams that will take to the field on Wednesday night, it strikes me that NSW will need to maximise the advantages they have over Queensland.

The Maroons hold a distinct advantage over the Blues in the key positions of hooker and halfback. Few teams in history would be able to hold a candle to the duo of Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk, and the 2017 Blues are no exception.

Nathan Peats will be making his Origin debut, and Mitchell Pearce will . . . well, let’s just say that his Origin record makes for uglier reading than a Phil Gould centrefold. If this positional battle were a head-to-head fight, the Blues would be wise to apply for a mercy ruling before proceedings even got underway.

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

If you include the other position in the spine – the fullback – the Maroons once again come out of on top, but Darius Boyd over James Tedesco isn’t a the most gaping hole you’ll come across, in terms of the gulf in talent.

However, a look across the rest of the park suggests the Blues hold the advantage almost everywhere else.

Anthony Milford is on debut and has been wildly inconsistent this season, while Jimmy Maloney is the reigning Dally M five-eighth of the year, a reigning premier, in very good form, and has had some good Origin games under his belt during his career.

I have major question marks over the Maroon centres and wingers, and would give Blake Ferguson, Josh Dugan, Jarryd Hayne and Brett Morris an almighty tick over the quartet of Corey Oates, Will Chambers, Justin O’Neill and Dane Gagai.

In the backrow, both teams come with plenty of talent, and the match-up of Josh Jackson, Boyd Cordner and Tyson Frizell, against Matt Gillett, Josh Papalii and Josh McGuire will be worth the price of admission alone. However, I give NSW a slight edge.

Meanwhile, upfront, the prop battle between Aaron Woods/Andrew Fifita and Dylan Napa/Nate Myles should be a ripper too, but Fifita’s form gives NSW another win on paper.

On the benches, David Klemmer, Wade Graham, Jake Trbojevic and Jack Bird give NSW an eclectic and electric reserves squad. While the Maroons’ Sam Thaiday, Aidan Guerra, Jacon Lillyman and Michael Morgan is damn pretty impressive too. It’s a bit of a coin toss this one, but the Maroons experience probably give them a small advantage.

So all in all, there are some areas of strength for NSW, and they need to ensure they play to them.

As ever, the poise, maturity, experience, class, patience and ability of Smith and Cronk hold the key here. For all the talk of NSW having some advantages to exploit, the Australian hooker and halfback may not let them. That’s just how good they are.

NSW must be mentally strong if they want to win
The other danger for NSW is if they fail to control their emotions.

As mentioned above, for the first time I can recall in recent history, I think NSW might actually head into an Origin game with the better team on paper. The loss of Thurston and Inglis through injury, and the decision not to select Slater, ensures this Maroons team is nowhere near as fearsome as it has been.

Given that, if NSW simply play to their potential, they can – and should – win this match.

(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

Here’s the clichéd catch though: the game isn’t played on paper. It’s played on the field, and that field just happens to be in Brisbane.

Suncorp Stadium is an intimidating fortress for the Maroons, and the parochial crowd can lift its local heroes to great feats, while also wilting the opposition. It will be loud. It will be daunting. It will be menacing.

Suncorp will become a living, breathing organism, and the Blues will be fighting the crowd as much as they will be the Maroons.

That tension that is created can do funny things to players. Normally accurate passes can miss their mark. Reliable goal kickers can have an off night. Rock-steady nerves can suddenly be a little frayed.

Then there are the heightened emotions that make players do irrational things like throw a punch, or get overly-niggly in a tackle. Such mental errors can prove extremely costly.

NSW need to stay focussed and control their emotions. If they don’t, Queensland will capitalise, and in the blink of an eye, the game will be over.

Prediction
I think this NSW team may just surprise a few people, and pull off a victory in Game 1.

NSW: 19
Queensland: 12

The Crowd Says:

2017-06-02T13:46:18+00:00

Dr Yes

Guest


Wowsers! Right on the money. Some crystal ball you have.

AUTHOR

2017-06-02T05:29:40+00:00

Ryan O'Connell

Expert


There are a number of comments here that haven't aged well . . .

AUTHOR

2017-06-02T05:27:41+00:00

Ryan O'Connell

Expert


There was a lot of NSW support there, I must say. It is a shame I missed it - I would have liked to experience the full-blown passion of a fierce Lang Park. It was great to have a beer at The Caxton as well! Even better that it was a celebratory one!

2017-06-01T09:54:14+00:00

V.O.R.

Guest


It's a shame in a way that for your first visit you couldn't experience the atmosphere that once was. It was just incredible. Here I go getting nostalgic. I'd say you've missed the hostility by 5 or 6 years. Getting flogged last night wouldn't of helped. Still, in the past the crowd would be baying for penalties, championing the Maroons during their on-line defense etc. I hardly heard a sustained Queensland chant last night. When I did it was usually in response to an enthusiastic NSW contingent getting vocal. A history of winning probably hasn't helped. Too much of a good thing. Dare I say it the diehards have got lazy or maybe they can't justify the expense. Either way those guys who traditionally have started the clarion call are no longer there. Prices for the lower main stands inhibit the zealotry that comes with the outer suburbs battler. Never would of those sections be half empty with fifteen minutes to go. It looked like Homebush. Ha! Never thought I would see the day. Walking to the car, my night was topped off by a bunch of NSW hipsters singing Oasis's "Don't look back in anger" and I thought to myself, know that is quite apt from several angles. ;)

AUTHOR

2017-06-01T08:39:58+00:00

Ryan O'Connell

Expert


I won't lie, I thought it would be more hostile. Not dangerous or feral or anything like that, but just a bit more intimidating. Amazing stadium though. Really well designed.

2017-06-01T07:03:34+00:00

V.O.R.

Guest


You picked a good one. Gotta say there is more blue in the crowd every year. Must be the good weather. I almost spat out my XXXX when the announcer at the ground told everyone to put their hands together for Jarryd Hayne. It's a far cry from poor old Micheal O'Connor dodging beer cans. ;) I look forward to your next article mate. Cheers.

AUTHOR

2017-06-01T06:32:16+00:00

Ryan O'Connell

Expert


I was actually at the game as well, mate. My first Origin in Brisbane. Nice little bucket list ticked! It was a very impressive win, with a ridiculous completion rate by NSW. Can't remember a win like that in Queensland.

2017-06-01T05:26:13+00:00

V.O.R.

Guest


Ha, ha...well done mate. I hope you are having a nice day. I was at the game and it hurt to watch such a shellacking at the Cauldron. I do however believe your fellow contributor Mr. Gore may be getting a little ahead of himself. Good luck for game 2. You guys will need it. ;)

AUTHOR

2017-05-31T22:57:40+00:00

Ryan O'Connell

Expert


Good morning

2017-05-31T10:45:59+00:00

Renegade

Roar Guru


I don't think there's a single person on earth that would not pick Maloney in the halves for NSW....

2017-05-31T10:00:13+00:00

Rob

Guest


Ball control will play a big part. Smash away, but if your wonderfully superior players make mistakes they will be tested by some quality ball players in the Maroon jerseys.

2017-05-31T09:54:47+00:00

Jock Cornet

Guest


Myles and Thaiday you're having a laugh.

2017-05-31T09:48:31+00:00

Rob

Guest


Dugan can't or won't. Opposition wingers and centres can back themselves against any slick hands on Dugan's edge.

2017-05-31T09:45:30+00:00

Jock Cornet

Guest


Blues by 20+. Milford to have a horror and Cordner Frizzell and Fifita to score tries . The blues backline to much firepower. No slater a big mistake.

2017-05-31T09:35:46+00:00

Rob

Guest


A bit like Australia in India last cricket tour? The crowd can be a factor as well as the DRS and Bunker unfortunately now days.

2017-05-31T09:27:39+00:00

Rob

Guest


Agree OB. Captain Peptide is a big loss for the Queensland team. J. Trbojevic is an absolute star in my opinion. He is everything Gallen wasn't. The biggest thing in SOO for me is ticker and I'm not sure Milford, Morgan, O'neil and Boyd are the same sort of combative competitive type characters Thurston, Hodges, Parker, Scott and Slater are. Skill is not a problem it's whether Queensland's new boys can harness the passion and desire to win that will be the big question.

2017-05-31T08:40:59+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


Only if you consider 11 years to be 'of late'....?

2017-05-31T06:31:13+00:00

Magnus M. Østergaard

Roar Guru


100% and it gets an us against them mentatlity going and seems to be working of late.

2017-05-31T06:15:45+00:00

The Barry

Roar Guru


Will Myles, Lillyman, Napa, McGuire and Thaiday get smashed? It's pretty clear they're not as good as NSW's middle third but they won't get smashed. They only need 30-35 mins out of Myles and he steps up at Origin time every year. Ditto Lillyman.

2017-05-31T06:11:46+00:00

Bunney

Roar Rookie


I can't see it. Quality ball from each ruck is crucial - this was one of the key criticisms of Farah; if he passed to the correct person it was too often a lolly or behind the man instead of a bullet to the chest, but he often threw to the wrong guy too. So if you're choosing between two meathead second rowers (who are excellent at that job) vs a guy whose best position (arguably) is at 5/8 - who is more likely to A) be able to pass best and B) read the game and make the correct decision who to pass it to? I would go option Bird every time. Plus, the guy is a gun. NSW would be better served with him on the field for as much time as possible.

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