With Aaron Finch already locked into one opening batting berth, the selectors have David Warner and Usman Khajawa to pick from as the skipper’s partner.
Both combinations are proven to be world-class.
There have been 4124 ODIs decided since the first on 5 January 1971 at the MCG between Australia, captained by Bill Lawry, and England, led by Ray Illingworth.
Australia won by five wickets, with England leftie John Edrich named man of the match for his 82. Ian Chappell top-scored for Australia with 60.
Of those 4124 games there have been 76 opening batting combinations worthy of worldwide recognition. Both Aaron Finch-Usman Khawaja and Finch-Warner are ranked among the elite.
But the former has been outstanding to be among the top three on average per innings.
At the top of the list are Pakistan’s Mohammad Hafeez and Nasir Jamshed (2012-13), who averaged 70.50 from 12 innings with 846 runs, a top stand of 224, plus one half-century and four-century partnerships together.
Then comes Finch and Khawaja (2013-19), averaging 64.07 from 14 digs, with 897 runs, a top of 209 with three centuries and four half-centuries.
In third place is India’s Shikhar Dhawan and Ajinkya Rahane (2014-17) at 64.05 from 18 stands, 1153 runs, a top partnership of 231 with five centuries and three half-centuries.
Finch and Warner have averaged 44.29 from 48 innings, tallying 2126 runs, a top stand of 231 with five centuries and ten half-centuries.
(Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
That’s a big tick to retain the Finch-Khawaja combination for the World Cup.
But there are some side issues that need to be taken into account. Finch came out of a bad eight-game drought where he scored just 105 runs at 13.12 to fire in his last nine trips to the crease with 608 runs at 76. Khawaja has been in superb form all year as the leading international run-getter, with 769 at 59.15 ahead of Finch’s 634 at 52.83.
To put those stats in perspective, the world’s undisputed best ODI batsman, Virat Kohli, is third, with 611 at 55.54. That gives the Finch-Khawaja combination another massive tick for retention.
But the sleeper is David Warner, who has been out of action for the last 12 months under suspension, playing his last ODI against England at Perth’s new stadium last January, the first international cricket match at Optus Stadium.
Unlike Finch and Khawaja firing in their more recent innings, Warner’s last 13 ODI visits managed only 397 at 33.08 with one ton, while his previous 13 amassed 1052 at 80.92 with six tons.
That’s the reason why the Finch-Warner career average innings of 44.29 is 20 runs less than the Finch-Khawaja’s career average.
But the ticks are still with the latter.
With no ODI form over the last year, Warner’s only plus is his current form in the IPL, where he leads the tournament run-getters ahead of KL Rahul and Chris Gayle.
Let’s take into account running between wickets where Warner excels, and both Finch and Khawaja are lazy.
If Warner were to open, he’d press Finch every time, grabbing those extra runs through mistakes in the field and they all add up. He would do the same with Khawaja if Finch were dismissed first. That tick goes to Warner.
The next comparisons are their individual averages facing the first ball of a dig or being at the non-striker’s end.
Khawaja averages 54.76 when he faces the first ball and 51.16 as non-striker. Warner facing the first ball averages 52.39; if he starts as the non-striker, he’s averaging 34.75. Finch is averaging 40.84 facing the first ball and 39.21 as the non-striker. They are all in the same boat, batting better when they face the first ball.
And that leaves strike rates as opening batsmen. Warner strikes at 96.88, Finch 88.21, and Khawaja 85.99. Coupled with Warner’s outstanding running between wickets, the Finch-Warner combination gets the nod, with Khawaja at three. But the alternative is certainly positive.
For the record, there are eight other Australian opening batting combination averages listed among the top career 76:
- 55.46: Adam Gilchrist and Simon Katich (2004-06) from 1442 runs, top stand of 196 with three centuries and nine half-centuries;
- 48.39: Gilchrist and Matt Hayden (2001-08) from 5372 runs, 172 top stand, with 16 centuries and 29 half-centuries;
- 47.47: Shaun Marsh and Shane Watson (2008-11) from 807 runs, 145 top stand, with two centuries and six half-centuries;
- 45.78: Brad Haddin and Watson (2009-11) from 1282 runs, 183 top stand, with three centuries and eight half-centuries;
- 45.60: Mark Taylor and Mark Waugh (1993-97) from 1368 runs, 189 top stand, with three centuries and seven half-centuries;
- 41.43: Gilchrist and Waugh (1998-2002) from 3853 runs, 206 top stand, with eight centuries and 20 half-centuries;
- 40.03: David Boon and Geoff Marsh (1986-92) from 3523 runs, 212 top stand, with seven centuries and 25 half-centuries; and
- 37.00: Michael Slater and Taylor (1993-96) from 999 runs, 121 top stand, with two centuries and seven half-centuries.
Hemant
Roar Rookie
In sports the logic is clear : the defending champion wins the championship or the world number one ranked team wins , australia is the defending champion of world cup and australia can win this world cup !
Fox
Roar Guru
Well John the ICC have had a protocol in place since 2003 that the ball used for the WC is always the one normally most used in the host nations conditions and that is the Duke in England. The ICC announced the Duke ball would be used and then the Indian media came out in stupid big fuss saying because it swing more and for longer, it would be a disadvantage to the Indian top order - no doubt backed by Indian TV networks who want big scoring games as well. But last I heard the ICC was not having a bar of it and maintained their protocol. One of the few times they have stood up to pressure from India to get their own way. If that has changed it is news to me and I have just done some checking and seen nothing about the Duke ball being changed.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Given Smith's strong ODI record at 1st drop, good recent form of Kawaja-Finch partnership and our absence of a power hitter in the middle order to share the burden with Maxwell, doesn't it make most sense to bring Warner in at 4 or 5? It would make an intimidating line-up.
Peter Warrington
Guest
your description sounds like S MArsh. who has done it since 2016. Smith? no form. not at all.
ChrisH
Roar Rookie
I don’t care that my Aussie heritage goes back to the mid-1800s, I’d hate to see the Aussies win. Again! Nothing worse in sport than one team dominating for years and years. In this case, 20 years. Between 1979 and 1996, five different teams won. Awesome! Between 1999 and 2015, Australia won four out of five. Yawn! I hope after this World Cup we can at least say “The last three have been one by three different teams” and even better, to be won by a team that never has before.
ak
Roar Guru
If Khawaja is selected in playing 11 then he has to bat as an opener. Any other place won't work for him. Smith at 3 is the ideal candidate. He needs time to settle but once he gets his eye in he can get the big scores. Smith can get the big scores and also stabilise one end. Then Warner can bat at 4. He can give the middle order the firepower coupled with stability. Then the bighitters. Since its England its important to have proper batsmen in the top 4.
JOHN
Guest
They're going to use the Kookaburra ball in England
Fox
Roar Guru
Yes and there's that thing called the swinging ball DL in conditions where the ball swings like in NZ and England - and this time with Duke ball. Australia only played one game in NZ's swinging conditions in the last WC and their batting line-up was decimated by the mastery of Trent Boult - England suffered the same fate against Southee in Auckland in that WC. In the NZ game Starc also had a field day but to no avail in the end. I am not so certain this current Australian batting lineup will cope with conditions where the ball swings up against world class swing ball attacks and the swinging ball has been an issue in the recent past for the Australian batting line-up. If teams can expose the Australian middle and lower middle order when the balls are still new and still swinging, they could be in trouble as they were in NZ last WC but this time they play more than one game in those real swing conditions. We shall see.
Water Car Engineer
Guest
Ain't the best top 3, but could get the job done for us. If bowlers can back us up well, we are very good chance for 6th.
JayG
Roar Rookie
I think they will go with the squad you say but I think they should go with Warner Khawaja Smith Finch Stoinis Maxwell Carey Cummins Starc Lyon/Richardson Zampa With Stoinis and Maxwell positions interchangeable.
Peter Warrington
Guest
I am beginning to bore even myself, so I will go out with a bang and speak no more on this obsession. my team: Anyone But Smith Anyone But Smith Anyone But Smith (c) Anyone But Smith Anyone But Smith Anyone But Smith (wk) Anyone But Smith Anyone But Smith Anyone But Smith Anyone But Smith Anyone But Smith ... done...
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
It will be interesting to see. Khawaja has one of the slowest imaginable scoring rates for someone averaging over 60 this year. And there are big doubts if he can score anywhere other than at opener, including given his difficulties starting against pace. There is a real danger that excitement over his and Finch’s recent form obscures the fact that it came against Pakistan B, with no first selection front line bowlers. It’s more or less the reverse of moaning about the fact we lost 5-0 in England last year with a bowling attack of Stanlake, Tye and Kane Richardson. Plus Khawaja has zero ODI experience in England and a very poor List A record at County level (average of 28). Will this affect him? My tip is that Khawaj and Smith, who looks very rusty and had a bad ODI year before the suspension, will end up being a problem for Australia, but they will find out too late in the tournament. Although maybe not as big as Stoinis.
bigbaz
Roar Guru
I’m a bit worried about the middle order load Maxwell May have to carry. ( I’ll probably get over it)
jameswm
Roar Guru
Agreed, I’d have Turner
Paul
Roar Guru
David, a clear point you make is we should be expecting good starts, regardless which combination is chosen to open. The headline in this piece hints at ONE of the issues Australia must get right, if we're to mount a successful WC defence. For mine, I'd use any opening combination that is best suited to make runs against the opposition attack, eg against England, Warner must open, because we need to get away to a flyer, whereas against Pakistan or India, we may use Khawaja, given the recent successes he and Finch have had and bat Warner down the order to bring more hitting into the latter overs. You don't have to be Einstein to know this is a good, but not great Australian ODI side. If we ARE going to win it, we have to do the 1%ers well, all the time. You mentioned improved running between wickets. Finch needs to get his field placements right to maximize our chances to take wickets, while cutting off the runs. Fielders can't make mistakes and a goal must be; no missed catches, no misfields. Bowlers must NOT give away free hits or extra deliveries. Finch must make sure the 50 overs fits within the allotted time, etc. If we genuinely give it our best shot and it's obvious the side is giving it everything, I for one won't be disappointed if we lose. There are at least 4 other sides who could win it in my book and all they need to do is have 2 good days in the finals.
Simon
Guest
They could get us off to solid starts but I'd love Ashton Turner at the end to put an exclamation point on our totals. If Stoinis is out of form still, you've got a pretty weak 6 and 7. Carey has done well but he's never going to be in that supreme finisher category
Graham
Guest
I think Warner down the order gives the team balance. Khawaja is open or bust for mine Khawaja Finch Smith Warner Maxwell Stoinis Carey
Tony H
Roar Pro
I have the same team, but with Smith at 3 and Warner at 4.
jameswm
Roar Guru
I think they’ll go like this, with Marsh squeezed out. Finch Khawaja Warner Smith Maxwell Stoinis Carey Cummins Starc Lyon/Richardson Zampa