Melbourne has confounded us all. Show me someone who says they saw this Demon season coming and I’ll show you a liar, a fool, or both.
The Dees could mount a comeback, and surge from a 1-5 record to something approaching 11 or 12 wins in their final 16 games. It has been done before: Sydney came from 0-6, and Richmond 2-6, in 2017 and 2014 respectively. They were both embarrassed by nine goals or more in their respective finals losses.
History says Melbourne’s 2019 season is all but finished when it comes to the realistic premiership ambitions held by them and most of the league at large.
How did it come to this? There will be plenty written and spoken over the next week or so, to be sure. Much of it, we hope, will be informed by some conversations had in confidence, because there is nothing about the circumstances we thought Melbourne found itself in heading into the year that lead to this outcome. Something has gone terribly awry.
Alex Neal-Bullen and Christian Petracca of the Demons (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Indeed, immediate past Melbourne coach Paul Roos hinted “something has gone terribly awry” on Fox Footy. Roos suggested the team’s coaching structure may be contributing to the multitude of issues leading to the singular problem of a 1-5 record.
On the field it is playing out in two key ways: an abject failure of the side’s defensive game – which, OK, you could’ve seen coming if you squinted a little – and a breakdown of its ability to transition the ball in attack. Sprinkle in some mean regression from its powerful midfield, and you have these sorts of catastrophic outcomes.
Points for: 69.3 per game, ranked 16th. Points against: 100.2 per game, ranked 17th. Quarters won: 8, ranked 16th. Uncontested possession differential: -38 per game, ranked 16th.
It’s bad. And there is no reason to expect it will get any better this season.
Melbourne was impotent against Richmond from about the 20-minute mark of the first quarter through to the end of the game. They won plenty of the ball – a contested possession differential of +11 on the game, built on a sturdy +18 start in the first quarter – but like every week to date simply couldn’t do anything with it.
This Melbourne is a far cry from the Melbourne that ran over the top of the eventual premiers, the West Coast Eagles, on their home deck in Round 22 last season.
The improvisation has already begun. Clayton Oliver started at full forward at the first bounce. Tom McDonald – don’t look at my preseason predictions column please – has been thrown behind the ball. Michael Hibberd, an All Australian half back 30 games ago, tagged Dustin Martin for much of last night. These are the moves you make when you know moves need to be made, which is also when things are pretty dire.
It should continue. The spectre of Melbourne’s tanking shenanigans loom over any talk of a team playing for next year. But that is precisely what the Dees should be doing from today onwards.
Reminder: “tanking” is not tanking. If you do it right, and follow the Six Steps to Tanking Perfection, you can earn some extra credit now to spend at a later date.
Average players who are known quantities – I’m looking at you, Sam Frost – should be left out of the team in favour of players who could add a little bit of something. The Dees can look to their opponents from yesterday evening for some inspiration: Sydney Stack and Jack Ross have given the Tigers an instant exogenous boost.
Steven May and Jake Lever should be conservatively managed back to full health. If that means May’s groin evolves into an OP diagnosis, so be it. Lever’s knee injury history demands kid gloves as it is, so extending his return to 2020 isn’t that big a stretch. Any material injuries from this point should be seen as an opportunity to accelerate a preseason program.
Melbourne’s young midfield core should have the keys turned over to them. Oliver, Angus Brayshaw, Jack Viney, James Harmes, Christian Salem and Christian Petracca should be the starting five every week from here on out. I mean you write those names on a page and you look at how it’s playing out on the field, and it just doesn’t make sense.
Max Gawn of the Demons looks dejected after defeat during the round one AFL match between the Melbourne Demons and the Port Adelaide Power at Melbourne Cricket Ground on March 23, 2019 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
And yes, that means Christian Petracca plays on the ball. In the words of an esteemed member of Footy Twitter last night, it’s time Melbourne worked out exactly what to do with their former number two draft pick. Two years ago it looked as though he was going to become the next great high half forward, with a raking right boot and power to bullock through every player in the league.
Instead we get the sort of half a game of insipid handball receives that we got last night, with the occasional spurt of brilliance.
There isn’t a team in the league who wouldn’t have a crack at rehabilitating him from his early career malaise. If Petracca can’t handle the heat of an on-ball workload, the worst that can happen (in a tanking scenario) is the Dees get one almightily strong pre-text to trade him at the end of the year.
Melbourne holds both its first and second round picks in the 2019 draft. It’s not clear it needs them; Melbourne’s list ticks almost every box imaginable for a team on the rise, right down to the rump of pre-prime age players who should age together nicely. By taking actions to improve its chances in subsequent seasons, it can ensure the picks it owns are as valuable as possible.
Demons coach Simon Goodwin. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
It may then come down to whether the Dees have the salary cap space to make any adjustments around the edges that emerge as necessary in September and October. One complicating factor will be the end of Clayton Oliver’s draftee contract extension, signed after he had played his seventh AFL games and before he emerged as a future Brownlow Medal contender.
The Dees will have provisioned for him to begin to earn at that level, but given the moves of recent years one has to assume the club’s salary cap flexibility is limited.
That’s still a ways in the future. But given the way the season has unfolded for the Dees, it isn’t so far that it should be out of their minds. Indeed, there’s not a lot which should shake those investors who are long on Melbourne stock, save perhaps a downgrade to the team’s off field leadership rating (which soared in 2018).
Melbourne might be done for now, but they will be back. There is too much talent available to this team for its last seven games to be a harbinger of the end of a run that never really got going. If it is, something will have truly gone awry.
anon
Roar Pro
Before the season I thought that top 4 was par for Melbourne when you look at their list, but so mentally flaky that finishing 1st or 10th wouldn't leave me surprised either way (I've never made a similar statement on here about any other team). I didn't think bottom 4 was within the realms of possibility though. Just with Melbourne, they took until round 22 to score a win over a top 8 team by going to Perth and beating a West Coast with injuries to Kennedy and Darling. Elimination Final win was strong, but the Cats are a much weaker team on the MCG. Next week had a Hawks team that had basically hit the wall. The margin flattered Melbourne. They were mistake riddled, didn’t look sharp, looked a little nervous. Next week were utterly embarrassed by West Coast in the Preliminary Final. I’ve said before that I think Melbourne is a top four team in 2019, but it really wouldn’t surprise me if they finish 1st or 10th. There’s a bit of flat track bully about them.
Grints
Roar Rookie
Oh no its a personel issue - the personal that held it together last year just arnt this year. I was trying not to bag out players but Frost for example was servicable last year when he came in for Lever - this year hes been nothing short of terrible... the key personnel the Demons have bought in to sure up the defense are currently missing - the back ups are out of form...
Cat
Roar Guru
Lever only played 11 games last year and May none (for the Demons) yet Melbourne were far superior last year compared to this year. May was supposed to be icing on the cake and Melbourne went fine without Lever so it isn't a personnel issues – it is clearly a game plan and tactics issue.
Cat
Roar Guru
As I said Richie, injuries are a factor but Don uses them as the be all and end all excuse. Freo is absolutely perfect except for injuries according to what Don posts. No team makes it through a season without injuries. Successful clubs find ways to deal with them. People said WCE was nothing without Natianui, yet they won a flag without him and several other. The Bulldogs had a lot of injuries in their premiership year and still found a way. Collingwood had a boatload of injuries last year and still made a Grand Final. If a clubs game plan is sound then they can slot players in as needed and not lose a huge amount. If a club relies too heavily on what one specific player does then when that player goes out they struggle.
The Milkman
Roar Rookie
It’s so lazy to lambaste people for making pre-season predictions. Aside from the media personalities who make ultimatums for clicks, what’s wrong with saying “I think X team will be good this year”? Perhaps we should all say literally nothing until the premiership is won this year, wouldn’t that be fun. Hindsight’s a b*tch. If we could predict the future then tipping would be fairly pointless, wouldn’t it?
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Jaime, a couple of points: 1. Jack Watts's elation after Round 1 had nothing to do with Melbourne and his time at the Club - it was all to do with his personal life being front page about cheating on his GF and using drugs (or indicating how much he liked using them) 2. Tom Scully left due to money - nothing more nothing less. The Giants were as uncompetitive as Melbourne when they entered the league. 3. Jesse Hogan seems to have been willingly traded to Fremantle by Melbourne so there might be something in the background here but it had nothing to do with a tanking culture. Aside from those points I agree wholeheartedly that tanking for picks doesn't do any Club any favours and promotes a losing mentality with a "it will all come together if we just get through the next five years" attitude. Look at Carlton - they tanked and picked up Kreuzer, Gibbs, Murphy and managed to land Chris Judd shortly thereafter and achieved nothing. They are now into yet another iteration of tanking and collecting early Round picks like SPS, Dow, Walsh, McKay, Curnow etc. It said plenty when the Dees players called the AFLPA to prevent a pre-season camp going to ahead which was designed to test their mental and physical ability. They read their own press over the summer, Steven May turned up out of shape in October after the Suns season finished in August, T. McDonald can't find the footy of kick goals like 2018 and it all seems to be a bit of a cluster. You can bet the AFL would of been super keen to see the Dees win a Flag and break another of those insanely long Premiership droughts ala Sydney 2005, Geelong 2007, Western Bulldogs 2016, Richmond 2017 etc.
William
Guest
I'm a Dees fan and this start has not surprised me at all. Well, maybe I didn't think it would be this bad but I considered us a final eight chance, no more. All the talk of premiership contenders I clearly saw as utter nonsense. For most of last year we were contending for the eight, and with two rounds to go had the Eagles in Perth and GWS. On all form to that time we would lose both games and miss the finals. But hey presto, we hit form, won those two and kept it going for two more matches. But that was it. The truth is we got lucky and hit a purple patch for a month at the right time, and clouded everyone's perception of a team that had for five months been average. A team that had the advantage of having a relatively soft draw (of the five teams we played twice only one of the was a top eight side), and had still been unable to secure a finals spot. And, remember, this is the MFC. Failure, mediocrity and underachievement have been standard for over 50 years. It takes A LOT to change that culture, and I've seen nothing in the current set up to believe that's going to happen.
RT
Roar Rookie
I don't really buy this "you can't use injuries as an excuse" line. Sure it would be poor form for a coach to say that straight after a match, but as fans we will debate all sorts of reasons our team lost and what-if scenarios. It is not our place to make excuses, but we should be able to discuss the impact of injuries without being cut off and told it is not a valid point. If you ask why isn't Richmond doing as well this year, I might tell you they miss some of their injured players. This is fact not an excuse.
TomC
Roar Guru
Honestly, that list was just never as good as it was made out to be pre-season, by Ryan and others. I really think it's healthier to re-visit the analysis that led to such over-the-top predictions for Melbourne, rather than stubbornly insist that anyone who predicted them to slide is a liar and a fool.
Grints
Roar Rookie
Obviously the inclusions of May and Lever wont improve the forward line but they will limit the leaking in defence. As for the forward set up thats a multi layered issue at the moment. Weederman and McDonald are not in form and i wouldnt mind if they were sent back to Casey for a stint just to get their hands on the ball. The second issue is the quality of ball entering the forward 50. A massive amount of entries are not going much further than a few meters in - not deep enough by a long way. Then there are the crumbing forwards - they just arnt working hard enough to be at the fall of the ball when it hits the ground, or hard enough to lock the ball in. The problem is not unfixable - but id suggest they use the remaining 16 games of the season to get it right in a real scenario.
Grints
Roar Rookie
Richmond havnt had to play a Frost to cover Rance though... the issue here is depth.
Jack
Guest
Worse, Walls said the WCE would win the wooden spoon!
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
But still...with McPharlin and Johnson and Sandi...and the rest...we'd be premiers. Can't see any pertinent argument there, Cat. Do you think Lever and May won't improve Melbourne?
Parkside Darren
Roar Rookie
Ryan, I don’t agree on the quality of the list. They lack speed, clean ball users and key forwards. And then they traded Hogan – go figure. And saying go backwards to go forward, at this stage of their development, is the worst call I’ve ever heard. They need to fight to finish as high as possible.
Ditto
Roar Rookie
I think Melbourne should amalgamate with North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs. Call themselves Melbourne Kangaroos and play in the Bulldogs strip. They would be a lot more representative of the city of Melbourne than this club. They may even win a premiership!
Cat
Roar Guru
No. Your story was quite different when Freo was playing finals and making a Grand Final. You didn't care who was available because Freo had 'depth'. Injuries are factors in a teams performance but to use it as an excuse is terrible form. Lists are 40 deep for a reason.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
That's not quite how it works. You, too, can believe the return of Lever and May won't make a difference. I differ. WC might just have played better with Barrass against Port, but you could be right, his presence may have had no impact.
John Allan
Guest
"Develop a tank". Unintended pun.
User
Roar Rookie
They have hbf and a midfield which is where rebound comes from duh
Jonsey
Guest
I think the Demon's have been drinking too much Johnny Walker and spending too much time in their Jaguar cars (it beats having Infiniti as a sponsor). I don't want another rebuild of a rebuild again.