That whole ten-teams-into-eight thing I’ve been spruiking for the last little bit? It might be time to toss it out and start again.
Plenty of finals-bound and finals-contending teams had an opportunity to improve their position this weekend. Very few of them did.
In chronological order: Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide all could’ve made a better fist of circumstances in front of them.
As it turns out, wins to Adelaide and Essendon have been like managing to get your other hand on to the edge of a cliff.
The Crows and Dons are still in precarious positions, and certainly wouldn’t want to slip up as many of those teams above them did over the weekend.
Both now find themselves a game outside of the eight, with a percentage gap that is still likely to be too large to overcome.
However, what loomed as a near-impossible task seven days ago has crystallised into the possible. Both teams have been within a game of eighth spot over the past month, but haven’t simultaneously looked capable of playing quality football.
Not so after this weekend: a last-gasp run at an improbable finals campaign looks live.
That’s because nobody inside the previously-locked-in top ten seems to want the eighth seed. Faced with the possibility of ending the round locked into the eight after Geelong’s loss to the Crows, both Hawthorn and North Melbourne couldn’t get their respective jobs done.
Similarly, Port Adelaide had a shot at moving into the top two, and Collingwood staying there, with wins against Fremantle and West Coast respectively. None of it materialised.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Hence, most spots in the eight changed around this week. Richmond stayed on top but lost its one game buffer over second place (and two game buffer over fifth).
West Coast swapped spots with the Pies. Sydney swapped spots with Port Adelaide. Melbourne stayed steady but continued to build an imposing percentage.
Geelong slipped from seventh to eighth, the Giants rose from tenth to seventh, North stood pat, and the Hawks are suddenly at the tail of the peloton.
Keeping up? It was a whirlwind, all driven by the inability of a handful of teams to win when they could have, or should have. Which one is going to hurt the most come Round 23?
It could be Collingwood and its loss to West Coast. The Pies rode a cushy draw to second spot, but never really looked like the second-best team in the competition.
Still, the lesson of the league over the past two seasons has been to take your chance and Collingwood has been doing just that.
A win this week would have opened up a one-game gap on third place, with some tricky games to come mixed in with some easier assignments.
While we’re here, I cannot overstate how upsetting, and influential, Nic Naitanui’s likely second (and alternate leg because apparently the Footy Gods are ok with doing this to their players now) ACL injury in the space of 24 months is.
It’s a terrible cliché but West Coast most certainly walk taller when their number one ruckman is lurking at stoppages and through the middle in general play.
The prospect of another 12 moths without him, and the flow on effect this will have for the team’s list management strategy, is daunting. We hope for the best and plan for the worst.
It could be Geelong, who caught Adelaide at what must have been one of its strongest moments of the year on Thursday night.
Rory Sloane, the One Who Stayed as he may come to be known, gave the club an enormous fillip by his re-signing during the week, and you could see it in Adelaide’s play.
Its aggressive streak was back, and it was in no mood to heel to Geelong’s bullyball ways. The Cats actually have an OK record at the Adelaide Oval… against Port Adelaide.
The loss puts it a clear two games behind fourth spot, with a Saturday night date with Melbourne likely to decide whether a double chance is beyond the Cats in 2018.
Fortunately the game will be at its home ground, as four of its last six games will be (the other two at the MCG). We’re still waiting for Geelong to fully click into gear, time is running out.
It could be North Melbourne, who were one minute of Lance Franklin away from jumping back into the eight for the first time since Round 14.
Injuries are beginning to bite, and so the club is turning to its depth – which as we discussed a month or so ago is still not quite all there.
Suddenly the next fortnight – Collingwood at the MCG and West Coast in Hobart – has become crucial to its season.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
It could be Port Adelaide, who handled the blustery conditions in Perth about as well as the paper plates at my South Perth riverside BBQ (which ended early, just before the game got underway).
The Power will have surely pencilled in the four points in its run home, against a Fyfe-and-Sandilands-less Fremantle with nought to play for. Port Adelaide’s path to a top two spot got a little more treacherous.
In reality, it has to be Hawthorn. Faced with the least daunting run home of any team in finals contention, there was some (silly) talk the Hawks could work their way to a top-four spot and challenge for the flag a couple of days ago.
Instead, a rampant Brisbane drove a stake into the heart of Hawthorn’s finals ambitions while simultaneously exposing the Hawks’ great weakness: lack of leg speed through the middle.
Brisbane’s 16 scoring shots to Hawthorn’s seven in the second half – including 4.2 to 0.1 in the last quarter – is no joke, particularly in Tasmania.
The Hawks were simply run off their feet, unable to keep up with the pressing Lions and their whip-fast ball movement on turnovers.
Brisbane is already proving to be a handful for plenty of teams in the second half of the year, and they’ve ample opportunity to shape the season as we reach its end. My Lions optimism grows by the week.
The Hawks may have been planning an assault on the top four, and if a couple of results had gone its way next weekend a decent win against Brisbane followed up by a more substantial one against Carlton may have got them there.
Now, Round 18 becomes an opportunity to just get back into the eight before a potentially tricky fortnight of Fremantle away and Essendon at the ‘G.
They’ll rue this week’s loss, perhaps a little more than some others may come to rue their poor patch in Round 17.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Matti, did I just read McGovern is still unsigned?
DingoGray
Roar Guru
I have to admit like Mick I had serious doubts about Darcy Gardiner ability. I thought he was going to be an average player. His development has been remarkable this year. Still think we are a couple of way to be finals contenders. I still don’t think we’ve got that run and carry half back flanker that you see in other teams. We also still have guys like Lester and Nick Robertson getting games every week. For me they are the Clubs true indicators. They they start being in the 23-26 range is when we are truely developed. Agree on McStay ability, just consistency has to improve! Let’s the hope the last month Josh Walker is here to stay.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
Vardy had 66 hitouts on the weekend, 16 disposals and a goal. Sheed had 37 possessions,7 I50s and a goal,Ryan had 7 tackles and 3 goals, Petrucelle kicked 3 goals.Unfortunately it was against Swan Districts. Fox Footy had the Royals with the bye! That's just dumb I think the Eagles will be fine in the ruck department, they'll probably be a bit more conventional from now on. Richmond had the biggest slip-up for mine ,but they were beaten by a better side,no shame in that
RT
Roar Rookie
Because to describe it as an epic fail is a stupid comment.
Raimond
Roar Guru
You blokes can't admit that you botched one match. Weird stuff.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Not really, we didn't kick as straight as them and should've been more like a 4 goal win to them.
Cat
Roar Guru
A Six goal beating against a side that was below you on the ladder at your home ground is a pantsing.
Confused
Guest
Certainly wasn't a pant dropping result. Quoting meaningless stats of ancient history isn't smart analysis. Do you realise that the Eagles vs Pies have only played 5 times at the MCG in the last 10 years. Of which only 2 games the Eagles were higher on the ladder.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Cool story, bro.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
As I stated it was 2 versus 3 Cat, hardly a slip up game. Quoting number of years of wins at the G is absolutely irrelevant. Think it helps the Pies to think that as they run out? WCE are a very good side who had some key injuries, lost while these players were out and won as soon as they were back. As for the slide, you've been saying that all year and been wrong all year so just more hot air in that comment.
Cat
Roar Guru
Getting pantsed by a side that hasn't beaten you at the MCG for what was it 23 years straight? And is known for being soft at the MCG is most certainly 'a slip up', a very large one. Then again Pies aren't actually as good as their ladder position. Cup cake draw is over, watch the slide.
Thatsashame
Guest
I tipped west coast and gws. Richmond aren't a great side, just in melbourne. West coast with a near full team are a very good team and was very confident they would win. As for the hawks...everyone needs to realise they are an average team. An average team that will drop further and further down the ladder over the next 5 years. Too old and most definitely too slow. Brisbane rang rings around them. Regardless of their soft run home, they still won't make finals. Teams will run over them. Watch the bombers belt them in a few weeks.
Mick_Lions
Roar Pro
Last year I had written Gardiner off completely but he's now having a career defining year. McStay is a great contested mark and has finally sought some kicking coaching and its paying dividends. Cutler is also having a career best year and his run off half back and through the middle is top shelf. Fagan has inspired improvement from many players. Luey Taylor has improved, Josh Walker's last 3 games have been above his pay grade and most of all, Daniel Rich has turned into an A grader that breaks tackles and makes them stick. With the top shelf kids showing they're all going to be stars the future is bright in Brisbane
13th Man
Guest
Fagan has done an excellent job and in my opinion is showing Bolton, Lyon, Richardson etc the way to rebuild. Close to Coach of the year for mine. Results starting to reflect how well he has done. Brisbane are amazingly one of the best sides outside the Top 8 right now!
13th Man
Guest
Yeah in all likliehood he'll give Pearce, Ballantyne, Johnson and Sutcliffe a send off game and you'll coast home. If he plays the young kids like he did v Port yesterday it won't be as easy for the Pies!
Lroy
Guest
Losing Nicnat is a huge blow, but.... Eagles still won the game without him, …they have still managed to construct wins against good sides like GWS... Essentially they have had 2 bad quarters in the last month, the first against the Bombers, the last against the Crows.. but for that they would have won 4 in a row since the bye!! Lets remember, they were missing their big three (Kennedy, Darling, Lecras for an entire month, without them Waterman went of the boil a bit, but with them back in hes back to his old self. Watermans contribution should not be overlooked this year, he has been the perfect foil for Darling and Kennedy, hes created space, kicked the odd goal, given a good contest, he really has done his bit so far. Ditto Rioli who has really impressed me with some of his one percenters, diving on the pill just to knock it forward to advantage etc, ... he has done all the unheralded stuff all year and did it again on the weekend but this time got some reward on the scoreboard as well. The other guy they have missed is Venebles, some of his work is magic!! Hes like Shuey except a bit taller. Seriously, 2 Luke Shueys in your midfield? Gotta be happy with that. They just beat the second ranked side in the comp Collingwood at the ''G'', if it was round one people would have said it was a fluke, but it was round 17, so that argument wont fly. Vardy will come back in and he has shown to be a handy second string ruck man, frankly his work around the ground is sorely underrated, every time he has played hes done well. Lycett is in the top stanza of ruckmen in his own right... so we don't have the ''Dynamic Duo'' anymore, but a ''Decent Duo'' might be enough. I wouldn't be writing the Eagles off just yet. They have a tricky game coming up against North in a couple of weeks, but if they do win that one, they might find themselves in the drivers seat for a top 2 spot, essentially, they will be in control of their own destiny. My only gripe is with the coach, come on champ, get Dom Sheed back in the side, seriously, that guy is too good to be playing in the WAFL... and you have to stick with the ''Hutch''... hes like a beaten up rusty old Toyota 4wd, but when things are tough on those outback roads, take it from me, you want to be in a Toyota. Starsky and Hutch iconic TV show from the 70's..''Sheed and Hutch''... its what we'll need from here on in.
Raimond
Roar Guru
At least someone in the football media can admit the Tigers blew it on the weekend. Epic choke.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Moore was one of the few positives from our game against the Eagles. Reminded me of a young Peter Knights a fellow most of you young guys don't even know. You do make a fair point Aransan but I counter with the point that key backs are a dime a dozen, you can pick them up in any bargain basement bin at the end of the season so take them when you need them. You won't get a Mcgovern in those bins but you can get a stopper. We are training one up in the two's called Mclarty.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Anything's possible. Of course we don't want to slip to 3rd, that's a no brainer. According to most here it's our only chance of repeating last years result. I don't subscribe to that theory though. Sydney in Sydney is nothing to fear. Even WC without NickyNackyNoo, I'd think we'd be a chance. He gave his mids an armchair ride first time round and in the past 18 months we've tended to learn from defeats and beat those teams second time round. There WILL be more upsets! Should be a fun and exciting finish to the h&a season.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
Peter, Collingwood have elite and A grade players but your key position players are not among them. Dunn is 31 (196 games), Goldsack 31 (161), Reid 29 (142). I am not sure these players are much of an advance on McKernan, Brown and Stewart. Essendon have all Australian key position players in Hooker, Hurley and Daniher. Your recruiting focus has been on midfielders. With patience Moore could develop into a top player. I am not trying to pot shot the Pies, I leave my barracking for match day.