Australia’s new-look Test XI looks set to be confirmed this Saturday when they play a warm-up match against Pakistan A in Dubai.
I expect the Australian selectors to lock in the team for the first Test prior to this tour fixture and then give that XI a chance to play together in this four-day match.
While such warm-ups are sometimes used as shootouts between players competing for Test spots, I believe the recent Australia A tour has already acted as such a proving ground.
With only one tour match prior to the first Test, which starts on October 7, Australia do not have time to tinker with their lineup.
None of their best XI can afford to sit out this practice match, each of them needs it in order to prepare for the first Test.
While Michael Neser would be a better option than Peter Siddle in the UAE, it seems clear the veteran seamer will play against Pakistan – he has not been recalled after so long just to warm the bench.
The same goes for 31-year-old batsman Aaron Finch, who was not picked just so he can watch from the sidelines as 24-year-old Marnus Labuschagne makes his Test debut.
Travis Head will be given a go in Test cricket. (AAP Image/David Mariuz)
This is the team I expect to play both the warm-up match on Saturday and the first Test:
1. Matt Renshaw
2. Usman Khawaja
3. Shaun Marsh
4. Travis Head
5. Aaron Finch
6. Mitch Marsh
7. Tim Paine © (wk)
8. Mitchell Starc
9. Peter Siddle
10. Jon Holland
11. Nathan Lyon
There is still an outside chance, however, that Australia could field three frontline spinners, just like they did in their last Test in Asia, against Bangladesh last year. The odds of that happening have been shortened by the absence of star quicks Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood.
The condition of the Dubai pitch, of course, will have a major impact on the composition of the Australian attack. In the most recent Test played in Dubai, Pakistan fielded three frontline quicks.
In that day-night fixture, spinners took 22 wickets compared to 18 for the quicks.
The last time Australia toured the UAE to play Tests against Pakistan they fielded two specialist spinners and two frontline quicks, with Mitch Marsh providing a third seam option.
The pitches in that series were very flat, offering limited assistance to either quicks or spinners. Australian slow bowlers Lyon and Steve O’Keefe were dominated in that series, combining to take seven wickets at 92.
The only Australian bowler who proved a consistent threat against Pakistan was express quick Mitch Johnson, who took six wickets at 29.
This time, Australia will look to fellow intimidating left armer Starc to overcome the sleepy UAE surfaces. Like Johnson, Starc will surely be used in short, sharp stints with the sole aim of taking wickets.
By comparison, Siddle or Neser will be used as stock bowlers to try to tie up an end and build pressure for Starc and the spinners.
Agar would be able to perform a similar holding role. The tall left arm tweaker was impressive in two Tests in Bangladesh last year, taking seven wickets at 23 and going at a miserly 2.62 runs per over.
Ashton Agar is a fine prospect for the Aussie Test team as an all rounder. (AFP, Saeed Khan)
Agar would also add to Australia’s batting depth, having averaged 32 with the bat across his brief Test career.
Yet I sense he is behind Holland in the spin pecking order and will only play if Australia decide to field three tweakers. Since struggling in his debut Test series, in Sri Lanka two years ago, Holland has been outstanding in first-class cricket.
He has taken 71 wickets at 21 in that time, including a match-winning nine-wicket haul for Australia A against India A in Bangalore earlier this month.
Holland is a more attacking option than Agar as he bowls with greater loop and more often beats batsmen in the air. Agar’s main weapons are his accuracy and the bounce he earns thanks to his 189cm frame.
I expect Agar to sit out the first Test, with Holland and Siddle both getting chances to reignite their Test careers.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I just saw a post on ESPNcricinfo suggesting that the Pakistan A side selected to play Australia's sole warm-up game has been picked without a single spinner in it. Feels like a new low when it comes to doing warm-up games for opposition. It's one thing throwing teams of youngsters with little first class experience, but explicitly avoiding any spin before a series likely to feature it heavily is just seriously wrong. When it comes to all the talk about teams needing to play more warm-up matches before test series, it's things like this, as much as the tight scheduling that is why teams don't bother playing so many. What's the point of playing warm-up matches when the opposition are going to do everything to make the warm-up match as useless as possible. In the end they are better just getting their own pitches prepared and arranging their own practice with their own people in their own camps rather than playing these sorts of warm-up matches.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
If Siddle plays Australia will get belted. He hasn't looked like taking wickets on these type of decks for a good 5 years! At least Neser has shown his ability to take wickets in these conditions in recent A tour.
AREH
Roar Guru
I love the arrogance straight away at the top of the order - the young man just goes from ball one, knowing no other way. Great to watch.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
I'd really like to see Zampa get a go in the ODIs next month, Australia's attack looked so much better balanced when he was in good form 18 months ago.
Rellum
Roar Guru
You should watch the highlights. He hits with incredible power off balls he probably shouldn't be hitting, even allowing for the tiny ground. Tom Copper looked great today, especially against the spinners. If he can score a head of runs then he might be a shot for national honors. Stanlake was fantastic today, so were all the QLD bowlers really. Zampa was very good vor SA, the rest of their attack was flayed to all parts by Bryant, Lynn and Heazlet. Heazlet score a run a ball 79 I think, but you barely noticed such was the hitting down the other end. QLD needs to replicate that for the next three games to get ready for the finals.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Bryant incredibly was on 69 from just 27 balls today against a very strong SA attack featuring four guys who've recently played for Australia - Richardson, Mennie, Sayers and Zampa.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
The Max Bryant is a massive talent for a 19 year old, he looks like such a great white ball prospect for Australia going forward. After 9 List A matches, he has 320 runs at 36 with a scorching strike rate of 125.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Siddle over Tremain is a complete head scratcher.
BurgyGreen
Guest
I think Finch has seriously tightened up over the past couple of years. Not enough to open, but enough to give me more confidence than Head as a Test bat
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Harvey did you watch Agar bat in the Tests in Bangladesh last winter? He batted for two-and-a-half hours in making a crucial 41no after coming to the crease with Australia in tatters at 7 for 124. He also made a sprightly 22 in the second Test which helped push Australia up to a match-winning first innings score. A first-class batting average of 26, with two tons and a 98, is indicative of someone who really adds value down the order.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
I think both Holland and Agar are good options. I think the selectors will pick Holland but I'd probably lean towards Agar because he bowled well in Bangladesh last year, and offers so much more than Holland as an all-round cricketer.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Rellum is spot on there, with Australia only picking one genuine wicket taking quick in Starc they need to select their two most attacking spin options if they're going to take 20 wickets on UAE pitches, which tend to be good for batting.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Head's career FC average is a bit misleading because it's skewed by his struggles as a teenager when he was thrown to the wolves because SA had such a small batting talent pool. Most batsmen don't become fixtures of their Shield team until they're 21 or older whereas Head was a fixture of the SA team at 18 and he wasn't ready, SA just had no one else so they gave him a go. Head played 20 Shield matches while he was still a teenager. As a comparison, guys like Hilton Cartwright and Jake Lehmann didn't reach 20 Shield matches until they were 24 years old, they never had their FC records skewed by trying to play Shield at 18/19 years old like Head. Head's FC record: As a teenager - 660 runs at 25 In his 20s - 3,931 runs at 40 Most importantly, Head's FC batting returns are on a clear upward curve - he's made nearly 2,000 runs at 43 in the past two years and that includes 8 matches he's played in the foreign conditions of England and India, where he made 545 runs at 39. All this explains why I think it's misleading to just look at his career FC average of 36.
JamesH
Roar Guru
"flashy counter-attacking player with a loose technique against the moving ball" Yeah but that's also a reasonable description of Finch. If you want to break up the lefties and have a more solid technique at 4 then (dare I say it) Mitch Marsh is a better option.
JamesH
Roar Guru
If you take a player's best knock out of a sample size of only seven innings (all in England or Bangladesh) then of course their average is going to suffer! Agar is a far, far better batsman than Holland. He'd bat at 8 in front of Starc.
JamesH
Roar Guru
... which is why guys like Herath and Jadeja thrive.
JamesH
Roar Guru
I agree, but I think it's an odd way to approach the bowling composition. Why not pick fast, wicket-taking seamers and employ them in short bursts, with the spinners playing the role of workhorse? I guess with Cummins injured they didn't want to risk an untried commodity in Tremain. The selection of Siddle to (apparently) tie up an end says to me they want to use Holland and Lyon as the attacking bowlers, but the pitches last time weren't exactly bunsen burners.
AREH
Roar Guru
Shows just how desperately they must want experienced figures around this XI. At least Siddle has some strong recent form behind him, but it would've been better served at the 2019 Ashes. He may well be part of that touring party. I just fear he will lack penetration on the ultra-flat UAE pitches, with Pakistan licking their lips at his inclusion - it's far from threatening. If he can keep things very economical as a workhorse bowler, he's done his job, but if he can't then I struggle to see what he offers.
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
Three players in our top 6 average well under 40 in first class. Head, Finch and M Marsh. The chances of long term success in Tests with that kind of first class record are close to zero. Not to say that one of them won’t do well short term in this series, but seriously? Picking people on the basis of white ball form is a nonsense. They may think it worked ok for Jos Buttler, but he was picked as a specialist number 7, and already had a semi respectable Test record in the lower middle order. And a sample size of one just proves the exception to the rule
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
Hate to say it, but they should be. May depend on pitch conditions. If Pakistan go with 3 quicks and leggie Yasir Shah, that will be to Usman’s and Australia’s benefit