The only stat that matters for the Broncos

By 5t3v3 / Roar Rookie

I get that Anthony Seibold is under a bit of pressure.

I get that he wants to take pressure off the players.

I get that “moneyball” is now a buzzword among coaches, but I don’t get the over-reliance on stats above and beyond what’s actually happening on the field.

Here’s a post-game quote from the Brisbane coach.

“We showed some real glimpses,” Seibold told reporters after his Broncos were thumped 38-6 by his former club South Sydney on Thursday night.

“Believe it or not, tonight was our best defensive display as far as effective contact, I think we were at 92 per cent. We made more tackle breaks than Souths tonight, we missed less tackles but we were on the wrong side of the scoreline.”

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

My guess is their ‘ineffective contact’ percentage was off the charts.

I am far from a Broncos diehard, but I find it hard to believe that any real rugby league fan watching that game was saying, “We really missed a lot less tackles than the other mob out there, and did you see our effective contact percentage? Whew!”

It is far too early to say that Seibold’s coaching won’t be a success in Brisbane, but I worry about an over-reliance on stats that are meaningless.

Not all stats, of course, are meaningless.

Penalties are important, so count those.

Tackles and metres run are also important, so make a note.

Also, I’ve developed a stat called the ‘comparative score measure’. In this one, you work out your score as a proportion of the opposition’s.

You’d like it to be in excess of 100 per cent.

The Broncos on Thursday was 15.8 per cent.

That’s the only stat that matters.

The Crowd Says:

AUTHOR

2019-05-07T06:55:33+00:00

5t3v3

Roar Rookie


Too right Adam. There are a few other things with the 'moneyball' approach too. Baseball is a game of measurables. Home Runs, RBI's, batting average, hits. These stats all have value though. If you have a team of people that have more hots & RBI's than the next team, you do well. Baseball is a game that lends itself to stats. Although, I would also point out that the Oakland Athletics, the team that came up with Moneyball, lost in divisional series playoffs.

2019-05-06T05:47:21+00:00

Adam

Roar Guru


I'm a bit late to this one, but what people don't often think about when considering Moneyball style play was the length and breadth of a MLB season. In a season of 162 games teams need to play the infantile percentage games. How a right handed pitcher has a slightly lower ERA against a team with a majority of left handed hitters etc etc is important when that guy has 25-30 starts in a season and will pitch to 20-30 batters each time he takes the mound, becomes more important than some of the random metrics the NRL is coming up with. Moneyball is effective partly because an outstanding MLB season is anywhere north of 90-100 wins in the regular season so a loss every 3 games is always going to be factored into the long game.

2019-05-06T00:47:45+00:00

Danny

Guest


Wayne Bennett is not the victim in all this. The guys a snake. He hasn't won a premiership with all the resorces that have been suplied to him since the Dragons stint when he burnt the broncos last time. Souths fans remember how the dragons pumped the broncos at suncorp in the semis last year. The broncos couldnt win with wayne and a better roster than souths. Enjoy while you can bunnies lets see how you go in the finals????

2019-05-05T05:01:48+00:00

Superspud

Roar Rookie


Yeah 100% but to be fair it's a different situation. Belamy has no concerns about job security or reputation. He also knows his team is assured a top finish and as such he can say what he thinks with honesty. I don't think Siebold can say "We are lacking in football intelligence and effort at crucial times. These "rock stars" need to put their imaginary scrapbooks in the recycling and dig in. We need to accept that some of these guys are not as good as they think and in reality we are just making up the numbers in this competition ". I could go on.

2019-05-05T04:17:55+00:00

Dogs Boddy

Roar Rookie


Look to Craig Bellamys press conference as an example of how it should be done.

2019-05-05T01:01:05+00:00

steveng

Roar Rookie


Well said 'rden' my exact thoughts and feelings on this whole saga!

2019-05-05T00:17:44+00:00

Superspud

Roar Rookie


I think we have to put post match press conference comments into perspective. What do we expect losing coaches to say? I don't think and I do hope that what they say there is not what they say to players behind closed doors.

2019-05-04T20:36:59+00:00

Nico

Roar Rookie


+1

2019-05-04T11:23:02+00:00

Insider

Roar Rookie


You have a great culture yeaaaah! Wasn’t that long ago you had Keary walk out! But yes presently you guys are in a good place, and playing some solid footy, plenty of improvement I feel to go next level but you are very close

2019-05-04T11:18:33+00:00

steveng

Roar Rookie


IMO, the coaching thing is just a formality a club that has a good culture and good management, like the Bunnie have always had. Its imperative to get rid of the incompetent entrenched individuals that make bad decisions and/or bear grudges, like it happened at the Broncos and the Panthers, hence, their position today!

2019-05-04T09:44:47+00:00

I would like to see

Guest


I wonder if Broncos directors are so convinced now they had to get rid of Wayne Bennet,Darren Lockyer was involved as well , you are all an ungrateful pack of individuals whom have no respect for what Bennet did for this club , twice you showed him the door , I would like to see each one of you miserable individuals apologise and fall on your sword or I for one will never support this club again. You have let your egos cloud the fact you had a legend coach

2019-05-04T09:36:02+00:00

Insider

Roar Rookie


Agreed mate, 3months is long time in footy, you definitely got the better deal BUT, what will happen when wayno goes?

2019-05-04T09:33:25+00:00

rden

Roar Rookie


Sadly most news/columnists (even including Kent who normally I admire) and Rotho (who's dated but usually still a straight shooter) keep talking Seibold up. One common phrase is along the lines of, "he's a thinker rather then action man." Ummm, guys, "thinking" about scoring doesn't actually get points on the board. Seibold moves into a club and does nothing - even the bunnies only improved (a bit) by not changing anything - it's like using chopsticks, the more you do the same thing over and over it's natural the better you get. Anyway what this tells me even the newso's (aka experts) don't have a clue what Seibold brings. Another common newso phrase is "he's a nice guy, well liked by everybody." Well so is Barney the Dinosaur, should he be the next coach? Where's anything you can point at on a score sheet and say "that was Seibs?" Anything? Even with a grumpy Bennett serving his last year on notice where do you think the Broncs would be? No matter how pissed off he was Benny's own pride wouldn't let him sink the Broncs to where they are now.

2019-05-04T09:31:40+00:00

steveng

Roar Rookie


lol and 6 months later we say “thank god that he is gone” as and if “god forbid” and the Bunnies were in the same boat as the Broncs, we would have gotten the same! As I said before, Seibs had seasoned players at the Bunnies and he had nothing to do for our success, it was all there for him, pretty similar to what Bennett has this year!

2019-05-04T04:15:45+00:00

Emcie

Roar Guru


Darius was never demoted though, he was the only guy left that could play at centre. It got to the point where the only actual centre left had to start off the bench because they were having to look for players outside the 30 man squad

2019-05-04T03:00:07+00:00

Paul

Roar Guru


I'm trying to work out how teams ever won games, let alone premierships, when the only stats the coaches cared about were who won the scrums, the penalty count and what the scores were? Obviously the coaches in the first 90 years of the game had some gift or power that allowed them to not know or care about these other measurements, yet still win games. Perhaps a few coaches could give up the stats for a week and see if that helps with their coaching.

2019-05-04T02:53:46+00:00

Dutski

Roar Guru


Great read. Welcome to the dark side of authorship. Sometimes you need to get the little things right to be in with a shot of getting the big things right. But if your only focus is the little things you can miss the big things altogether. Just trying to remember- did he have to make any big calls at Souths? You know - bench Inglis or move big Sam?

2019-05-04T02:51:07+00:00

steveng

Roar Rookie


All I can say is 'thank god that he left' lol

2019-05-04T01:21:15+00:00

JOHN ALLAN

Guest


I guess if press conferences are compulsory, coaches have to find something positive to say. What about "we were right in the game until kick off".

2019-05-04T01:19:02+00:00

jimmmy

Roar Rookie


The Broncs CSM was also very poor Rellum. No consolation for Siebold there.

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