Geelong are the great survivors. Going back to 2004, they have only missed finals twice, still finishing a respectable tenth both times, and have won three premiership from four grand finals, with another five preliminary final berths earned.
From the Cats’ 2004 preliminary final loss to Brisbane, only Gary Ablett remains – and think of all that he has achieved between now and then.
From the 2007 premiership, only Ablett and Joel Selwood, then in his first season, survive.
It’s a remarkable record, surpassed only by the Sydney Swans for consistency. Geelong truly are the team of the century.
After missing the finals in 2015, the Cats added Patrick Dangerfield, who launched them back into preliminary finals in 2016-17, both times after finishing second on the ladder. They’ve been one game away from grand finals, but in truth been thumped both times, and on each occasion by the losing grand finalist.
So, are they close to the next flag, or does it just seem like they are? Enter Gary Ablett once more.
B: Jed Bews Lachie Henderson Jake Kolodjashnij
HB: Zach Tuohy Harry Taylor Tom Stewart
C: Mitch Duncan Patrick Dangerfield Tim Kelly
HF: Sam Menegola Tom Hawkins Nakia Cockatoo
F: James Parsons Daniel Menzel Lincoln McCarthy
Foll: Zac Smith Joel Selwood Gary Ablett
Int: Mark Blicavs Cam Guthrie Scott Selwood Brendan Parfitt
Em: Rhys Stanley Zach Guthrie Stewart Crameri
The Cats have lost three players from last year’s finals series, the retired Andrew Mackie and Tom Lonergan, and Steven Motlop in a free agency move to Port Adelaide.
Ablett is the main addition, of course, while Stewart Crameri has been rookie listed to add depth to the forward line mix. Tim Kelly looks likely to get his chance as a mature age draftee that has impressed over summer.
Gary Ablett (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
Harry Taylor will surely move back after mixed fortunes as a forward, so that will cover Lonergan’s loss quite easily. This also enables Geelong to play a smaller forward line that can apply more pressure – lack of pressure was the reason given why Daniel Menzel was dropped for the qualifying final against Richmond last year, so we can assume it has been an off-season focus.
Ablett coming in replaces Motlop’s departure in a mid-forward role, and should add more in both parts of the ground. Lincoln McCarthy, a natural crumber with good hands and a sharp mind, is a favourite of the coaches, and will be picked if fit in a small forward role. Enhanced responsibility for Nakia Cockatoo and Brendan Parfitt also helps cover the loss of Motlop.
Tom Hawkins will continue to do what he does, mixing deep forward with pushing up the ground, get his 50 goals a year and being the vital presence around which the forward half revolves. He looked sharp last year for the most part.
Can Menzel add another dimension to his game, or is he just a finisher? He still needs to find more consistency. Will Crameri fit into the best 22, or is he just there to break glass in case of emergency? Rhys Stanley has always been in and out, as a spare forward and back-up ruck.
Andrew Mackie’s run from half-back might be the hardest to replace. Jed Bews isn’t capable. Jake Kolodjashnij doesn’t win enough football at this stage of his career. Zach Tuohy was superb last year, and will carry on.
Tom Stewart turned out to be a solid AFL citizen, adept at defence or attack from the back half, but is still in therapy after the nightmares Dustin Martin gave him on the finals stage. To be fair to him, it’s a group session made up of various players from 17 different clubs.
The midfield is where it’s at for Geelong though.
Dangerfield. Ablett. Selwood. Here at The Roar, we adjudged them three of the best 12 players in the competition heading into 2018.
Joel Selwood (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
How much time they all spend together in the midfield is one of the big questions of this season. If Chris Scott doesn’t start all three in the centre bounce when they first play together, then he’s a party pooper with no sense of theatre. Dangerfield has suffered a hamstring injury that has put his Round 1 prospects in doubt.
Dangerfield and Ablett are the most natural goal-kickers of the three superstars, both very different in how they operate inside forward 50, which will mean concentration from opposition defences will have to be at an all-time high when they’re resting forward.
Mitch Duncan is the best fourth banana in the league, and was rated as high as 28 in our aforementioned top 50. In any conversation about the best kick in the league, Duncan’s name must be front and centre.
The midfield support cast consists of ball magnet Sam Menegola, ruck workhorse Zac Smith, running tall Mark Blicavs, Cam Guthrie who can get used in defensive roles, and Scott Selwood, professional tackler. It’s a decent grouping of good ordinary players.
Geelong does look to lack a little speed, which is perhaps why they get exposed on the bigger grounds at times. Last year Gold Coast beat them convincingly at Metricon, and they don’t always look their best at the MCG – since their 2011 premiership they’ve lost six of their eight finals at the home of football.
The Cats have some of the best top-end talent in the league, all of them mature, while their bottom end looks somewhat plain, and also quite inexperienced.
Geelong has arguably the most unique home ground advantage in the league, and has six walk-up start victories coming from their nine games at Kardinia Park this season. Their other three matches there are against Sydney, Greater Western Sydney and Melbourne.
The toughest part of their season comes through the bye period, with games against Richmond at the MCG, Western Bulldogs at Etihad, and then Sydney at the SCG off a six-day break – and back-to-back travel taking on Adelaide in South Australia. All four games, against expected strong opponents, are at the opposition home ground.
Geelong will be part of the finals conversation once again in 2018, for that is who they are. The question now is whether Gary Ablett can bridge the gap between also-ran finalist and Joel Selwood standing on the premiership dias with a cup in his hand on the last Saturday in September.
Prediction – fourth
Cam Rose’s AFL ladder prediction
5: Richmond Tigers
6: Melbourne Demons
7: Greater Western Sydney
8. Essendon
9. Hawthorn
10. Collingwood
11. Western Bulldogs
12. St Kilda
13. West Coast
14. North Melbourne
15. Fremantle
16. Brisbane
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast
Joe
Guest
If Gregson has a successful return from injury he'll be ahead of Parsons or Parfitt, and Thurlow's ahead of Zach Guthrie, but that is a pretty good attempt at our best 22. I'm confident our list is good enough to win the flag if our small forward line isn't decimated by injuries again (Ablett and Kelly might be handy too). The question is on our bottom line, blokes like Bews, Kolo and Thurlow, and our perennially injured small forwards. If they play with more consistency, all the people saying we "have no youth" and "only have a midfield" will shut up quick. "Andrew Mackie’s run from half-back might be the hardest to replace. Jed Bews isn’t capable." Bews has serious leg speed, just needs to be cooler with the ball under pressure.
Kris’
Guest
Cats are seventh this year
Kris’s Aussie rules
Guest
The cats are special to come top 4 and win the flag for Gazza
Ditto
Guest
Wow, I'm flattered that there's people out there that are noticing. The teams that remain are, Port Adelaide, Adelaide and Sydney, the positions to be filled are, 1, 5 and 6.
Jane
Guest
Surely not 1st...
John
Guest
Excited to see where the Crows end in your list!
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Momentum shifts have been a huge feature of the game for a few years now across most teams. It can be about maximising the length and amount of damage you do in them. Previously when I've pondered about an AFLX-type/short form game, I've thought about a "Power Play" idea, where the coach/captain could call for a "Power Play" (maybe 1 per period of play) for say 5 minutes and they get 9 points instead of 6 for each goal they kick in that time. Therefore gaining maximum capitalisation on those momentum shifts your way and also promoting coaches to go all out attack and at least have those plays in their bag of tricks (and possibly more available in the regular season).
Ditto
Guest
I just can't see this team being competitive against good teams away from Kardinia Park and look vulnerable against not so good teams. I've pegged them 7th on the basis of winning at home and scraping enough besides, but look the least likely to make an impact in finals.
Rex
Guest
Crows in 6th - interesting!
Brendon the 1st
Guest
Can a team win a premiership on the back of a supreme midfield alone? I don't think they can so Crameri becomes important for the Cats, if he were to kick 35 goals, Menzel kicks about the same and tomahawk kicks his 50 then the Cats will go OK. However if Cramer struggles and Henderson's injury problems continue then that really only leaves Hawkins up front and Taylor down back, the two ends look quite weak. They'll be thereabouts, but they'll need some luck with injuries plus a couple of there b-graders like Parfitt and Stewart to turn into A-grader to have any shot at the big show.
Thatsashame
Guest
The midfield alone gets them top 4. But how far they go will depend on injuries to their smaller forwards, Nakia being the biggest key (even though he isnt really small). They had injuries to all their small forwards ast year. If the list stay healthy, this team can go all the way.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
Love the concept of the Power Play. This sums up the Crows perfectly. It was funny watching the opposition coach's presser after a game where they lost. A fair chunk of them stated "If it wasn't for that burst in the 1st/2nd/3rd/4th quarter we actually were pretty close/won the game". Which would make me laugh as that 'burst" (from hence forth called a 'Power Play') was normally 6-10 goals unanswered :-) I was still expecting that Power Play burst in the GF - even in the last quarter. But it just never came :-(
User
Roar Rookie
Wouldn't dispute Geelong managing to finish 4th at end of h&a, I have them somewhere between 4-7. Still don't see them making the gf regardless of how good the midfield looks, to be premiership fancies they need to win after bye weeks something they can't seem to do. Anyway I'll see all the Geelong fans in a couple of weeks were our banter is sure to increase.
reuster75
Roar Rookie
"Score when you’re hot, defend when you’re not." That should be tattoooed permantly on chris Scott's forehead so he sees it every time he looks in the mirror. We are at our best when we we play a fast attacking style of footy and the first half of 2016 demonstrated this but since then we've only done it occassionally and have become very conservative with our ball movement. I know that was done to protect our defense but geez it's boring to watch and hasn't worked anyway. I would like to see Ablett and Dangerfield constantly rotate through the forward line (one at a time), with Selwood and Duncan the core midfield. Get the ball into the forward 50 as quickly as possible, leave Hawkins down there permanently and let the others crumb off him. If it doesn't work so be it but the alternative has been shown not to work either.
mattyb
Guest
Really looking forward to seeing how Tim Kelly goes at the Cats. I can see him being recruit of the year.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
I probably won't have time to comment on any of the remaining bridesmaids, so thanks again for a fantastic preview series, Cam. The Cats' most significant issues this year will be: 1. Midfield Zonal Defence 2. Power Play 3. Switch Defence The Cats' inability to contain the Tiges out wide, in their first final, highlighted their main weakness. The width of the 'G partly attributed to this, but it also reinforced the worth of closing down the 'mark' — something the Tiges do exceptionally well. I was not impressed at all how quickly the Tiges were in the Cats' face, mitigating their ability to backdoor release. They need to work on their blocking techniques in 3-on-3 battles (very similar to the breakdown in Rugby) allowing more time to release to an outside runner/defensive offset player who can then dump kick to safety, if required, down the line. They addressed these issues well against the Swans, but it was too late once they faced Adelaide on their home turf. Power Play I'll do an article hopefully on this soon, but here's a taster. Power Play I see becoming more relevant now that there are no real weak teams. The days of resting against basement dwellers are over, nor can a group expect to maintain high-pressure, contested footy throughout the season, or even an entire match. Score when you're hot, defend when you're not. The Hawks did it best at their peak. They piled on the pain in short burst, as did the Crows last year. The Tiges & Bulldogs strangle you; however, this isn't sustainable, which is probably why the Tiges will be joining the Bulldogs out of the eight soon enough (sorry Cam). The Cats have an incredible offensive capability. Four quarter efforts are a thing of the past. Win a game in 30 minutes if you can — something the Cats have the potential to do. Switch The Cats' inability to stretch the Tigers' zone from the thin to fat side rapidly is what cost them. An abundance of skill and fortitude is required to crack such an evolved defence. On the wide expanses of the 'G... you better be exceptional at this. The Cats were not, which is why they failed again in the finals. Tempo football is often required but coupled with unpredictable forward play to be effective. A fit Cockatoo and Ablett will add this element. Conversely, fast attacking football, is best served, with structure. Hawkins and Menzel will provide the backbone here. It appears counterintuitive when you look at those players, but this is how the Cats can win on the 'G with consistency, I believe. Conclusion As strange as this sounds, the only two teams I'm concerned about are the Pies and Freo. The Crows will be a handful, but if they stay away from Adelaide Oval when it counts, they'll be fine. GO CATS!
tim
Guest
Last year when they beat the crows at home 8 to 10 of their second tier players played games at 20% above their afl ranking average. They couldn't repeat it in their next 2 games aganst the crows and they got thumped both times. Adding Gsry Ablett isn't going to fix this. Getting more out of their second tier players is the only way they can have an impact in the finals.
Sachit Dassanayake
Roar Rookie
I would love Gaz to, namely HTH ;)
truetigerfan
Guest
Very good appraisal, Cameron. Walk up starters for finals. Beyond finals a 2nd - 8th finish. What a midfield! Hope little Gazza sticks it right up the doubters!
JW
Guest
I agree. If Ablett, dangerfield and Selwood all fire then top 4 is a strong chance but if 1 has injury troubles (and dangerfield and Ablett have already had minor setbacks) then the rest of the team doesn’t look that strong relative to the other top 4 candidates.