Greater Western Sydney might be one of the best three teams in the competition, but have they left their run too late?
The Giants are a good football team. They played in preliminary finals in both 2016 and 2017, losing to the eventual premiers both times.
Not only that, they got the closest to the Western Bulldogs and Richmond in each finals series, playing the best footy either of those premiers faced in September.
In a nutshell, they were possibly the second-best team in each of those Septembers.
Looking back to the ladder after Round 4 this year, GWS sat on top, with three wins and a percentage of 139.8. Sitting in second and third back then were the ladder leaders now – West Coast and Richmond.
The Giants had crushed the Dogs and Fremantle at home, and beaten Collingwood at the MCG (a result that can be held in higher regard now than it seemed at the time). Their only loss at the time was to Sydney, in a game where they had more inside 50s and more scoring shots. It looked like they were on their way again.
Then, the wheels fell off the Ferrari.
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Looking only at Rounds 5-10, GWS had one win, one draw, four losses, and a percentage of 74. Their average score was 62 points. They played only one top-seven team in that run.
It’s a six-week period that may cost them a meaningful shot at this year’s flag.
Since then, the Giants have played six matches for five wins and a loss, with a percentage of 135. They’re only failure was to West Coast in Perth, a game they were the better side for three-and-a-bit quarters, and again had more scoring shots and more inside 50s.
Statistically, they’re about an eight-goal better side now than they were during the flat patch. They’re back to their 2016-17 best, which is pointy-end-of-September good.
Richmond and West Coast are now seen as the best two teams in the competition – GWS has played them both in the last fortnight, and could easily have two wins for their troubles. They’re probably in the best three teams in it right now, with those other two.
But can they make finals? If they do, is a top-six spot in their grasp? Can they charge all the way to an unlikely top-four berth?
Toby Greene chats to Callan Ward (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
The Tigers and Eagles look to be tracking for 17 wins each, which should be enough to secure them coveted top two positions and home finals all the way through being in their control.
The Giants are currently on 9.5 wins, and it’s quite possible they’ll need 14.5 in order to make it. That means they need to win five of their last six.
They have two ‘gimmes’, against St Kilda and Carlton, which takes them to 11.5
Their other four games are not going to be easy – they travel to Port this week and Melbourne in the last round, opponents that are both hungrily eyeing off top-four positions. It goes without saying they will be tough propositions.
GWS also have home games against Adelaide and Sydney, where you would give them the edge. The Crows might be out of the finals race by then, and thus ripe for the picking, while the Swans should be far closer to full strength than they are now.
Splitting these four ‘eight point’ games is not an option for GWS to be a threat. They will either miss finals or finish seventh or eighth, and travel all over the country if they want to go deep into September.
The Power were one of the form teams of the competition before dropping an unforgiveable loss to Fremantle last round. They are on the rebound, and GWS simply must take them down or it will become all too hard.
The Giants have turned their season around, that much is clear. They have the talent, history and form to suggest they are one of the best teams in the league.
Unfortunately for them, 2018 looks destined to go down as a wasted season.
pdiddie
Guest
Sydney best team? You might have to discount your qualifying final performance where you lost to the Giants by 6 goals. As for umpire integrity, I do agree it seems they react to context as opposed to just calling what they see. It interferes with a genuine battle every time. A few weeks ago late in the GWS/WCE game, a holding the ball decision was made in front of goal that was way too hot, resulting in a Giants goal. My feeling right then was that there was no way we were going to win the game. Lo and behold umpires went straight into 'patch-up' mode and gifted the Eagles everything. That is no longer umpiring, but it curiously happens every week. Anyway...
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
Care to lay down your 'proof' Dalgety? Would you include disgusting training facilities,transfer denials,WA players poached before and during their first and second seasons,travel disasters,schedule horrors or anything else?
Dylan
Guest
GWS season a waste? More like you don't want them to be there at the end to flog off nearly teams. Apart from Richmond all other teams are stumbling, to state you need this many games to get in the top 8 is on the back of everything else being equal which is far from the case in any league. Interesting to see the hatred of the GWS by many AFL supporters. It was much like how Melbourne Storm is viewed in the NRL, difference is there is only one NRL team in Melbourne and GWS are up against a established Swans side with a lot of fan support. Small crowds at GWS is on the back of not being able to win a final, give them a final and consistent prelims finals you will see GWS grow. GWS are the Melbourne Storm of AFL you need massive backing and access to the best players for the team and code to survive in hostile territory, it is not a hidden FACt Storm get propped up by the NRL and so does GWS for AFL because you need that to happen for the game to grow and become larger and bigger than it is in the regional area. If AFL supporters mostly Melbournites only want there game in Victoria, SA and WA then so be it, but the fact is you need the game to grow and GWS are doing that slowly but surely in a area heavily influenced by NRL and A-league.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
The thing with introducing multiple rule changes at one time is that it becomes very difficult to tell which one is effective and which one isn't. You may also have one cancelling the other out, so it's all a muddle.
IAP
Guest
I've watched it a dozen times. The umpiring was fine. The Dogs players were first to the ball, they were rewarded, that's how footy should be umpired. Swans supporters just have their blinkers on. Case in point - the infamous Hannebery free kick. It wasn't a free kick, for two reasons; 1. Easton Wood didn't dive, he jumped, 2. He hit him above the knee! The only reason some think it was a free kick is because Hannebery hut his knee. If that didn't happen they wouldn't have noticed it. The Swans supporters also conveniently overlook the free kicks for the Dogs that were missed. The Dogs were harder and wanted it more; the fact of the matter is that they were on top all day, other than a 10 minute period in the second quarter when Josh Kennedy kicked a couple. They were deserved winners.
Cat
Roar Guru
It’s not relavent because every club would have made the same Carlton did. You ar also ignoring the fact the fact that had Kennedy been retained maybe he doesn’t develop into the player he has.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Pfft, what stares you in the face when looking at using fatigue as the mechanism to improve the aesthetic of the game is a huge lack of logic.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
WC had in effect the most generous starting concessions of any new team.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Probably. After all, you're still talking about Gumbleton. By the way, don't ever think he was bad. He was excellent, just nobbled by injury.
Aflfiend
Guest
Absolutely they can. If the dogs and tigers are anything to go off. Once Cameron is back and Greene is firing.. they could easily come through and win. Their midfield speaks for itself and they have one of the best interceptors in Hayne and Phil Davis & Shaw organising defence. My main question has been around their intent and pressure. If they can bring a finals like intensity and some heat, they’ll be hard to stop.
Footymongrel
Guest
Bad goal kicking is bad footy! GWS has some absolutely class and is a more skilful side than the tigers.
Howie
Roar Pro
Eagles were helped to start off as the WA team. But nothing like GWS and they were profitable pretty quickly. They really are the footy money machine and without the despicable practice of using pokies. When will GWS make profit without AFL cash? Never?
Howie
Roar Pro
Nah, I bet and cheered the Doggies wins after they beat the Eagles in Perth and made a packet. But after watching the reply of the Swans Doggies game the following Tuesday I was struck by the fact that the Dogs got every 20 80 decision never mind the 50 50s. It was pretty bad. You should watch a replay.
Howie
Roar Pro
Judd made major $s off Visy outside the cap and probably after his football career was over. So it wasn't all bad for him.
Aligee
Roar Rookie
Kevin Norton; Professor of Exercise Science at the University of South Australia https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=191863 Radio interview about interchange numbers.
Samuel Ord
Roar Guru
I've loved watch the evolution of this opinion from Sydney fans that they deserved the 2016 premiership. At first there was radio silence for a while, embarrassment from the loss. Then a few voices started to pop up on social media saying 'we were robbed by the umpires' and they were dismissed because that's just bitterness. Over the 18 months those voices have grown stronger and stronger and it looks like folks are getting tired of dismissing it because now I'm seeing comments like this, more and more ''...many think the Swans were the best team of 2016. Umpires assisted the Bulldogs to make the 8 and then go all the way in that Grand Final.' The only people who think that way are Sydney supporters and a handful of other onlookers who got tired of the praise the Bulldogs are receiving. The umpiring wasn't that bad and it should never stop you from winning the flag. Richmond are 18th in free kicks against in both 2017 and 2018 and in a strong position to go back-to-back. John Longmire said it best, Sydney had too few contributors in that grand final and a number of Bulldogs played out of their skins. Let's not change history and try to deprive the Bulldogs of their only flag in 60+ years.
EddiefromElwood
Guest
Yet Richmond had more scoring shots than they did and if they had have converted half of the ones they missed would have won by about 3-4 goals.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
3 weeks would have been appropriate for Tex Walker, too.
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
You stated GWS were the better side for three and a bit quarters. GWS were in front on the scoreboard for about 11 mins and 33 secs during those three and a bit quarters And were 24 points behind at one stage in the third quarter. You also stated "and again had more scoring shots and inside 50s" They had 4 more scoring shots, which is 1 extra shot per quarter And 3 more inside 50s. Don't think those stats support your argument that GWS were the better side for 3 and a bit quarters. In fact it shows they struggled against a side with more than 50% of its goal kicking power missing through injury.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Of course hindsight makes it easy Cat, doesn't mean they blew a chance to have JK as their pillar for 15 years. The Pies blew their own chance end of 1994 when Tony Lockett was ready to join the Pies instead of the Swans and the Collingwood board voted against it. It is relevant for the Blues at the moment because their choices in letting so many good players go has contributed to their position in 2018.