Wondering how far your AFL team can rise or fall in the final week of the season? I’ve done the (sometimes extremely improbable) maths so you don’t have to.
1. Richmond Tigers
vs Western Bulldogs at MCG, 68 points, 138.3 per cent
Two wins ahead of the pack, Richmond have nothing to lose or gain this week other than doing whatever they can to aid Jack Riewoldt’s chances of winning the Coleman Medal.
Predicted final: First qualifying final vs Hawthorn Hawks at MCG
2. West Coast Eagles
vs Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, 60 points, 120.8 per cent
The equation is fairly simple for the Eagles – win and they will lock in second place and a home qualifying final.
Lose and they will almost certainly drop to the lower half of the top four. The only way they could avoid that is if Collingwood and Hawthorn also lose.
Predicted final: Second qualifying final vs Collingwood Magpies at Optus Stadium
3. Collingwood Magpies
vs Fremantle Dockers at Optus Stadium, 56 points, 120.7 per cent
The Pies have the chance to lock in a top-four spot with a win over Fremantle, but just how high they could rise – or fall – will depend on other results.
If West Coast slip up against Brisbane they’ll be in the box seat to sneak into the top two. However, even with a win they could easily drop to fourth if Hawthorn also win, and by a bigger margin than them.
Of course, finishing in fourth is arguably preferable to third, as it would mean an MCG qualifying final against the Tigers.
Worst case scenario for the Pies is if they lose to Fremantle and Hawthorn beat Sydney – in this case, they’d sink as low as sixth, but would still have a home elimination final.
Predicted final: Second qualifying final vs West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
4. Hawthorn Hawks
vs Sydney Swans at SCG, 56 points, 120.5 per cent
The Hawks can lock in a top-four berth if they beat the Swans, and could rise as high as second if West Coast lose to Brisbane and Collingwood either lose to Fremantle or win by a smaller margin than Hawthorn do.
Lose and they will likely finish sixth, as they’ll be overtaken by the Swans and whoever wins out of the Giants and Demons. They can’t fall any lower than that and would still host a home elimination final.
Predicted final: First qualifying final vs Richmond Tigers at MCG
(AAP Image/Joe Castro)
5. Sydney Swans
vs Hawthorn Hawks at SCG, 56 points, 110.6 per cent
Sydney’s equation is essentially the same as that of Hawthorn, except they probably don’t have a realistic chance at a top-two spot due to their low percentage.
They’d probably have to beat the Hawks by at least 100 points and also have West Coast lose to Brisbane and Collingwood either lose to Fremantle or only win by a very slight margin – unlikely.
More realistic is that a win over the Hawks would see them finish in fourth and play the Tigers in a qualifying final.
Lose and they’ll probably finish sixth, overtaken by whoever wins the match between Melbourne and GWS, but still play a home elimination final.
Predicted final: Second elimination final vs Melbourne Demons at SCG
6. GWS Giants
vs Melbourne Demons at MCG, 54 points, 118.1 per cent
Unfortunately for the Giants, losing to Sydney in Round 22 has probably cost them any hope they had of sneaking into the top four.
For a top-four finish to be on the cards, the Giants would be hoping either for Collingwood to lose to Fremantle, or Hawthorn and Sydney to draw.
If either of those scenarios presents itself, then odds are a win would see the Giants sneak into fourth and play a qualifying final against Richmond at the MCG.
More likely is that a win in the final round would lock in fifth position and give them a home elimination final at Spotless Stadium, probably against Geelong.
Predicted final: First elimination final vs Geelong Cats at Spotless Stadium
7. Melbourne Demons
vs GWS Giants at MCG, 52 points, 129.8 per cent
Although it’s unlikely, Melbourne are still a chance to slide into the top four, thanks to their massive percentage.
All they need is for Collingwood to slip up against Fremantle – if so, then Melbourne only need to beat GWS to rise all the way to third.
If the Pies do get over the Dockers, then a win will most likely see Melbourne rise to fifth position and probably host Geelong in an elimination final at the MCG.
That’d be a cracking fixture given how the matches between those two sides have gone so far this season.
Lose and Melbourne will be the away team in an elimination final, probably travelling to Sydney to face either the Swans or the Giants.
They would finish either seventh or eighth depending on whether Geelong manage to beat Gold Coast by enough to overtake them on percentage.
In a purely mathematical sense, they could still finish ninth if they were to lose to GWS by something in the realm of 400 points while Geelong and Port Adelaide both win.
Predicted final: Second elimination final vs Sydney Swans at SCG
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
8. Geelong Cats
vs Gold Coast Suns at GMHBA Stadium, 48 points, 125.7 per cent
Geelong’s equation is pretty simple – win and they’ll play as the away team in an elimination final, lose and they will have to hope Port Adelaide have also dropped the ball.
Luckily for the Cats, Port’s game is on before theirs – so they’ll know going in whether or not they have to get the win to survive.
If the Dees lose then they could jump up as high as seventh if they win by a hefty margin, or Melbourne loses by one.
They won’t realistically go any lower than ninth if they lose.
Predicted final: First elimination final vs GWS Giants at Spotless Stadium
9. Port Adelaide Power
vs Essendon Bombers at Adelaide Oval, 48 points, 109.6 per cent
Port Adelaide have no choice left but to cross their fingers and hope Geelong shoot themselves in the foot by losing to Gold Coast.
If they do, then Port could sneak into eighth with a win over Essendon on Friday night – of course, they’ll go into that game not knowing yet if it’s possible or not.
Lose to the Dons and the Power could theoretically drop as low as 12th, depending on the margins North Melbourne, Essendon and Adelaide potentially win by.
10. North Melbourne Kangaroos
vs St Kilda Saints at Etihad Stadium, 44 points, 108.1 per cent
North’s finals miracle requires Port Adelaide to lose to Essendon, Geelong to lose to Gold Coast, and then they probably need to beat the Suns by about 270 points.
Piece of cake.
The realistic scenario is that a win would see North finish ninth if Port Adelaide lose, tenth if Port Adelaide win.
They could easily drop as low as 12th if they lose while Essendon and Adelaide both win.
11. Essendon Bombers
vs Port Adelaide Power at Adelaide Oval, 44 points, 104.1 per cent
The Bombers’ finals scenario is essentially the same as North’s, except with an even bigger gap to make up.
They would need Geelong to lose to Gold Coast, and then would likely need to beat Port Adelaide by something in the realm of 320 points.
More likely is that a win sees them finish either ninth or tenth, while a loss would probably see them drop to 12th assuming Adelaide beat Carlton.
12. Adelaide Crows
vs Carlton Blues at Etihad Stadium, 44 points, 98.4 per cent
If North and Essendon’s finals miracle scenarios haven’t been improbable enough for your tastes, well, hold on to your hats.
First, Adelaide need Geelong to lose to Gold Coast, and Port Adelaide to lose to Essendon.
Then they’d be looking to beat Carlton by at least 400 points minimum. Well, I suppose if there’s any team it’s realistic to beat by 400 points…
More realistically they’ll likely get a win over the Blues and finish between 10th and 12th depending on whether North and Essendon get wins in their matches.
(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
13. Western Bulldogs
vs Richmond Tigers at MCG, 32 points, 76.3 per cent
The Dogs are a clear tier below the top 12, so can’t possibly rise any higher than where they currently are regardless of results.
They could theoretically drop behind the Dockers if either a) they lose and the Dockers win, b) both teams lose but the Dogs lose by a bit more, c) both teams win but the Dockers win by a bit more.
14. Fremantle Dockers
vs Collingwood Magpies at Etihad Stadium, 32 points, 75.8 per cent
Fremantle are mostly of interest for the question of whether or not they can help out a bunch of the teams vying for a top-four spot by knocking off Collingwood – probably no.
As discussed regarding the Bulldogs, there’s the potential for these two teams to swap places depending on their respective results, but nothing more volatile than that.
15. Brisbane Lions
vs West Coast Eagles at the Gabba, 20 points, 89.9 per cent
A win or likely even a draw for Brisbane would lock them in for a fifteenth-placed finish.
Lose and they could slip behind St Kilda, if the Saints beat North Melbourne.
They could even mathematically sink below the Suns into 17th, albeit only if they lose, the Saints win, and Gold Coast thump Geelong by around 600 points.
16. St Kilda Saints
vs North Melbourne Kangaroos at Etihad Stadium, 18 points, 75.3 per cent
If Brisbane lose then the Saints could leapfrog them by beating North Melbourne. If the Saints lose, they could slip below Gold Coast if the Suns somehow upset Geelong.
17. Gold Coast Suns
vs Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium, 16 points, 62.2 per cent
Gold Coast’s chances of rising in the final week all depend on the teams above them losing, which is probably likely.
However to move up the ladder they’d need to knock off Geelong, which would be highly appreciated by someone like Port Adelaide, but doesn’t seem super likely.
18. Carlton Blues
vs Adelaide Crows at Etihad Stadium, 8 points, 61 per cent
Falling short against the Bulldogs in Round 22 has officially ended any hope the Blues had of avoiding the wooden spoon – win, lose or draw, they’re finishing last.
User
Roar Rookie
Post the Qld derby, second place on the line, Brisbane only five wins for the year . Yeah they've improved but wins against GCS, Freo, Carlton and Hawks says wce will win.
Aligee
Roar Rookie
I agree with my assessment, Collingwood fans were exhausted from fighting Eddie and his decisions, the Collingwood board is just a Yes Eddie board. I guess it was a bit rich hoping Buckley would fail, but plenty of Collingwood fans felt the same way. Eddie needs to get the girls playing at Vic Park, whatsmore he needs to hold a AGM at the Collingwood town hall. They also need to buy some pubs and then lease them privately out around Vic Park before they all go under the hammer, Carringbush is sold now and will eventually become a O/S students boarding house. He needs to get more Collingwood in Collingwood, thats how you get the passion back.
Raimond
Roar Guru
Richmond winning the Minor Premiership before the season wraps up is why I'm in favour of the pre-finals bye.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Sounds like Kiss of Death tips there. What's your logic behind Fremantle who just lost by 133 beating Collingwood who just beat Port by 51? Not saying it can't happen. Funnier things have, just can't find the logic in it.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
1. Treloar is a jet when fit. How fit can he get before finals though? The reserves playing finals helps his cause. If he can get a run in the two's he may make the second week of the finals. Buckley is all about players are the incumbent of a spot though so if the side is doing really well it will be quite the risk to bring him in. He is training, kicking, running already but it's the last 20% he needs to ramp up and one hamstring doesn't have the strength. TO be honest Chris, he's not great odds to play finals but I hope I'm wrong. 2. Fas has really knocked on the door. What place does he take though after a 51 point win over Port? To be truthful he may need a forward to go down to get his chance. 3. Elliott is as good as signed up on a one year deal for 2019. Reid already has a year and no other club will risk his body by taking him. Dunn might just get a year though he can't play until May-June 2019. Broomhead will get another shot at the Pies. 4. Bucks will back the players he has in the side if they are winning. He will drop those who don't yet make the grade though they may in the future - Daicos, Brown and Crocker are three that aren't quite there yet. The thing with Buckley Chris is he will try things now when required. he has an ace up the sleeve in Maynard who he threw in the middle round 23 2017. Moore might still come back though he is a risk to play. Break down and we lose a rotation.
WCE
Roar Rookie
agree with gameofmarks. I think being the final game of the season and at the Gabba, the Lions will come out with all guns blazing against us. We cant let sides get a run on including Brisbane and play catch up all the time. To get a home final we "must" win this week and I don't give a stuff if its only by a point. Darling should be back so even if we still don't have JK, Nic Nat, Gaff or Schofield the young kids have showed enough promise to be accountable. We are still in the hunt !
The real SC
Roar Rookie
Richmond have claimed the Minor Premiers and will play their home qualifying Final at the MCG. I have played AFL Ladder predictor and here are my tips: Essendon beat Port Adelaide by 5 points. Geelong to win over Gold Coast by 33 points. Tigers to win Bulldogs by 8 points. Fremantle denting Collingwood's Top 4 hopes with a win by 11 points. With Carlton getting the Spoon, Carlton to beat Adelaide by 10 points. Sydney Swans to win over the Hawks by 22 points. Brisbane to beat Eagles by 2 points in a nailbiter. Demons over Giants by 3 points. North beat Saints by 4 points. Finals Week 1 This is how it follows: 1st Qualifying Final: Richmond v Melbourne at MCG (Thursday Night) 1st Elimination Final: Collingwood v Geelong at MCG (Friday Night) 2nd Elimination Final: Hawthorn v GWS Giants at MCG (Saturday Arvo) 2nd Qualifying Final: West Coast v Sydney at Optus Stadium (Saturday Night)
Chris
Guest
Peter, the real issues facing Collingwood's assessment of Nathan Buckley are quite simply:- 1. Do we play Treloar in September? 2. Do we play Fasolo into form for the business end of the season as we have very few players with Finals experience? 3. Do we trade Elliott, Reid, Dunne, Broomhead and the other injury-prone players to set up a dynasty? 4. What crucial decisions will he make or not make when finals matches are up for grabs? These answers once given and their impact on results will determine how good Buckley really is.
Chris
Guest
It's good to give the boys a bit of curry to wind them up and get them going. I haven't been so happy or excited for a long long time. Now, we need Fasolo back in to tear the Tigers apart as he has always done! P.S. Watch out for the Dees...They are dangerous. We could end up with a period of Collingwood-Melbourne domination as in the late fifties and early sixties.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Oh yes, Aligee making predictions....Hmmmm let's see Aligee's track record. Aligee said | April 5th 2018 @ 3:04pm | ! Report Eddie and Buckley have exhausted any fight from Collingwood fans.....I hope Buckley fails – more- and again. .....Both Eddie and Bucks have to go now, Eddie has tied himself to Buckley and he may be about the only football fan that cant see what everyone else can. It appears to me that Eddies achilles heel and one weakness is one Nathan Buckley. Reply
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Mind you Chris you came out with some shocking predictions about the Pies at the start of the year including calling for Buckley to be sacked halfway through a JLT game we ended up winning. Do you recall this comment you made Chris back in March? Oh yes, I'm like an elephant, I never forget. Birdman, Aligee, Macca, Cam, Josh, Pieman, Realist, TrueTiger.....I'm coming for you lot too. Bretto made some bad calls too but he is back in the fold. Chris said | March 5th 2018 @ 12:04pm | ! Report By the midseason bye we’ll be 2-10. Thye excuses will be coming thick and fast. Injuries, back luck, narrow losses etc etc. Please spare us boys. We’ve had enough… Reply
EddiefromElwood
Guest
How did the Eagles go at home on the weekend?
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Naaaah. Just another one-eyed Pies supporter from Abbotsford.
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
Brisbane will be a danger game for WCE...... Just hope the WCE boys are switched on from the get go...... To lose second spot now would be a disaster...... They should have got up yesterday.... To play the whole game without a KPF and badly beaten in the ruck and midfield.... Yet be in front with 5 mins to go..... Just shows the resilience of the WCE this year.... With JK and JD back in the finals, and hopefully second spot........ Look out the rest....
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Not if they lose the QF Aligee. Tigers lose the QF and they most likely end up playing WCE in Perth in the preliminary final.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Have to say Chris, a lot of your predictions have come true. The new Nostradamus of The Roar.
Aligee
Roar Rookie
I was very tempted to have a bet on GWS to reach the GF a couple of weeks ago, reckon i have saved my money. Richmonds to lose, no travel - all home games.
Roger of Sydney
Guest
Great season, Swans to beat Hawks at home although Hawthorn generally have the Swans number, then Swans pretty well placed to beat Tigers in first final, beyond that dont know. I think the Swans were the last team to beat tigers at MCG and on the road the Swans are good. Thought GWS for flag, but too many dead marines now.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Pretty sure Josh is a Roos fan!
Chris
Guest
Mr Elliott Esq. I am pleased to say that I told you so! Your beloved Demons won in Perth and will play finals. Moreover, your abhorrence for the men in black and white has made you an undesirable element on this webpage. Nevertheless, we Maggies hope Nathan Buckley picks Alex Fasolo for the trip to Fremanrtle and rests Jordan De Goey because we want every cannon loaded and ready for the September assault. The siege will take four weeks of patience, passion, skill and determination. Who knows if the spoils will be ours but mark my words we will give it everything we've got, Injuries are of no concern to this squad of players and they are prepared to walk through brick walls for Carringbush!. We are here for the fight and how!