Go on, admit it. Like me and any number of others, you had Ryan James suiting up this Sunday for New South Wales.
After all, the Titans captain was actually packed and booked on a flight to Melbourne for Game 1, before Brad Fittler pulled the rug from under him, deciding to run with Canterbury-Bankstown’s David Klemmer.
So when the Roosters’ Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (unintentionally) broke Blues starter Reagan Campbell-Gillard’s jaw, surely James was a natural progression. Surely.
Maybe you even pegged Tariq Sims to get a shot. Paul Vaughan could move up off the bench. I was even wondering if Shannon Boyd might get a late, late call-up.
But Matt Prior? Why was the Cronulla-Sutherland veteran even in the 20? He’s too old and unremarkable, too out of whack with coach Fittler’s ‘fresh and new, moving forward’ ethos.
Nope. Fittler keeps the selection surprises coming, with Prior getting a most unexpected starting nod for Game 2.
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Losing a spot to someone who wasn’t even in the Game 1 squad and was barely mentioned in dispatches will not make James feel any better about himself, particularly after the strong performances he’s put in since that initial disappointment.
In the words of the experts and the coach himself, James had done everything that had been asked of him.
But harsh as it is on James, Prior is the right choice for Sunday night.
I do have to raise my hand – until Prior decimated the Raiders in the 2016 finals, I hadn’t paid him much attention. As far as I was concerned, he was an honest toiler going about his business who’d never performed like that before and was unlikely to ever again.
I’d never thought of Prior for Origin and I’m pretty comfortable saying I wasn’t on my own there. Even when he made the squad, he didn’t garner a lot of attention.
But that was grossly unfair, ignoring a career of consistently high-quality output from a team man who is loved by those he plays alongside.
It was a brutally tough choice for Fittler. He wanted to select players in form, he got two. He wanted predictable, reliable, genuine front-rower options, he’s got two worthy exponents.
Surely James copping that recent rough deal was in the back of his mind as well.
Ryan James (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
If going by numbers is your thing, not much separates James and Prior. There has been a lot made of Prior’s age in the context of NSW wiping the selection table clean. Prior is 31, James is 26, but this is Prior’s Origin debut, meaning Fittler will have given 12 players their first Blues cap in 2018.
That’s a massive number and Fittler clearly wants someone in there who has experience in big games, on and off the field.
And this is where Prior’s resume gets to the top of the pile of applicants. His credentials are first class: two premierships, with St George and Cronulla respectively, a career winning percentage of 58 per cent over 216 games, and a reputation for delivering on the game’s biggest stages.
He’s perfect for what the Blues need to shut out Queensland and take the series, by helping to keep things on rails when the pressure is at its most intense.
Prior is no stranger to pressure or other unexpected scenarios – in Round 8, he checked out of hospital after a few days of treatment for a blood infection on a Friday, landed on the Gold Coast that night, played almost 60 minutes the next day against the Titans, then left the ground half an hour after the siren to get back to his partner, who was due to give birth to their first child (she gave birth to a girl a little while after).
He won’t be bothered by the likes of Dylan Napa, Josh McGuire or Jarrod Wallace.
Prior is a rock in defence who gets up into the attacker’s face quickly and leaves a mark when he gets there. He runs hard and is going just as hard at the end of games as he was at the start, and when he gets into a groove, it takes more than a few members of the defensive line to bring him down.
His prop work is much like Campbell-Gillard’s, the man he replaced. It’s not the overly sexy stuff, it’s solid fundamentals with a timely sidestep and a quality offload.
To coin a phrase, he might just be built for Origin.
Sunday night will be probably the most high-pressure environment these players will experience. There’s a real need for someone who has been at the coalface, with a stadium full of screaming fans who expect you to win.
In the world of these brand-new, fresh, young and hip Blues, Fittler knows that with Prior he’ll get reliable, old-school grunt up the middle against a desperate Queensland side.
Dutski
Roar Guru
Pick-teased. Hahahahaha
Ben
Roar Guru
Prior should've been picked years ago.
Trenno
Guest
As a QLDer I was kinda hoping they would pick James because he didn’t have any big game experience. Priors won 2 premierships and did a number on my Cowboys for the Sharks on 2016. I hate to say it but it’s actually the right choice. Hope we keep him quiet on Sunday night.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Like a few others the main surprise I have is that it seems like a departure from Freddy's self confessed clear-the-decks- strategy. James is definitely unlucky. He was really good on the weekend and against the tough Souths pack last week. NOt only does he keep missing out, he keeps getting pick-teased about it... Prior will get the job done but James would have been a better pick for mine. RCG has a bit of impact about him but you could argue that either Prior or James is an upgrade at this stage of RCG's career. He landed on his back a lot in his first spell in game one and in his second spell he did help lift NSW's aggression and intensity there was a lot of running around like a headless chook and being third or fourth man in on tackles. I certainly wouldn't be picking Sims as a middle third forward to replace RCG.
Remo Shankar
Roar Pro
Prior in for James is a big departure from the whole philosophy Freddie has been pushing for this team. It's a very conservative option. Instead of throwing even more attack at Queensland he's opted for an experienced and solid player. I'm sure Prior won't let anyone down, but I'm a little disappointed with this selection and the message that it's sending. Also, the way Ryan James has been treated is really poor.
BA Sports
Roar Guru
Agree. And (while purely anecdotal), James tackles make more of a dent in the opponent. Prior might not miss many, but I have seen on at least two ocaisons this season when he has been the player next to the yawning gap on his tryline and he just hasn't got close enough to miss the tackle. But yes if you want a player that like RCG averages fewer runs, fewer metres, fewer tackle busts, fewer offloads, fewer line breaks, slightly more errors and a lot fewer minutes than James, Prior is your man.
BA Sports
Roar Guru
Oh i hear it, and there are probably similarities between the two. But in my (less esteemed than Brad Fittler) opinion, the similarities they share are not dissimilar to James. I think they are letting their eyes trick them because Prior and RCG are similar in shape and height and they have used that logic to convince themselves that they are very similar and that this is a good reason to pick him. It wasn't like RCG had a memorable Game 1 anyway.
Hoy
Roar Guru
I had Prior as MOM in their grand final. I thought he did the hard yards really well, and kept turning up. The old adage... he won't let anyone down. Congratulations.
Brian Jones
Guest
Totally agree LP. It’s almost a sympathy selection. James is also a bit of a mongrel , and would rattle QLD. At 31 Prior may play his first and last series.
Ray Paks
Roar Rookie
Naah AJ, it's still a tremendously strong team. They'll do the job! I think there'll be more football played and that will only suit the NSW backline. Freddy how he handled James in game 1 and this game leaves one wanting. James was in the team in game 1, then he decides to put Klemmer in at the last minute but where was Prior in all of that ? Makes me think back to the time Sutton almost made his debut under Laurie in 2013, missed out and hasn't played Origin since, probably will never. I'd hate to think Sims and or James are headed that way..
Marty
Guest
Don't discount Prior's worth in attack. Quick play the balls, handy offload, etc.
AJ Mithen
Expert
Don't tell me you're losing faith Ray!!
AJ Mithen
Expert
"I've been fans of both of those players for a long time and it was just one of those decisions you had to make and I wanted to get it away earlier rather than later. "The similarities between Matt and Reagan Campbell-Gillard tipped us that way ... and we don't have to change as much." -Brad Fittler, 19 June 2018
Ray Paks
Roar Rookie
So Freddy's gone with a defensive forward, I thought it was Qld that needed to STOP NSW ? Ryan James should be there and why does Freddy have to bring in another player (Prior) when he already had SIMS and RYAN who missed out in game 1. I just think he should try to avoid these sorts of situations where there's 1 spot vacant and there's 3 players vying for it, just leaves you feeling for the 2 that miss out. Freddy's gone full circle on Sims and Ryan..
Lachlan Pudney
Guest
Prior is also part of one of the best defensive units in the competition whereas the Titans are second worst in that category. Prior is better no doubt but certainly not as much as the numbers suggest. James also does a lot more defensive work than Prior, he makes 50% more tackles per match and still has very similar numbers with ball in hand except he scores more tries than any other prop in the game. He's scored more than 20 tries over the last 3 seasons.
Nat
Roar Guru
Break a leg Matty. Preferably Tede's.
AJ Mithen
Expert
Then sending him an invoice for the NSWRL gear afterwards!
Marty
Guest
I feel so sorry for Ryan James, but when he finally gets his Blues jersey, there will be no more deserving or grateful player.
AJ
Roar Rookie
What's the plan for Game 3? Bring James into the team but really stick it in, name him on the bench and have him ride the pine for the entire game.
Greg
Guest
Prior is arguably the best defensive prop in the game with a tackle efficiency of 93%. Over the past month he's made 123 tackles and missed only two (1.6% miss rate). James has a 7.6% missed tackle rate over the past month.