Geelong has finally become the team they were supposed to be.
After a number of years of middling finishes and non-threatening finals performances, the Cats are setting the pace in the first third of 2019.
They have already beaten their most obvious challenger, Collingwood, and last year’s premiers, West Coast. The latter was by a convincing 58 points, winning all four quarters, in a display of control and ferocity.
Essendon, a lower level challenger but still seen as a likely finalist, was dispatched in a similar manner to the Eagles. Hawthorn and Melbourne, fallen September players from last year, have also been shown the door. A win over Adelaide in Adelaide rounds out their six victories.
Each of these wins was worthy enough in and of themselves, but as a collective they have been an awesome feat in a season that has seen unpredictability reign.
Geelong’s only loss came to GWS by four points, in a match they were in front for 75 per cent of the time.
The forward line has been the most celebrated part of the Cats season so far, replete with new faces and one particular dual Brownlow medalist who is spending most of his time there.
Tom Hawkins has led Geelong’s goal-kicking for seven years in a row, and will likely do so again despite sitting second at the moment, but his percentage of the teams goals has dropped to 14.9 per cent from 20 per cent last year. The Cats are averaging 96 points per game as opposed to 91 last season.
Cats player Tom Hawkins. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Gary Rohan has been one of many finds in the forward half of the ground, with 15 goals from six matches. Only twice in nine years at Sydney did he kick more than that. His set shot kicking has been a feature.
Luke Dahlhaus has also appreciated a fresh start at a new club, back to his high pressure best and second at the club for tackles. Gryan Miers is a new face that has provided a spark, with canny ball use and a sharp eye for goal.
And then there’s the little master, Gary Ablett. He has relished his new role in the forward-line and his last two performances, against Hawthorn and Essendon have been virtuoso displays of talent and experience.
Geelong are ranked number two for attack, but number one for defence.
Their backline is working in perfect harmony at the moment, led by Tom Stewart and Mark Blicavs. The former was named All Australian last year, and the latter was in the extended squad. Both are performing well above those established levels.
Harry Taylor has been rejuvenated after his career looked finished at various stages over the last two seasons. Jake Kolodjashnij looks more assured as each season passes and hardly makes a mistake with ball in hand any more.
There’s plenty of inexperience down back too. Jordan Clark has showed off pinpoint precision in his first season. Mark O’Connor has also been good and wasn’t the lock to make way for Tuohy that many thought. Jack Henry has been getting the job done in lock down roles. These three haven’t even played 50 games between them.
Patrick Dangerfield, Tim Kelly, Mitch Duncan and Joel Selwood make up a star-studded midfield that also has Sam Menegola and Cam Guthrie rotating through. Rhys Stanley has become something of a powerhouse in the ruck, capable of winning his own clearances, taking a strong grab, and chipping in for an important goal.
Patrick Dangerfield of the Cats (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
It must be said, being top of the table at this stage of the season isn’t a great bet for when it comes to winning the flag. Only two of the most recent 15 premiers led the league after Round 7. In that time, Geelong has been on top twice (2008, 2013) and not gone all the way.
In fact, in all three of the Cats flags in 2007, 2009 and 2011, they were never on top after seven rounds. In recent years we’ve come to expect that hot September form trumps five months of home-and-away grind but, in reality, it’s almost always the case.
Still, Geelong are looking well balanced all across the field. They have five matches until their bye, all against teams currently outside the eight. They’re taking on those below from a position of strength.
The second half of the season will be theirs to control.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
Let's not get the cart before the horse. Richmond had an incredible injury free run before the wheels fell off and its a credit to them that they havent died completely. The Injury boogy man could visit the Magpies, Cats or both and seriously derail their seasons. I would argue that since the competition has rebalanced a little since the GWS induced talent shortage, the flag finalists are getting harder to predict. The premier may still come out of left field yet with less than half the season played.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
The only reason talking about favouritism at this stage of the season is if you are after longer odds for who wins the GF. But, from a bookies perspective early season bets are all juice because everyone looks only at the odds for their own favoured team and not the way the spread adjusts the price. There is no doubt that Collingwood's return at the bookie's window is going to be lower than a team of equal ability but fewer supporters because of the volume of money behind Collingwood.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
One of the features of how teams trained 20 or more years ago was that they were trained to peak in the finals. This meant that effectively the value of early season wins was discounted against late season form. However, under Chris Scott, Geelong seems to take a different strategy banking early wins and then managing the fitness and work loads of their key players. I do not know if this a Scott strategy, but I think that it is an impressive way to bring a strategic advantage from opponents' an apparent blind spot in most opponent's strategies. Geelong's recent poor late season form has cost them in the finals, but I am unsure of if the two are related.
Mungbean74
Roar Rookie
Yep, Rooke came to mind as well. Hopefully no major hamstring injuries like Rooke! What a game he played in the ‘09 Final! Finished with the last touch I think!
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Yep
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Pies are favourites purely because volume of money, take it with a grain of salt.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
And destroying our confidence like back then
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Yep. Tell me about it your holiness
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
I like to watch teams ability to hit the scoreboard and am wary of overreacting to ladder position and general noise about how great or how terrible teams are. The cats may well win but .... Brad Scott is an amazing coach and though North may not be in the same ball park as the cats as far as results have gone they may be storming down the race. Carlton aren't terrible and the only reason they got thrashed was that they weren't prepared for a North team who finally gelled. The Bulldogs are in a similar boat. They surprised Richmond. Mental preparation is huge in coaching. It's probably the main determining factor in team performance. All this talk about not having the cattle is only true up to a point. One player will blossom under one coach but blunder under another. The nature of the preparation is determined by the impression of the quality of the foe. Carlton expected North the cellar dwellers to turn up and got North the scoring machine. I expect North to become better than at their Prelim best of a few years ago at some point this year and it may not be too far off. The only safe preparation is to treat every week like it's a GF. Then you'll be ready when one does come up.
Parer Ben
Roar Rookie
Just saying rehearsals look good so far this year
ChrisH
Roar Rookie
Either the Cats are very underrated, or the Pies are way overrated. Because the Cats' form is significantly better than Collingwood's yet they're both equal favourites for the flag and most commentators favour Collingwood. Cats beat Collingwood at the G. Cats beat Eagles (at home) and Dons at the G. The Pies lost to the Eagles at G, the Pies' home ground, and also struggled to beat the Dons there - giving up a 5 goal lead mid second quarter to win by just 4 points. Again, the same ground, the Cats had no such problems against the Dons. On scoring, Geelong have the second best forward line and best backline so far. The Pies sit fourth in both categories. Everything points to Geelong being clearly the best team. And then not much separates the Pies and the Giants.
Peter Warrington
Guest
Good for them
michael RVC
Roar Pro
You guys have had these players over the years, and obviously some bewdies now, amazing.
Dave
Guest
Who said anything about the coach? You may be correct about this weekend game, who know what the future holds. But based on this year's form, to suggest North are in the same ball park as the Cats, well you're either a one-eyed north supporter or have zero clue about football. I'm guessing the former, so I can't blame you for being optimistic, but a big win against Carlton is hardly reason to expect they'll get within 5 goals of this Geelong team.
Parer Ben
Roar Rookie
MCG 2019 games played:3. MCG 2019 games won 1: 3.
Parer Ben
Roar Rookie
Exactly. The off season Re-think was about winning finals hence the reshuffle of selwood and Ablett has as much to do with protecting their bodies, so when finals come they’re cherry ripe.
Peter
Guest
Not as relevant as the three-peat Lions, then? Although two of those games did give the Wobbles a couple of their relevance-making RUs. :-)
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
Calm down yourself Davo. Maybe even take a nap. Not many coaches would have got North to two preliminaries. I expect a ding dong battle.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
The Cats aren’t trying to hold them. What is happening is there is no goals and therefore no run out of the middle (this is how we get most goals). Oops just told all the other coaches. In regards North, they always give us a good run for our money, often beating us.
Dave
Guest
Calm down Goalsonly, North turned it on for one week following a week of intense media scrutiny, against arguably the worst team in the comp. Now they're a threat to the league leaders? They get their opportunity this week I guess, but I'll be shocked if they get anywhere near the Cats...