The completion of Round 6 sees us a quarter of the way through the 23-round AFL home-and-away season. It’s enough of a time to do a stocktake and see were each team sits.
It’s clear now that at least two of last year’s finalists will be taking September holidays.
Sydney are every inch a bottom-six side, somehow looking both young and stale at the same time. Buddy Franklin, such a key to their forward-line functionality, has looked slower and less damaging than ever before.
Melbourne’s record after six rounds isn’t that far removed from what they were in the Mark Neeld days. How is it possible that a team can be so far off the pace in terms of ground coverage, especially a preliminary finalist from the previous year?
The Dees will possibly click at some stage and go on a run, but they are woefully out of sync at this stage, and finals don’t look a possibility.
It would also be a surprise to see Hawthorn feature in the finals, so they should be the third team that drops out from 2019. They have a 3-3 record, but two of their wins have been less than convincing against the likes of North Melbourne and Carlton. Losses to the Bulldogs and St Kilda don’t augur well for their overall chances.
Geelong is the clear pace-setter after being tipped as a likely slider. Chris Scott has rejuvenated and revitalized his team, with a host of new faces in the side and older ones taking on different roles. The Cats are ranked number one in both attack and defence at this stage, and are playing with all-important balance.
Collingwood have done a lot right to be sitting third on the ladder, indicating that they will once again be a contender. A deep midfield and forward-line sees them very formidable.
Amidst significant injuries to Alex Rance, Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin, Jayden Short and Shaun Grigg, Richmond have revealed a player depth that most didn’t believe existed. With three wins in a row and a 4-2 record, it’s a platform that should see finals action once again.
Greater Western Sydney are on track to play finals for the fourth consecutive season. Their best has been stunning, as seen in wins over Essendon, Richmond and Geelong, but losses to West Coast and Fremantle were on the weak side and lacking heart. So, business as usual for the Giants.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
West Coast are a bit of a crossroads in their premiership defence, standing at 3-3. Their three losses have been by 44, 42 and 58 points, and from a scoring perspective they’ve averaged only 52 points in these matches. It’s an ugly set of numbers.
The Eagles are losing the midfield battle, which in turn isn’t allowing them to dictate matches from their half of the ground and set up their back half intercept game.
Essendon and Adelaide were the most heavily tipped to jump into the eight after missing out last year, and both sides have shown reasons for and against that line of thinking.
The Bombers stood in the gates in the first two rounds, but have since corrected to a 3-3 record. While not winning, they showed their run and gun game style could stand up against a quality opponent on Anzac Day, but it must be noted their three wins have come against teams all ranked in the bottom four for defence.
The Crows looked turgid in the first month, but two wins in a row may have sparked their confidence. An easy kill at home against the Gold Coast Suns was perhaps just the tonic, which they followed up with a good away win over a St Kilda side that had been in good form. They may be up and running now, but the jury is still out.
A number of bottom sides from last year have improved, including Brisbane, Carlton, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and St Kilda.
The Lions play an unapologetically attacking game, and are always great fun to watch accordingly. There is nothing to be afraid of in their run up to the Round 13 bye either, so their 4-2 record could double. It’s a base from which they can target finals.
The Blues have been in every game, despite only claiming victory once. They’re on the right track. The Suns shocked most with their 3-1 start to the season, but reality has struck in the last two weeks with losses to Adelaide and Brisbane by 73 and 49 points respectively. Still, already they’ve defied expectations.
Fremantle and Port should be knocking on the door of finals all year, and at least one of them could be featuring in September.
The Dockers have won their three games against visitors at home, indicating Optus Stadium can be a stronghold for them. An important away win over GWS showed the type of steel they often haven’t on the road, but that must be coupled with a loss to the Suns as well. Their next three matches see Adelaide (away), Richmond (home) and Essendon (away). Let’s see where they sit after those three tests.
The Power have been quite consistent across six weeks. Remarkably, their lowest score has been 87 and their highest 95. They are making teams beat them, which a couple have, but in each of those losses they were in front with 10 minutes to go. Similar to Brisbane, they want to take the game on and hit the scoreboard, and so far it is serving them well.
The Saints have also been a feelgood story, taking advantage of striking teams at the right time. They are certainly more organised and disciplined than they showed last year, playing with a sense of purpose.
North Melbourne have put in two of the worst performances from any side this year, an 82 point loss to Freo in Round 1 and a 58 point loss to Essendon on Good Friday. Both losses felt double to what the margin actually was. They’re conceding 100 points per game and scoring only 70 themselves. There is no star factor and no hope.
The Western Bulldogs got off to a 2-0 start, but have since faltered with four losses in a row. They’ve averaged 64.5 points per game in these losses, kicking more behinds than goals each time. This is symbolic of their skill level overall, which can kindly be called atrocious.
Is anyone game to pick a final eight this far out?
Let’s go with Geelong, Collingwood, Richmond, GWS, Essendon, Port, West Coast, and… the winner of Fremantle vs Adelaide this week.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Ha Blakey. When you are a tragic Pies fan who has just witnessed yet another Grand Final slip away, you don't end up with much petrol left in the tank.
Blakey
Guest
Peter -why have you mellowed so much this year. Not firing everybody up amymore
13th Man
Guest
Think you have the wrong year there mate, you knocked us out a week earlier at Subiaco, I remember it clearly as we were 5 goals up at half time and folded. Would have played Sydney in a GF which considering how they played that day you would of won... who can tell though it's in the past.
reuster75
Guest
Your point about Freo's draw speaks to a wider point about why the season has been so unpredictable so far and that's the draw. A lot of the top sides from last year have played each other and a lot of last year's bottom sides have played each other so it's created an artificial look to the ladder. WCE have played Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood away, GWS, Freo and Port at home so I expect them to improve as their draw evens out. Pies have played Richmond, WCE and Cats from last year's top 8. Tigers have played Pies, GWS (away) and Swans. Cats have played Pies, Dees, GWS, Eagles, Hawks. GWS have had WCE and Cats away, Tigers and Swans. So I expect over the next 6 weeks as the top sides play a lot of the bottom sides from last year we'll see big shifts in the ladder. Swans and Dees are gone, Hawks look vulnerable but have an annoying habit of turning things around and by virtue of games in Tassie will still make it so I reckon only 2 spots up for grabs in the 8.
Bruce
Guest
Sydney?
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
Would have belted Freo in the GF Alas.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
Yeah, we have depth for the younger guys but the midfield are standing up, Rockliff, Boak & SPP have been good all year and Wines found some real form last week, add in Sam Gray who's kicking bags at the moment and I'd say the veterans are doing ok. Also, the backline has been growing together for about four years, Port will be hard to score against all year, a straight swap for Pittard to Burton is worth at least a goal a game as well. Good signs, the talent is there, it's just the expectation they need to deal with now.
Bruce
Guest
I think the hawks are in the best 10 or so teams and maybe even in the best 8, but can't see them making finals because their draw ramps up massively from here. WCE twice, GWS twice, Brisbane twice, Geelong again, tigers, pies, port, Fremantle. How many of those do they win?
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
I wouldn’t bet either way. & I would say WCE not Richmond in 4 but the rear up for grabs.
Birdman
Roar Rookie
Nah Hawks are going to make finals. Maybe.....
User
Roar Rookie
But victories like the premiers managed over Collingwood and gws are a greater indication of strength than losing in horrific manner like Richmond did.
User
Roar Rookie
We beat gws and Collingwood and you managed what? Big losses that's right. Beat a contender and I'll be more happy to say Richmond have great form.
User
Roar Rookie
Klompy backing your opinion Sheesh. Richmond aren't a guarantee imo based on who they've beaten and the manner in which they've lost, take out geelong, Collingwood or gws and I'd be impressed.
big four sticks
Guest
A loss to front runners, like Port, at home is not exactly screaming finals.
anon
Roar Pro
Collingwood did lose on their home ground to two contenders in West Coast and Geelong -- two non-MCG tenants. They beat Richmond, so 1-2 on their home deck against contenders. Probably out played by Essendon too for significant portions of that match. I'm not sure why everyone is gung ho about them. They're probably a chance for the premiership on account of being the only MCG tenant in the "top 4" real contenders. I'm not sold on Fremantle. 4-2 was par before the season started. They are 4-2. Unconvincing in 4 of their last 5 games. Lyon is talking about needing luck to make the finals, but they have an easy draw and the most stacked forward line in the league. Collingwood has Mason Cox as their focal point for crying out loud.
Duckworth-Lewis
Guest
We beat Port Adelaide away with an under strength side. You could not even beat them at home with a full strength side. Richmond are far better placed to win the premiership than West Coast.
The Ghost
Guest
We are without our star all Australian full back, and we have been without Riewoldt, Dusty, Cotchin, and Houli for the most part. We are doing pretty well considering. Good teams find a way to win. We have cobbled together a team yet we still find a way. Watch out when we get our full strength team back. Word is that Rance will be right come finals. West Coast, on the other hand, are looking flaky. Even Klompy conceded this.
Grand-Dag
Guest
Most interesting start to the year. If the Hawks had beaten Geelong in Round 5 we would have had three quarters of the teams on 12 points. Round 6 has provided a bit of guidance but there is still a lot of movement to come. Easy draws and easy games v hard games has coloured the ladder positions so far but will even out a bit as the season matures. The biggest question mark hangs over the blow-out losses by the 'top' teams (Eagles) and the close losses by the 'bottom' teams (Carlton) and whether this is an idiosyncrasy or a portent of future results. So basically we are really not much closer to pinning down the second half of the eight assuming Geelong, Collingwood, GWS and Richmond snaffle the top spots. (Don't get to use the word snaffle enough)
Voice of Reason
Roar Rookie
Decent summary Cameron - all of which says that at this stage it is a very even season, which is in contrast to a very uneven draw. The AFL is such an unbalanced competition because of the number of teams, games, locations and the nature of the draw. My Eagles have their first game against a (so-called and you must always respect your opponent) weaker opponent this week. Every game has been tough. A few years ago North was something like 9-0 and missed the Finals because of an easy draw, so don’t get too excited about St Kilda, Gold Coast, Fremantle for the Finals even if they do well for now. Once you get to Finals there is no hiding place. I find it hard to go past Collingwood this year. Burning desire from last year, depth in squad and a game plan that is tested and should avoid big score differentials, so you are always in the game.
Baz
Guest
Well I'm never tipping Melbourne again... ever... in 2019...