Throughout this season, it has become apparent that Melbourne’s best is good enough to win it all.
However, it has become even clearer that they are incapable of defeating high-class opposition. Against the other top eight teams and ninth-placed Geelong, they have not won a single game in 2018. All of their 12 victories have come against lower-ranked sides.
They have become flat-track bullies. In fact, their form bears some resemblance to Port Adelaide’s last year. The only difference is that the Power were never going to drop out of the eight. And with West Coast in Perth and GWS looming large on their fixture list, things could get real ugly for the Demons.
Even if they do make the eight, it is becoming very hard to see them making it past the first week. Port Adelaide were a better team last year than Melbourne are now, and they also got knocked out in the first week.
You could say that injuries haven’t helped them. They missed Michael Hibberd and Jack Viney against the Swans, and Jake Lever has been out for most of the season as well. But when you compare their run with injury to the Giants and Magpies, it’s clear their casualty list isn’t an excuse, given how well those two teams have done this year.
If you are unable to beat the top teams, you do not deserve to play finals, and unfortunately, the Demons are not yet ready.
(Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Media/Getty Images)
The team that beat the Demons this weekend was the ever-consistent Swans. After a scrappy first quarter, they put Melbourne to the sword and never really let up. It was a game where, for the first time in a long time, they looked like a genuine contender and a potential top-four side. Considering where they were at two weeks ago, this is a significant achievement.
But like Melbourne, their run home is extremely tough, having to play GWS and Hawthorn, who are placed third and fourth respectively. If Sydney lose to both, they risk dropping out of the eight and would need to rely on Port Adelaide or Melbourne doing the same thing to sneak in.
However, Sydney should be good enough to avoid that situation. Of all the teams above them, only Richmond have beaten them. They also happen to be the last club to have beaten the Tiges at their beloved MCG. So, despite their dramatic form slump mid-season, a spot in the top eight beckons.
While Richmond are the only team above the Swans to have beaten John Longmire’s men, there’s one other side in the eight to have beaten them this year: the Power. While their fans are still probably spewing after that deja vu on Saturday night, not all hope is lost for Port. In fact, they look like they are in a better position than Sydney at the moment.
For one thing, their run home is slightly easier. While Collingwood at the MCG will be tough to overcome, the game against Essendon is slightly more promising. But the Bombers are still a force to be reckoned with, and are in good nick.
However, what may hinder Port is their injuries. Arguably their two most important players in Charlie Dixon and Paddy Ryder have been hobbled, Dixon for the rest of the year. Add Dan Houston to that list, which also contains Hamish Hartlett and Matthew Broadbent, and you realise how vulnerable Port Adelaide have become.
Just like Melbourne and Sydney, they can ill afford to lose both games. If they are able to win at least one more, they’ll book a place in the finals. If anyone deserves their spot in the eight, it is the Power.
(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Finally, to Geelong. This team is all but assured a finals berth, as they have Fremantle and Gold Coast at home to close out their season. Their close loss to the Hawks should not matter too much; anything less than a top eight position based off that run home will be considered a failure.
Wins against the Dockers and Suns will allow the Cats to round out the eight behind Sydney and Port Adelaide, who should both have the capacity to win one of their final two matches. The Demons, once again, will be the unlucky ones to miss out.
My predicted top eight
1. Richmond
2. West Coast
3. GWS
4. Collingwood
5. Hawthorn
6. Sydney
7. Geelong
8. Port Adelaide
User
Roar Rookie
Won't happen pts, won't lie he would be great to have while NIC is out and if Lycett left but would be equivalent of Adam Gilchrist opening for England in the ashes Sandi has the opportunity to set up a great post footy career as a Freo legend, it would be foolish to waste that on a one year deal at wce
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Don, thoughts on WCE poaching Sandilands? https://www.zerohanger.com/reports-major-rival-set-to-launch-shock-bid-at-sandilands-22820/
User
Roar Rookie
If Sonny is in with Fyfe makes it a bit more interesting, also your boys needing only one more win to better last year is huge motivation over next two rounds.
User
Roar Rookie
Light hearted lol, your in no the victor so history is not yours to write. No last week I told you why Hamish will not line up gaff. I did not weaponise his fathers pov, I casually pointed out the parralell between me saying Hamish will not act in your manner because his family will provide direction and good counsel, if you think that didn't happen well done. Let's play possible scenarios (you love a good maybe so here we go), Angus lays a bone jarring tackle on say Liam Ryan, you know the sort usually a team mate will run past and shoulder him and sledge, maybe the sledge will be along the lines of we respect your brother so our retaliation is lessened. In turn Angus output may lessen I'm not saying that would be right, but I'm accepting it happens every week in the AFL. Involving Nisbett in your arguments is non sensical, nor is the Masten incident (only way you can bite fingers is when over your mouth) Target on your back means many things in competitive sports especially when a finals spot or top 2 is on the line and it's best advised never to give the opposition ammunition. Etcetera, etcetera etcetera...... ( If you've seen Yul bryner in the king and I you will understand the closing?)
Downsey
Roar Pro
Sonny is still in with a chance based on latest injury update.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Yes, all you wrote there made just the perfect sense. Especially the "tried and know clasp at straws" and "post...acting" bits. Somehow me thinks you is hiding behind the non-sensical. Just to help you join the dots I'll run through a few things for ya. Last week you tried to use a relatively light-hearted comment I made about someone lining up a teammate who broke his brother's jaw at training as some sort of evidence of inflammatory rhetoric. Yet here you are talking about the WC lining up Angus Brayshaw for speaking candidly about his brother's broken jaw. A parallel conversation is one where the two strands of it never meet. Not unlike a politician giving the safe answer he wants to give rather than answer the question he was asked. I'm guessing Brayshaw may have to keep away from Masten's biting mouth targeting him while watching out for Nissy playing fast and loose with the truth with his spin job in the aftermath. And then to top it all off have you attempting to weaponise his dad's act of forgiveness and compassion for your recriminations.
Don Freo
Guest
Elimination Final: 5th (Collingwood) v 13th (Freo). ...and the journos criticize the AFL for making it up as they go along.
User
Roar Rookie
Hope you had a nice dinner. With all that cut n paste you're becoming freos version of anon. If you didn't direct quote me for the majority of that it would've been a fourpeat of non sensical posts ?
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Sorry I just couldn't let this go by: "You tried and know clasp at straws. 3rd post in a row acting non sensical. I have come to expect you to respond this way but the way you go all Mr biggy words has and always will be the hilight." Non-sensical eh? :D
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
It's a probability, but Freo has bucked expectations many a time against the Cats. Even down at Sleepy Hollow.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Freo might still sneak in then Don?
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Yeah man, I was thinking that as well. Would be good to get at least one more win to better last year’s win/loss record.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Matera won't get a game. Ballantyne and Switkowski were outstanding. Banfield and Hamling should return.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
So, people have got Geelong (Scott's fault), North (Scott's fault), Port, Adelaide and now Melbourne all missing the finals after last weekend. Hmmm. With that kind of soothsaying, maybe it's best to wait until one more round is played. Maybe Essendon isn't as safe as the pundits all think. Why not write them off too?
User
Roar Rookie
Because Jon boy you do not give opposition sides any ammunition, target on his back can mean anything from sledging to more physical acts, sorry this is outside the realms of the squeaky clean amongst us but since time immemorial it has happened.
Jon Boy
Guest
matti6x6 Why has Angus Brayshaw '' inadvertently put a target on himself '' ? Just for telling the truth.?
Neil from Warrandyte
Roar Rookie
‘we will win if we play you week 1 in the QF’ would have me believe that you think the tigers are no chance- hence they’re underdogs. So you’d think that the odds are stacked against us making it an epic win if we manage to beat you or whoever we come up against in week 1. You seem absolutely convinced that we’ll either bow out in straight sets or get beaten in Perth in a preliminary final. You’d have to believe we’re really something special to go all the way to another grand final based on your predictions.
asd
Guest
Norm Smith curse
RT
Roar Rookie
No.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
To be fair Spruce they have only played 5 and yes sit 0-5. But who is to say they played ten wouldnt be like 4-6?