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Throughout this season, it has become apparent that Melbourne’s best is good enough to win it all.
However, it has become even clearer that they are incapable of defeating high-class opposition. Against the other top eight teams and ninth-placed Geelong, they have not won a single game in 2018. All of their 12 victories have come against lower-ranked sides.
They have become flat-track bullies. In fact, their form bears some resemblance to Port Adelaide’s last year. The only difference is that the Power were never going to drop out of the eight. And with West Coast in Perth and GWS looming large on their fixture list, things could get real ugly for the Demons.
Even if they do make the eight, it is becoming very hard to see them making it past the first week. Port Adelaide were a better team last year than Melbourne are now, and they also got knocked out in the first week.
You could say that injuries haven’t helped them. They missed Michael Hibberd and Jack Viney against the Swans, and Jake Lever has been out for most of the season as well. But when you compare their run with injury to the Giants and Magpies, it’s clear their casualty list isn’t an excuse, given how well those two teams have done this year.
If you are unable to beat the top teams, you do not deserve to play finals, and unfortunately, the Demons are not yet ready.
(Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Media/Getty Images)
The team that beat the Demons this weekend was the ever-consistent Swans. After a scrappy first quarter, they put Melbourne to the sword and never really let up. It was a game where, for the first time in a long time, they looked like a genuine contender and a potential top-four side. Considering where they were at two weeks ago, this is a significant achievement.
But like Melbourne, their run home is extremely tough, having to play GWS and Hawthorn, who are placed third and fourth respectively. If Sydney lose to both, they risk dropping out of the eight and would need to rely on Port Adelaide or Melbourne doing the same thing to sneak in.
However, Sydney should be good enough to avoid that situation. Of all the teams above them, only Richmond have beaten them. They also happen to be the last club to have beaten the Tiges at their beloved MCG. So, despite their dramatic form slump mid-season, a spot in the top eight beckons.
While Richmond are the only team above the Swans to have beaten John Longmire’s men, there’s one other side in the eight to have beaten them this year: the Power. While their fans are still probably spewing after that deja vu on Saturday night, not all hope is lost for Port. In fact, they look like they are in a better position than Sydney at the moment.
For one thing, their run home is slightly easier. While Collingwood at the MCG will be tough to overcome, the game against Essendon is slightly more promising. But the Bombers are still a force to be reckoned with, and are in good nick.
However, what may hinder Port is their injuries. Arguably their two most important players in Charlie Dixon and Paddy Ryder have been hobbled, Dixon for the rest of the year. Add Dan Houston to that list, which also contains Hamish Hartlett and Matthew Broadbent, and you realise how vulnerable Port Adelaide have become.
Just like Melbourne and Sydney, they can ill afford to lose both games. If they are able to win at least one more, they’ll book a place in the finals. If anyone deserves their spot in the eight, it is the Power.
(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Finally, to Geelong. This team is all but assured a finals berth, as they have Fremantle and Gold Coast at home to close out their season. Their close loss to the Hawks should not matter too much; anything less than a top eight position based off that run home will be considered a failure.
Wins against the Dockers and Suns will allow the Cats to round out the eight behind Sydney and Port Adelaide, who should both have the capacity to win one of their final two matches. The Demons, once again, will be the unlucky ones to miss out.
My predicted top eight
1. Richmond
2. West Coast
3. GWS
4. Collingwood
5. Hawthorn
6. Sydney
7. Geelong
8. Port Adelaide
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