Several of the 2018 finalists met an inglorious end last September. It was almost a theme of the finals series.
Richmond was demolished by Collingwood in the first preliminary final, Melbourne were utterly pathetic against West Coast in the second. Hawthorn didn’t fire a shot in being bundled out in straight sets. Geelong could only manage six goals in their elimination final.
But the most embarrassing performance of the 2018 finals series was from the Sydney Swans, where they scored a meagre 30 points.
And, frankly, they were lucky to get that many, kicking two late goals when the match was well and truly over. There was a 70-minute period of the game where they added only two behinds to their tally.
The performance was a surprise because in the lead-up to finals, Sydney had beaten Collingwood, Melbourne and Greater Western Sydney to establish their credentials. Was that run home a truer reflection of their position and potential, or has the perennial contender come to the end of the road?
Sydney best 22
B: N.Smith A.Aliir L.Melican
HB: J.Lloyd D.Rampe C.Mills
C: G.Hewett J.Kennedy H.Cunningham
HF: W.Hayward L.Franklin O.Florent
F: D.Menzel S.Reid T.Papley
Foll: C.Sinclair I.Heeney L.Parker
Int: J.McVeigh B.Ronke Z.Jones K.Jack
Em: H.Grundy J.Thurlow T.McCartin
Generational change is sweeping through the lines.
We see examples of this down back through Callum Millis (55 games), Aliir Aliir (28) and Lewis Melican (20), with a veteran like Heath Grundy potentially on the outer.
Few can control the air like Aliir when he is on song, an athletic ball of muscle that reads the play well. Melican has strengths in this area too, so in time the two could form quite the potent duo.
There is always talk of Mills leaving the backline to join the midfield, but he looks more of a natural behind the ball and may not provide as much as people think if taking centre square duties. He could quite easily be a player that doesn’t improve much beyond his first year or two, that has a base and ceiling very close together.
Dane Rampe is not the offensive player he once was, being asked to defend more in recent seasons, so could potentially be let off the leash in the right circumstances. Nick Smith has been a lock-down back pocket since South Melbourne moved to Sydney.
The prime mover in the backline is Jake Lloyd, who last year had the ball in his hands more any other Swan. He led his team in marks and disposals, and was top five in the league for uncontested possessions.
Lloyd is one of the best short-medium kicks in the comp, if not the best, so using him to rebound as often as possible made sense. But Lloyd’s weight of numbers was also due to the Sydney game style which was to absorb a lot of inside 50’s and then try to run the ball out. This won them a premiership in 2012 under the guise of slingshot footy, but it’s seven years later now and that format isn’t sustainable.
There is also inexperience up forward, with plenty of younger players surrounding Lance Franklin. Tom Papley has played 60 games, and there is also Will Hayward (40), Ollie Florent (32), Ben Ronke (18) and Tom McCartin (15), with talk of Nick Blakey sure to get games in his first season too.
Papley is smart, Hayward a natural, Ronke clever. And some hard markers would say McCartin showed more in one year than his older brother, Paddy, has shown at St Kilda in four.
But Florent looks the player of the future, one that can become a genuine star of the competition. He has a burst of speed that he knows how to use tactically, and showed with a mid-season run of form what he is capable of.
Buddy will once again be the focus of the forward-line though, and will doubtless dazzle us with his exploits. All the talk last year was that he didn’t train for the entire season, yet was still named All-Australian captain.
Will Franklin’s production start to dip, hitting 2019 at 32 years of age? And will he move further and further up the ground, potentially playing off a wing? If he loses his speed and mobility, he doesn’t have contested marking to fall back on.
Lance Franklin (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
What can Dan Menzel produce in a new environment? Is there room for him, McCartin, Blakey and Sam Reid in the same forward-line? One or two of them are going to have to miss out.
Do Sydney use Sam Naismith as the primary ruck, and push Callum Sinclair back to full-forward, which makes them taller still? Sinclair is coming off a career-best year rucking solo, to the extent that the next most hit-outs for the Swans was the de-listed Dean Towers with 25. They had no back-up ruckman, but do the new rules force a change?
John Longmire has liked playing two ruckmen in the past, when he’s had the appropriate candidates fit and available. Sinclair is not much of a tap artist, and the feeling is that Sydney lost some centre square advantage last season – this was seen internally as a reason why their SCG record was so poor, given winning territory on the smaller ground is key.
Isaac Heeney was voted ahead of best and fairest winner Luke Parker and ex-skipper Josh Kennedy in The Roar Top 50, which some will object to. Heeney has superstar qualities, and must be given more midfield responsibility to demonstrate them.
Parker is tough and rugged, but lacks the class to put him in the truly elite. Josh Kennedy’s output has started to diminish as time goes on, but he played more forward last year than previous. We know what we’re getting from him. George Hewett is one of the best run with players going around, and will likely start to transition to a more offensive role.
Sydney are in a position now where they don’t have much exposed depth, hence bringing in the likes of Jackson Thurlow from Geelong and Ryan Clarke from North. The Swans of old used to find plenty of treasure from other clubs trash – can they do so again? Both are in the right age bracket, if there is anything there to unearth. Kieren Jack may well have his spot taken by someone like Clarke.
A new suite of assistants has been brought in to support the tired and stale John Longmire. Longmire can churn out the same old style forever and have teams be competitive – especially when they get unearned free kicks like Heeney, Mills and Blakey every year or two. But he needs to find a way to inject more pace and flair into his team, some brighter ball movement, and more offensive power.
If the Swans keep trying to play attritional footy with ball movement from the back half, they will cop some spankings this year. The dam wall will break at various stages, against the top quality teams. We hark back to last year when even the pitiful Gold Coast was able to run them ragged.
Sydney were 12th in points for in 2018, and had the worst percentage of any side in the eight. Add in the ignominious finals exit, no top-class players added during the off-season, and it points a picture of a side going south.
The Swans have always got people writing them off and, usually, they resist. But are they going to hack around the bottom of the eight again, or will they go backwards before going forward once more?
Prediction: tenth
Preview series
10. Sydney
11. Brisbane
12. Hawthorn
13. Port Adelaide
14. Western Bulldogs
15. St Kilda
16. Fremantle
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast
michael RVC
Roar Pro
GF is by no means the only measure of success. Unfortunately Brissy do not belong in any top 3 assessment of the best performed clubs this century.
Julz
Guest
No mate Buddy moved to Sydney for luuurrve.
Dean
Guest
So many commentators do this, not many know how to truly commentate the game anymore. If you had to rely on the commentary to tell you where the ball was you would have no idea. BT is all about self promotion and hanging with the boys. Sometimes l turn the sound off and listen to radio. To many with inflated egos and self worth. Brereton is one of the worse. Absolute drivel from him.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Dean - on another site a Carlton supporter said that they had run into Roughead at a function at Crown this week and spoke to him for about 30 minutes, Roughy said Bolton has been following Clarkson's play book closely, first few year all education and support and then the expectations and demands get layered on top of that as the list matures.
Dean
Guest
Probably equal forth most successful side this Century. Lions, Hawks and Cats the top 3, in order of preference. I would have Sydney equal with the eagles.
Dean
Guest
That depends peter. I was 6 when my Grandma forced a bulldogs top on me and took a picture. I remember taking it off straight away and said l wanted to barrack for Hawthorn. A debuting Dermott Brereton swayed me pretty quickly that year. In the end it was a pretty good choice.
Dean
Guest
Disregarding Russell Macca but Bolton would have learnt some things under Clarkson. The culture of the club and its attitude had a impact when Bolton was appointed and that has something to do with Bolton but also what he learnt from Clarkson and the Hawthorn football club. It's no coincidence that the last 3 years all premiership coaches have had an apprenticeship under Clarkson in particular Simpson and Hardwick. Some of the core values and systems and they way Clarkson went about it would have rubbed off on them at some point and influenced some of their coaching techniques. West Coast has a very similar style to the Hawks successful run and worked for them also. None of the coaches l have mentioned would all say that Clarkson and Hawthorn had an impact on their careers and the way they have approached things. Don't get this wrong, they are all there own men and approach coaching in their own way but it would be silly to say that Clarkson didn't impact their careers and influence their core values and what it means to coach a successful side. Most coaches in the league have been influenced by a senior coach in one way or another. Clarkson himself would of adopted and adapted his coaching skill working under pagan. On the light side of things my best mate is a Carlton supporter and he has been telling me for the past 12 years that you are going to win every year. I think in 2009 he told me Carlton would win 5 in a row. I won't be able to handle when you do win one. He still goes on about 95 to me.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Any converted supporter should be banned from the game for a start. Do I wish I followed the Hawks? Yes. Can I ever? No.
Macca
Roar Rookie
The problem is with the blues getting Bolton & Russell from the hawks even when the worm turns he will simply claim it took Hawthorn to turn us around!! ;) The worst part is though Pete, both his parents are Carlton supporters and they let him be converted by the school bus driver!! It criminal.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I have a brother-in-law like that Macca. He follows the Tigers. Eventually, revenge is the sweetest joy. Your time will come.
Macca
Roar Rookie
It isn't hate, but the blues play the Swans twice this year so it would be great if the Swans dropped. As for the Hawks my brother in law is a loud mouth Hawks supporter and since I have known him the blues have beaten the Hawks once in 11 years.
Macca
Roar Rookie
You really should take a look at how much each club gets in subsidies
Macca
Roar Rookie
You need a better memory. A $65 million upgrade of the stadium to accommodate the GWS Giants was announced on 9 June 2010.[4] Jointly funded by the NSW Government, the AFL and the RAS, the upgrade included two new stands which increased seating capacity from 13,000 to 25,000
Macca
Roar Rookie
Neither were Metricon, Spotless or Optus before the govts and afl ponied up the cash.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Once again you are missing the point, nobody is arguing it isn’t more difficult to travel than not, the question is are the negatives of travelling greater than the benefits of having a home ground advantage – as yet you have not provided any evidence that they are. And once again you have shown you really don’t know what you are talking about, the blues play 7 games at the MCG, 5 of themare home games. And it isn’t cherry picking to point to the central tenent of the argument.
Dean
Guest
Couldn't agree more with you Jim. Sides like the Swans, Hawks and Cats don't stay down for too long and turn things around pretty quickly. All these clubs have had great cultures, systems and structures for years that have been the envy of other clubs. GWS, Carlton, Suns and Saints have proven that top ten draft picks year after year doesn't equal success. Swans, Hawks etc won't have years of pain in the bottom 6. Only teams who are mismanaged and the wrong people in place do. Thatsashame must support a team that's been in the bottom 6 for years. Sounds bitter.
Dean
Guest
You are eventually going to be right one year. Teams like the Hawks, Swans and Cats don't stay down for too long and will turn around pretty quickly. You just have to check out last week's JLT Hawks vs Lions game. Basically Box Hill vs a near full strength lions and were not embarrassed at all. These sides tend to make the right choices and look for footballers rather than athletes. As a hawks supporter l do see them dropping off but have faith in the hawthorn system and structures that will see them rebound pretty quickly. The same for the cats and swans.
Dean
Guest
You will eventually be right one year. Both these clubs will turn around pretty quickly and won't be down for long. Who do you support?
Dean
Guest
Why is that Macca? Would you be hoping the same if Carlton was up all this time. Haters gotta hate.
Davico
Roar Pro
Wow you sure know how to cherry pick I will give you that! Carlton play at Marvel because they are rubbish and no one wants to see a half empty MCG. Interstate teams have to play half less one game with significant travel involved. Carlton and the other Melbourne teams do not have to travel at all and for weeks on end for periods of the season. Much harder to travel thousands of Ks every week to play professional sport than to get to play at 1 of 2 grounds 3/4s of the season without travel. But considering you prob have never left the bubble would not expect you to know.