It’s almost time. In three hours (or probably three hours and, like, 19 minutes, depending on what time kick-off actually takes place) State of Origin will begin for another year.
As has been the case just about every year, Queensland are putting their backs up against the wall thanks to a raft of injuries, meaning the Blues head into Game 1 as pretty comfortable favourites. That’s despite having a whopping 11 debutants, a new coach, and only one series victory in the last decade.
All the wash-up from State of Origin 1:
» GORE: Gritty Queensland hurt by two key missed calls
» The funniest State of Origin ratings on the internet
» How the Blues fared at the MCG: NSW Game 1 player ratings
» How the Maroons performed: Queensland Game 1 player ratings
» State of Origin highlights and match report
So to help you get the good oil on who’s actually going to win the series opener at the MCG, we’ve pooled the knowledge of our stable of rugby league writers and asked them who they reckon will win, what the margin will be, who they’ve got for first try-scorer and man of the match, and a few other tidbits.
Read on!
Who will win: New South Wales
Margin: 8 points
Player of the match: James Maloney
First try scorer: ‘Jimmy the Jet’ – James Roberts
One thing that definitely will happen: Dane Gagai will score at least one try
One thing that definitely won’t happen: Queensland will not score more than 12 points
Who will win: Queensland
Margin: 2 points
Player of the match: Cameron Munster
First try scorer: Valentine Holmes
One thing that definitely will happen: Near-perfect completions
One thing that definitely won’t happen: An open, free-flowing game that ends 32-30
Who will win: The mighty Blues
Margin: 14 points
Player of the match: James Maloney
First try scorer: Josh Addo-Carr
One thing that definitely will happen: The loser will leave the country.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: There will be no last-gasp Queensland comeback. You can’t win the game at the death when you’re 14 points behind.
Who will win: New South Wales
Margin: 8 points
Player of the match: Nathan Cleary
First try scorer: Josh Addo-Carr
One thing that definitely will happen: Boring pessimists who hate being happy will whinge about the refereeing.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: Universal congratulations and kudos to the referees for calling a good game.
Who will win: New South Wales
Margin: 4 points
Player of the match: Damien Cook
First try scorer: Latrell Mitchell
One thing that definitely will happen: A free-flowing, fast-paced game. In other words, a very different encounter to the ones Cameron Smith has controlled for Queensland.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: Channel Nine’s commentators being completely free of any bias for 80 minutes and their hours of pre and post-match ‘analysis.’
Who will win: New South Wales
Margin: 20 points
Player of the match: Damien Cook
First try scorer: Josh Addo-Carr
One thing that definitely will happen: Queensland’s forwards being exposed, particularly Dylan Napa.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: People calling for the return of Josh Dugan, Blake Ferguson and Aaron Woods.
Who will win: Queensland
Margin: 8 points
Player of the match: Cameron Munster
First try scorer: Will Chambers
One thing that definitely will happen: I will lock myself in my dishwasher at full-time on a 120-day wash cycle in the hope I return South Australian.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: Me ever believing in anything ever again. Unless NSW win, of course, then this is the greatest state on god’s green earth and Origin is dead because we will never lose again, ever.
Who will win: New South Wales
Margin: 8 points
Player of the match: Reagan Campbell-Gillard
First try scorer: Greg Inglis
One thing that definitely will happen: David Klemmer will have free licence once he takes to the field… and he’ll use it.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: The Melbourne crowd screaming at referees to ‘get em onside’. It’s too difficult to follow.
Who will win: Queensland. Queensland always win.
Margin: With three seconds remaining.
Player of the match: A Trbojevic
First try scorer: The other Trbojevic
One thing that definitely will happen: A Melbourne spectator will claim they’ve shown up to watch a game of ‘rugby’.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: Any Melbourne reader understanding the point I just made in my previous answer.
Who will win: New South Wales, as was the case last year, will provide an entire state with a few weeks’ worth of (what is likely false) hope by prevailing over a Queensland team that appears to be held together by band-aids.
Margin: Again, much like last year, the Blues will come out hungry and put on a cricket score… Well, a NSW Origin cricket score – let’s say they’ll get up by 10-12 points.
Player of the match: Boyd Cordner has admittedly played below his usual high standards this season, but Phil Gould’s suggestion he doesn’t deserve to be there will have him fired up. Kid’ll play a classic captain’s knock.
First try scorer: Valentine Holmes. He can argue that he’s a fullback ’til the cows come home, but the fact is he’s the best winger in the game and – if his efforts for the Kangaroos in the World Cup are anything to go by – will probably end his career with a thousand representative meat pies.
One thing that definitely will happen: James Roberts will do something magic to have NSW fans screaming at their telly in jubilation.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: James Roberts will be error-free and at no stage have NSW fans screaming at their telly in frustration.
Who will win: New South Wales
Margin: 13 points
Player of the match: David Klemmer
First try scorer: Boyd Cordner
One thing that definitely will happen: Greg Inglis and Will Chambers will have their hands full with the New South Wales centre pairing of James Roberts and Latrell Mitchell.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: The referees make it through the game in anonymity thanks to perfect interpretations in all the key moments.
Wayne
Roar Guru
Blues by 14 (36-22), Mitchell for first try. Will happen: Commentators will bang on about Slater/Smith/Gallen not playing. Won't happen: Soft Sin Bin. Please no soft sin bins
souvalis
Guest
Who cares what NSW press think..really...you can’t keep living your life in the past son...no matter how dark the future looks..?
KenoathCarnt
Guest
Munster is King!
TigerMike
Guest
NSW should win butt... If they lose it'll be coz of players they picked from .....
KenoathCarnt
Guest
Musnter is King!
Peter
Guest
Silly boy. I only need to look as far back as last year. How'd the series go again? And NSW scribes are already babbling about a ten-year dynasty. :-)
AJ Mithen
Expert
Game one is game one. Everything from there, that’s a different story...
jimmmy
Guest
I love ya confidence PNG. I am fired up now.
souvalis
Guest
The only thing that matters is now..and the only fear I smell is yours...hold onto your scrap books from 1980 and dream of what once was....
3 recalcitrant monkeys
Guest
36 -0 to Queensland This is the only score I ever want every origin . That's right the last 13 years have been below expectations . Player of the match - GI What will happen - GI to turn it up to 10 What won't.- no HIA. No neutral crowd or either NSW centres troubling QLD 1st try scorer josh maguire
Peter
Guest
So NSW are raging redhot roaring favourites. same same every year since 1980. How's that worked out for you so far? And underneath you're all just a little afraid of a Coyne moment... :-)
Matt P
Roar Rookie
That's right, Munster was only MoM last Origin and Macca's only played 225 NRL games. Hardly any experience at all...
Swannies
Guest
Blues by 30 points. Maroons are too old and slow.
Big mick
Guest
Blues about 16 -6 Plenty of ruck dominance and dummy half runs. from the blues. I expect quite a conservative first half. Game 2 once the young blues have had a run under their belt will see the blowout score that some are calling for game in 1. FWIW the last Smith less game a few weeks back was when Manly did Storm at Aami 24-4........ For those who are talking up the dangers of all the blues rookies the QLD spine of Morgan ( at fullback)Munster Hunt and Mcculloch aint exactly loaded with experience....
Nat
Roar Guru
I will find that rock...
Nat
Roar Guru
AJ! Where's the faith brother? Don't get caught up in the hype.
Stuart Thomas
Expert
You do realise if this goes pair shaped we will both be looking for a rock to hide under? Pick the kids said Thomas. We'll smash 'em said Rock.
Tom Rock
Expert
That'll be by halftime.
Stuart Thomas
Expert
34+......wow. This I gotta see!
steveng
Roar Rookie
Who will win: NSW Margin: 34+ Players of the match: Damien Cook and Nathan Cleary First try scorer: Josh Addo-Carr or Jimi-Jet One thing that definitely will happen: Queensland will lose! One thing that definitely won’t happen: That Queensland will win and thank god that Mitchell Pierce, Josh Dugan, Blake Ferguson and Aaron Woods are not in the side. Go the Blues!!!!