So, it has happened: Valentine Holmes is off to follow a dream and try his hand in the NFL.
Following in the footsteps of Jarryd Hayne, it’s a move which is sure to draw plenty of attention.
I’m not going to sit here and claim to know whether he is going to make it or not – good luck to him.
What I am going to do though is just about write off the Sharks’ chances of a premiership in 2019. In fact, their chances of making the top eight would seem severely reduced without Holmes in what is shaping up as one of the most open NRL seasons in history.
While a majority of teams seem to have improved their sides this season, as well as those who were expected to go well last year but didn’t (read the North Queensland Cowboys and Parramatta Eels), the fight for finals spots could be even tighter than last year.
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The statement released by Cronulla in relation to the release of their star fullback made it clear they weren’t impressed:
“This news brings great disappointment to the Cronulla Sharks who have worked hard to re-sign Holmes to a five-year extension, which would have made him the highest paid player in the club’s history.”
And why would they be?
Holmes is a gun and while he had a long career in the NRL ahead as one of the best in the game, this is a monster gamble on his part.
At just 23 years of age, he already has experience for both Queensland and Australia and was one of the top ten players in the game last season with the ability to play both fullback and wing.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
While there were questions at the start of last year about whether or not he could play fullback, he proved those doubters wrong as the season went along.
Having an ability to rise up in the face of adversity of poor form is a talent to be admired, and it’s one Holmes came up with in spades when he needed it.
Even though Chad Townsend and Matt Moylan were strong in the halves at times, the Sharks never would have ended up where they did without Holmes leading the way from the back of the park.
His ability to chime in with good running and ball play was just about as good as it gets throughout the second half of 2018.
This is a giant loss for Shane Flanagan, and one which he is going to struggle to replace. But more than that, the club has already lost so much talent from their backline.
Given they made the top four in 2018, it’s hard to write them off entirely, but their work in the transfer market hasn’t been positive, with the loss of gun young centre Jesse Ramien and Edrick Lee to the Knights, as well as Ricky Leutele to Toronto.
That’s three out from last year – adding Holmes to that list means there is going to be a lot of change in the back five for a club that struggled for consistency last season.
What will make the Sharks even more frustrated is that planning for 2019 would have included Holmes. That includes allowing a player like Ramien to exit.
When you consider what Ramien will be able to bring to a side in the years to come, it’s a decision which is now going to come back to bite the black, white and blue.
Add that to the loss of Jamayne Isaako two years ago, and it’s all starting to add up now in the backline, with a real lack of options in 2019.
At this stage, it looks as if Kyle Flanagan will finally get rewarded for banging the door down with a spot in the top 17.
Simply put, he has to be in the halves come Round 1. That probably pushes Matt Moylan back to cover the vacancy left at fullback, but then, his up-and-down performances last year don’t warrant a stay of execution at 6.
With a likely spine reading Moylan, Townsend, Flanagan and Jayden Brailey, it’s a far cry from one with Holmes in it.
It’s not just in the backline either. The loss of the retired Luke Lewis, and the ageing problems they have with players like Paul Gallen (37) and Matt Prior (31) will hurt.
(AAP Image/Michael Chambers)
That’s not to say Gallen and Prior haven’t been playing quality footy, but Father Time is undefeated. Injury could become a problem, as could the amount of minutes they have to play and workload of a full NRL season.
There is immense talent spread across the forward pack of course, and hopefully for Cronulla’s sake, they can have an injury-free run with Wade Graham this year.
Graham could now become the key to the club making the eight and pushing for higher honours.
The left-edge second rower needs to be at his best, aiding the halves combination, beefing up the defence, and adding a creative option – particularly with new combinations now needing to be tested in the middle of the park.
Still, even with Graham in the side, it just felt like things were tailing off at times last year.
In truth, the Sharks may have been lucky the competition was kept so close. It allowed them to make the run into the finals, where they were ultimately undone by a ruthless Melbourne Storm in the Victorian capital.
They may have only been a few plays away from beating the Roosters in Week 1 and scoring a much-needed week off, which may have landed them in the grand final, but the fact of the matter is that they didn’t, and things aren’t going to get any easier over the next 12 months.
It would appear that Holmes leaving will be the straw which breaks the camel’s back for another premiership in the Shire anytime soon.
Rob
Guest
Similary thoughts as mine. He wants out of the Sharks and he interested in seeing out the remaining year with them. He's no chance of returning to the Sharks now.
Adz Sportz
Roar Guru
Jack Bird would be their best option. I'm sure the Broncos could use the money to buy a decent half. Ben Barba seems he'd be happy to stay in Townsville, closer to family.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Sounds weird admittedly but Moylan is a quality 6,but an average fullback who doesn’t make significant meters bringing the ball back or pose the same amount of fear as SJ does anywhere on the field..after revisiting Johnson’s highlight reel,he’s got the same rhythm in the line as Ponga,but a tad more deceptive..it won’t happen,but I’d love to see it experimented..
Matt H
Roar Guru
The only person this is good for is Corey Oates
Paul
Roar Guru
The Sharkies are in a mess (again) and this time you're right, they won't make the finals Scott. The interesting bit is Holmes not being able to play for any other NRL Club next year if the returns from the NFL. I gather from the press the Sharks players, coaches, etc are less than impressed, so I wonder if he'd be welcomed back with open arms, or whether he'd be made to sit out the year? I know what I'd do and I'm sure Valentine wouldn't like it.
Larry1950
Guest
Never mind the impact on the Sharks, what about poor Kevvie and the Qld team? Our on guaranteed source of try scoring gone for the important season where Qld is hoping to turn back the blue tide with a bunch of retirements having just kicked in. Along with Nathan Brown stuffing about with Ponga's position, we don't need our young guns missing or out of position, it's going to be hard enough with a full roster available.
Don
Roar Rookie
I’d be backing that one as second option. Look for a deal to be done to get Barba to the Sharks faster than expected and Holmes to the Cowboys.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
Disappointing indeed, but there is little the club could do. The panic button IMO is not ready to be pushed. I can see Moylan slotting in a FB, and young Flanno slotting into the halves.The kid has speed, deception in attack and can read a game, he just needs more game time and no doubt NRL conditioning.
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
Selfish by Holmes, not for going to the US, but for doing it in November when most players have already signed for clubs so it's hard for Cronulla to replace him. Selfish!
Dominic Brady
Guest
Two outcomes from this: a) he goes through the process, eventually gets dropped, waste of time. The NFL is an incredibly internal and insular sport; if you're aren't american, you fighting an uphill battle - à la Hayne. Ultimately, the whole process will take 2-3 years; that's 2-3 years ultimately wasted. b) He makes a team and has a reasonably successful career - evading the 'cut' - however, what makes a successful career in the NFL - a player with Holmes' makeup & traits - will be made up of intermittent, sporadic contributions in the form kick-off returns. Now, compare that with the immediacy, prevalence & influence you have as a player in Rugby, and it's a no brainer for me - Rugby all the way. Alas, each to their own.
BA Sports
Roar Guru
They won't want to write off 2019 - Well Gallen certainly won't. They won the Jersey Flegg last year with a team made up largely of kids from the 2015 SG Ball side. They are going to be forced to blood some of those kids. That may be a good thing as it may give them some variety and explosiveness to their attack. They won't be able to keep playing 16-12 games.
BA Sports
Roar Guru
Why would you bring Shaun Johnson to the club to play fullback? He would play in the halves and Moylan at fullback if that was going to happen
Blake Standfield
Roar Guru
What an original thought.
Jimbob
Guest
1. Why would you assume that? Everything I've read suggests Hayne won't be seen again in the NRL 2. Why are NRL fans such slow learners? Hayne is poison, and anything he did on the field 5 years ago isn't worth the trouble he brings to a club.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
If Connor Watson,Moses Mbye and Aj Brimson can make the grade as an NRL fullback in the modern game,I’ve got no doubt,well relatively none,that a far superior attacking force in Shaun Johnson can..he’s roughly the same size as those fellas and exactly the same as Billy Slater..would opponents risk kicking it to him and give him space ? Far greater skill set than Holmes and could well do with the career refreshment such a new club,a positional change and a consistently top 4 side climate would bring him...chase hard Flanno !
thomas c
Guest
Yeah, it was an awful move from Holmes leaving them completely in the lurch. You owe yourself things, but as Gallen observed, it's a team sport. You owe your teammates something more than leaving them abruptly and at a disadvantage.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Losing players like Holmes and Ramien could easily lead to the situation where the remaining players like Moylan over play their hand in attack instead of playing a support role a lot of the time. I think it explains the form of a lot of players in weaker teams. Any one who has played sport with one or two gun players in the team know that doing the basics really well sets them free and is satisfying in itself. Having strike players like Teddy and Mitchell really motivated the Chooks players I believe because any hard work is often rewarded.
JVGO
Guest
More likely they get Jack Bird who is not happy at the Broncos and wants to come back to the Sharks. Play Bird at centre and Doogs at fullback. I imagine the phones are running hot as we speak.
Greg
Guest
Scott you're assuming that the Sharks aren't going to spend the $800k that Holmes is apparently on, there's still a lot of player movement to be done yet. The Sharks may well end up being premiership favourites if they can secure the signature of one Cameron Smith who is reportedly at a stalemate with the Storm. Failing that they could go after Alex Johnston who wants to play fullback, he's no Holmes but goes ok, or they could go after Shaun Johnson. Failing all of those options they could write off 2019 and use Holmes' money to do a reverse Hasler and forward-end as many contracts as possible, eg if Moylan is on $700K per year give him $1.2M next year and $200K the year after and go hard in the player market in 2020.
AGO74
Guest
There was management earlier this year of him wanting to be released for 2019 but Sharks rightly torpedoed it. Be interesting to know if he'd have pursued this dream if the Sharks had released him to play for NQ in 2019. I suspect not. I think he's just thought, I'm leaving the sharks at end of 2019 anyway and the NFL is a scratch I really really want to itch, I'm only 23 and if it doesn't work out then I'll be there in 2020 with 8-10 years playing back home in North Qld. In other words, the opportunity will never arise. In one way, kudos to him for taking the risk, but in another he's really scuppered the sharks for next year. Sharks had come to accept he'd be leaving but unfortunately the Sharks won't even get benefit of 2019 - but as the article alludes to it really harms their 2019 chances. FYI - Jessie Ramien was never staying. He was always moving to Newcastle so as to be close to his family.